Electric Vehicles

[bsn]

I am in the electric industry and can say for certain electric rates WILL be rising sharply in five years. Grid hardening and renewable energy are the primary driving forces, half the country driving electric cars won't help.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

I'm going to defend Jim, even though I disagree with some of his assessments lately. He's very knowledgeable and over the years I've appreciated his posts on this forum with an auto industry insider's experience, knowledge, and opinion. I also think it's easy to be too close to something, live/work in a bit of an echo chamber since you are deep into an industry, get really bad/skewed data in this day and age for a variety of reasons, and as always, there are many ways to interpret that data and come to differing conclusions.

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

All this and, given he is not hiding behind a screen name and is completely transparent about who he is, he really couldn't say 'EVs are being prematurely shoved down our throats' even if he wanted to. I suspect his employment would come to an abrupt end.

Hey guys, now you have me all verklempft. Thanks for the kind words. Let me try to boil down what I usually take 5 or 6 paragraphs to say…

• EVs are coming and they are going to be a majority of new vehicles sold globally and in the US. That genie is already out the bottle and will not be going back in.
• The big issue is WHEN will the scales tip. Some forecasting sources say for the US it will be 2030. Some say 2035. I’m more inclined to believe 2035. Maybe even a little later.
• ICE vehicles will still be manufactured and sold beyond the time that I and most on this site are dead and gone. The choices will, however, be significantly reduced as automakers make decisions to focus more on BEV than ICE. We are already seeing that in where and how much the automakers are spending on BEV development versus ICE development.

There is a lot of discussion on these pages about the OEM slowdowns, as if this is a brick wall, a change in strategy, or a realization that “Omigod! We were wrong“. It’s not. It’s not a stop sign, it’s a yield sign. For two years OEMs were tripping over themselves to make the most aggressive announcements to please their shareholders and boards of directors. Now that they have to talk to their boards and investors they are “correcting” their earlier statements. Example…GM said a couple years ago that they would be producing 400,000 EVs per year by 2024. Since then, they have launched Cadillac Lyriq. A year and a half later, Lyriqs are still trickling out of the factory. Not because people don’t want them (my boss is still waiting for hers) but because GM hasn’t gotten production up to speed as fast as they need it to be.

Same with Blazer. Equinox was supposed to be available for sale by now. It’s not. So what GM said was that they’re not gonna reach the 400k by 2024 target. Doesn’t mean that they are changing their product plan. They’ll get there. Just later than they told everybody they would get there. Repeat that same moment of realization at the boardrooms of Ford, Stellantis, Honda, etc. Meanwhile, on the other front, BP has just announced that they will be adding $100M of Tesla chargers to be placed at their gas stations. Makes sense since now all the other OEMs are setting up their vehicles to use Tesla chargers.

[Capricio]

I've asked before, where is GM with regards to Solid State tech? The only OEM I see in the news going all in with solid state development is Toyota. And, asking for your opinion, martinjim... what will the market effects of solid state be on "legacy EVs" if/when solid state hits mass production? Are we overstating the "wait and see" caution? or is solid state just a big nothing burger?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I've asked before, where is GM with regards to Solid State tech? The only OEM I see in the news going all in with solid state development is Toyota. And, asking for your opinion, martinjim... what will the market effects of solid state be on "legacy EVs" if/when solid state hits mass production? Are we overstating the "wait and see" caution? or is solid state just a big nothing burger?

Solid State is in a position of the technology has been proven, but manufacturing at scale has not. Any “statements” of when solid state is coming are projections at best. Sorta like projections for Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles. “Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles are the vehicles of the future and always will be”. Ok, solid state probably has a bit of a firmer footing than that, but we’ll see.

For the first few iterations of solid state, expect to see it in low volume primarily luxury focused vehicles, since production scale will likely be very low and as such, very expensive. Toyota will probably lead, meaning Lexus vehicles first.

Market effects on “legacy vehicles” remains to be seen. Tesla is famous for making significant changes on the fly. Look at a battery pack in a 2020 Model Y right next to a 2023 Model Y (I have) and you’ll see that they are significantly different, even though no announcements of changes were ever made. So Tesla can probably make the change from liquid substrate to solid state fairly transparently. GM has said that their Ultium battery packs are agnostic of battery chemistry, so that would set them up pretty well if that’s true. Beyond that, I would expect any automaker making the change would handle it just like a program major change (adding a new powertrain) is done in current ICE vehicles. Very manageable.

[m6-lt1]

Everyone saying gas prices will go down when there is less demand must not have paid attention to the last 2 years. While I would absolutely LOVE for gas prices to go down while people around me drive EV’s that’s not going to happen. Just like they are doing right now, they will decrease production to far below capacity in order to artificially create demand thus leading to higher prices.

[genxer]

Might as well read the company defend itself, and try to parse through the investor PR.

The link site has limited freebies.
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-t...ll-transcript/

[docwra]

Originally Posted by jamala00

I need to mark this post and come back to it in 5 years.

Even if that was true (which is very doubtful) Why would anyone buy an EV today if that was going to be the case in just 5 years. Why wouldn't you just wait?

Did you actually read my post? Im living in a country thats ~5 years further down the EV road than the one you live in, Im literally telling you what is going to happen in the USA.

