Electric Vehicles

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by ghawk4

Being in the Automotive business for almost 40 years, I can tell you electrics are coming, albeit slower than regulators would want. Hopefully they will realize eventually that there will come other technologies that can realize zero emissions and endorse a broader range of options. I can also say with certainty that I will never own one but my kids probably will. Of course I am the type that has never had a Facespace account and social media beyond youtube is out of my grasp. Old guys like me will eventually die off and the flexibility to adopt different technologies are the hallmark of next generations. That is the beauty of evolution - whether we agree or not doesnt really matter in the long run - its going to happen. Good discussion of the details in this thread - all of the details matter to someone, but not everyone, even though they will all have to be addressed at some point.

What we are seeing now is a delay in EV programs from all manufacturers, US and European. Couple this with lower volume expectations and all of the components for EV's are more expensive to produce. Programs that were supposed to start in 2025 are now being scheduled for 2028 at 40-50% of the original volumes. Take rates for EV components that are in current production are down significantly from forecasted volumes (except for Tesla that is maintaining but down from peak). All of this together makes for a tough marketplace for suppliers and puts the OEM's in dangerous BOM territory to ever turn a profit. Its a vicious cycle, without the volumes, the price cant go down and without competitive pricing, the volumes cant materialize.

More than my $.02, but thanks for the discussions.

And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with any of that. Once us old curmudgeons can no longer yell at kids to get off our lawn they’ll have a free ride to build whatever the market demands.

But unless and until that happens (I’m 46 so I still have a few more years to yell at kids to stay off my lawn) regulating by forcing EVs down people throats and federally subsidizing private businesses to switch is why people are fed up with the administration.

Let the market dictate - not the deep state.

[ghawk4]

LOL, for sure and I think that is why we are seeing such a decline in expected volumes. The OEM's are realizing that the market cant be force fed as quickly as expected and why the CAFE rules have just been relaxed.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by ghawk4

LOL, for sure and I think that is why we are seeing such a decline in expected volumes. The OEM's are realizing that the market cant be force fed as quickly as expected and why the CAFE rules have just been relaxed.

God willing the CAFE rules - and the people who enforce them - are going to go through a serious “reduction” over the next few years.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by ghawk4

LOL, for sure and I think that is why we are seeing such a decline in expected volumes. The OEM's are realizing that the market cant be force fed as quickly as expected and why the CAFE rules have just been relaxed.

You do realize that 2nd quarter sales were released earlier this week and that sales of electric vehicles set a record, right? The rate of growth has slowed but there is still continued growth in sales. Instead of 43% y-t-y growth, EVs are growing at 10% y-t-y or less. But still growing. The 2nd quarter has EV sales 11% higher than 2nd quarter 2023, which was a record then.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g6...inners-losers/

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...2024-ev-sales/

[ghawk4]

Of course they are growing. The trend is always gonna be up. What I’m talking about is a customer that forecasted buying 2.4 million parts for next year a few years ago and now they will only take 50,000.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by ghawk4

Of course they are growing. The trend is always gonna be up. What I’m talking about is a customer that forecasted buying 2.4 million parts for next year a few years ago and now they will only take 50,000.

Yeah, we’re seeing a lot of that. We spend a lot of time talking to suppliers who drank the OEM kool-aid, vintage 2021-22. All the OEMs were jumping out saying “we’re going to be 50% EV by next week” and “we’re spending $10 gajillion on new battery plants”. They were tripping over each other trying to out-announce each other. If we had added up all the volume claims of all the automakers (we did, actually) the total volume would have pushed sales way beyond the record sales years of 2017-19. Those years were in the 17 million sales per year category. All of the claims and announcements for EV would’ve pushed total vehicle sales over 20 million.

This past year the automakers have been dialing back their expectations to something a lot more believable. Problem is, they’ve gotten suppliers to tool up capacity for their earlier way too high volume projections. The worst case scenario, we’re working with a supplier who invested $XX,000,000 in a new facility. Then the vehicle they were tooling up for got delayed. Twice. And, as it finally approaches production, the volume is cut in half. The supplier has been sitting on an empty plant for two years. They’re asking us to help find additional uses for the plant.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

They’re asking us to help find additional uses for the plant.

I have the perfect solution: build an ICE Camaro there

[genxer]

I think your explainations also show how monumental of a task replacing petroleum fuels is. There were many articles about Tesla firing their supercharger team with an alarmed tone. It seems many consider their 'gas station' build out their strength. A battery swap system makes most sense if a luxury make alliance thinks spending on it will kick start another round of early-adopter hype.