EV demand and sales in Europe are increasing constantly, there are big waiting lists for nearly every car and nearly every EV owner has or will replace with another EV.
Solid state batteries that charge in 10 minutes and offer 1000+ miles of range ALREADY EXIST, they arent magically going to become undiscovered

Sure, the cost of power might increase but that will affect your household spend a lot more - EV charging is only a fraction of my overall energy bill.

Again, I dont understand why theres so much negativity towards EVs on this forum, telling the GM employee thats quoting hard facts and the guy who owns an electric car they dont know what they are talking about ....... I dont get it.
No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by docwra

Did you actually read my post? Im living in a country thats ~5 years further down the EV road than the one you live in, Im literally telling you what is going to happen in the USA.

EV demand and sales in Europe are increasing constantly, there are big waiting lists for nearly every car and nearly every EV owner has or will replace with another EV.
Solid state batteries that charge in 10 minutes and offer 1000+ miles of range ALREADY EXIST, they arent magically going to become undiscovered

Sure, the cost of power might increase but that will affect your household spend a lot more - EV charging is only a fraction of my overall energy bill.

Again, I dont understand why theres so much negativity towards EVs on this forum, telling the GM employee thats quoting hard facts and the guy who owns an electric car they dont know what they are talking about ....... I dont get it.
No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

[0stones0]

Originally Posted by docwra

No-one is forcing you to buy one (yet!) so why all the hate?

Like how you through in the word “yet” in your statement. For alot of us, that’s pretty much the sourness to the whole ordeal. “Forcing” is a good word to describe the process.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

Ummm…its a hotrod forum…yes, we like “vroom vroom”.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

Originally Posted by 0stones0

Like how you through in the word “yet” in your statement. For alot of us, that’s pretty much the sourness to the whole ordeal. “Forcing” is a good word to describe the process.



Ummm…it’s a hotrod forum…yes, we like “vroom vroom”.

So then I’m not wrong, eh. Exactly why I said it. Hot rods go vroom vroom. EVs don’t.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It’s because they don’t go “vroom vroom”

That's being more than a bit dismissive, don't you think? I think the ICE crowd has provided some compelling arguments about marginal environment impacts, high prices, low consumer demand, impacts to power rates/grid/generation, limited range, comparatively slow charge times, battery degradation, insufficient charging access for long distance travel, near horizon tech leading to possible rapid depreciation looming, dependence on foreign interests for rare earth elements, poor performance in cold temperatures, etc etc.



and yeah... we *really* don't like having government mandates and subsidies overriding consumer demands to manipulate the marketplace. This *is* being forced upon us, albeit not all at once.



...but okay, "VROOM VROOM", whatever.

[Gen6cyl]

To my understanding uk gas prices have always been very high. Ev would be good for them. The U.S. has lots of Petro under us. We don't need our government making the choice for us. We can have both and be successful. For the next at least 10 years I can see U.S. Petro working better for us by keeping electricity cheaper.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

That's being more than a bit dismissive, don't you think? I think the ICE crowd has provided some compelling arguments about marginal environment impacts, high prices, low consumer demand, impacts to power rates/grid/generation, limited range, comparatively slow charge times, battery degradation, insufficient charging access for long distance travel, near horizon tech leading to possible rapid depreciation looming, dependence on foreign interests for rare earth elements, poor performance in cold temperatures, etc etc.



and yeah... we *really* don't like having government mandates and subsidies overriding consumer demands to manipulate the marketplace. This *is* being forced upon us, albeit not all at once.



...but okay, "VROOM VROOM", whatever.

Actually it was meant to be funny and not dismissive but I can see how it can come across that way. This thread could use a dose of humor.

As far as being forced upon us, to some degree, but by whom?

I would say that if it is being forced it’s being forced by the automakers.

So many say it’s Biden…most automakers committed to Carbon Neutral BEFORE the 2020 elections. Most in 2019, some in 2020.

Some would say by EPA and NHTSA. Nope. You can’t find an EPA or NHTSA rule that says “people have to buy EVs”. Arguably the rules that are coming for 2027 and beyond will make it tougher for automakers to manage a portfolio of ICE vehicles. But the automakers are the ones making the strategic choice to NOT invest in new ICE technology to meet the upcoming emissions regulations and to invest in EVs (zero emissions) instead.

CARB? Ok…that’s a good point. If you live in California, Oregon, Washington New York and a handful of other states. But that doesn’t kick in until 2035. And it only applies to NEW vehicles. It doesn’t say you can’t buy a used ICE or keep driving the one you have. It also doesn’t say you can’t buy the vehicle in a non-CARB following state and then bring it into your own state.

So, who else might be “blamed” for this if not the automakers?

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

So, who else might be “blamed” for this if not the automakers?

Instinctively, everyone knows it is governments and governmental agencies. But there is enough plausible deniability to allow arguments such as you make.

So lets just say that it is the automakers. Maybe they all looked at Tesla and said "WTF! Here is a company making a relatively few shitty (at the time they were) electric cars and they are already valued higher than us". So they all decided to mortgage their futures in pursuit of that market.

Or maybe not, who knows.

Regardless, even if, for the sake of argument, it is the automakers, forcing is forcing and lots of people don't like it.