Do areas with high electricity rates as a cross-reference, still show EV sales growth? I still don't think EV is smart as a mass-market replacement. Regulations and targeting give beancounters ammo to make gas vehicles like the 'Nox and non-existent compact sedan lame on powertrain.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

To be honest it’s something I don’t get into. We have supply chain analysts who dig deep into that stuff. If they say “nothing to see here” I’m good with it. There is one material shortage I am concerned about. Just sent my customer the detail on it. It’s something that most people have never even heard of. Hopefully we’ve provided my client enough support to avert the shortage. Won’t know for sure for several years though.

This statement of yours bugged me. Enough to have my head up a bull's arse looking for a T-bone. Thinking the butcher would confirm it, if I could find it somewhere. Does anyone else know what material shortage Martinjlm was speaking of?

[genxer]

Originally Posted by olrocker

I have the perfect solution: build an ICE Camaro there

Lordstown, OH should be cheap to get back.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

I think your explainations also show how monumental of a task replacing petroleum fuels is. There were many articles about Tesla firing their supercharger team with an alarmed tone. It seems many consider their 'gas station' build out their strength. A battery swap system makes most sense if a luxury make alliance thinks spending on it will kick start another round of early-adopter hype.

Do areas with high electricity rates as a cross-reference, still show EV sales growth? I still don't think EV is smart as a mass-market replacement. Regulations and targeting give beancounters ammo to make gas vehicles like the 'Nox and non-existent compact sedan lame on powertrain.



This statement of yours bugged me. Enough to have my head up a bull's arse looking for a T-bone. Thinking the butcher would confirm it, if I could find it somewhere. Does anyone else know what material shortage Martinjlm was speaking of?

It’s huge. Forget the automakers for a second and think about the suppliers. Work with the idea that there is a transition in full effect. Development funding for ICE has all but dried up, so no money for bringing new components to market and no new contracts from OEMs for ICE components. If you’re a supplier you want to hang on to what you have. On the other hand, OEMs are making public statements about how many EVs they’re gonna sell by when and they have to align suppliers to deliver components. So you have ICE suppliers that have to deal with remaining profitable while their volume slides downward. And you have new suppliers, many whom have never dealt with auto companies before, being told “you need to commit to this volume at that price”.

So one side of the scale, you have legacy suppliers who have to manage the prospect that a large portion of their business will go away with no obvious replacement. On the other side of the scale you have suppliers new to the industry operating with inflated promises and struggling to stay alive long enough to be there when the real volume comes.

I’m going to stop repeating myself with respect to battery swapping. All I’ll say going forward is “wake me when it happens”.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

You do realize that 2nd quarter sales were released earlier this week and that sales of electric vehicles set a record, right? The rate of growth has slowed but there is still continued growth in sales. Instead of 43% y-t-y growth, EVs are growing at 10% y-t-y or less. But still growing. The 2nd quarter has EV sales 11% higher than 2nd quarter 2023, which was a record then.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g6...inners-losers/

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-in...2024-ev-sales/

This is excellent news! Looks like consumer demand can drive the EV train from here. We can finally roll back all the regs and consumer incentives from government, and let ICE die without any force of policy applied.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by Capricio

This is excellent news! Looks like consumer demand can drive the EV train from here. We can finally roll back all the regs and consumer incentives from government, and let ICE die without any force of policy applied.

Except ICE will never die in our lifetimes. The infrastructure supporting them is just too big. I'm hoping for a nice naturally occurring balance.

[0stones0]

Originally Posted by mlee

Except ICE will never die in our lifetimes. The infrastructure supporting them is just too big. I'm hoping for a nice naturally occurring balance.

Absolutely on the mark sir!

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by mlee

Except ICE will never die in our lifetimes. The infrastructure supporting them is just too big. I'm hoping for a nice naturally occurring balance.

Me too, but...

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Development funding for ICE has all but dried up, so no money for bringing new components to market and no new contracts from OEMs for ICE components.

Still waiting for the next gen Trax with staged turbos blowing into a 900cc grenade that can fool some SAE test stand into believing it can get 74 mpg for 5 min (with 0W-5 viscosity rated oil in the crankcase). Yeah, ICE has a bright future in the current regulatory environment.