Electric Vehicles

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by mlee

Except ICE will never die in our lifetimes. The infrastructure supporting them is just too big. I'm hoping for a nice naturally occurring balance.

This is true. As long as there are use cases where ICE has an advantage there will still be some ICE. Also, there are still regions in the world which will transition a lot slower than China / Europe / North America. Also, vehicles already in operation have to be supported and that’s gonna keep ICE around for decades.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

This is true. As long as there are use cases where ICE has an advantage there will still be some ICE.

So, what is left, if EVs are superior in every way? Commercial towing applications and full size trucks/SUVs with base trims starting over $55k or more, with enough margin at enough volume to offset EV losses? Well, thank goodness the OEMs carved out enough policy loopholes/exceptions to keep them alive, at least for now.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by Capricio

So, what is left, if EVs are superior in every way? Commercial towing applications and full size trucks/SUVs with base trims starting over $55k or more, with enough margin at enough volume to offset EV losses? Well, thank goodness the OEMs carved out enough policy loopholes/exceptions to keep them alive, at least for now.

I don't think anyone has even remotely said EVs are superior in every way.

Time and place for everything

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by mlee

I don't think anyone has even remotely said EVs are superior in every way.

Oh there are people walking amongst us who actually believe that.

The scarier thing is, they drive amongst us too

[silversleeper]

Originally Posted by olrocker

Oh there are people walking amongst us who actually believe that.The scarier thing is, they drive amongst us too

Not here. IDK why you are so enraged? Chill. You clearly didn't watch the Ford CEO videos I posted. If EVs work better for most of us in daily driver mode what exactly is your problem with that? It has nothing to do with deepstate and regulations and global warming for most of us. for how many people in other countries have voluntarily switched. Because it saves them money and works better for them overall. The crazy talk of fires and battery failures and being locked in your car, yeah sure. Show me actual % of that compared to an electrical or engine fire in ICE. The hate really gets old as the Ford CEO said.

I remember when my father machined a dual fuel propane gasoline carb adapter and thought it would sell in huge numbers.
Yes it did save money on fuel but was a pain in the butt to refuel and keep tabs on the smaller range. For most applications it isn't popular not to mention challenges like lubrication gasoline provides which was over his head.
I like to consider or explore more efficient alternatives such as different fuels but I am not nuts and want to adopt every thing that comes along nor force anyone else to. That goes for most people.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by jamala00

Actually yes... MartinJim has said that a few different times. The last time was in the EV thread in the 6th Gen Camaro Forum that was last removed, so I can't go back and quote it... but he said... "EV's are far superior in almost every way except for towing."

Well there you go... "almost"

...and it's the same thread whether you are on Camaro 5 or 6

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

So, what is left, if EVs are superior in every way? Commercial towing applications and full size trucks/SUVs with base trims starting over $55k or more, with enough margin at enough volume to offset EV losses? Well, thank goodness the OEMs carved out enough policy loopholes/exceptions to keep them alive, at least for now.

Originally Posted by mlee

I don't think anyone has even remotely said EVs are superior in every way.

Time and place for everything

People who live in apartments and condo complexes with no access to dedicated parking or places to plug-in.

Heavy load hauling.

Long distance towing.

RVs are probably a long ways off in terms of EV application.

There will be ICE around for a while, just fewer choices among them.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by silversleeper

Not here. IDK why you are so enraged? Chill. You clearly didn't watch the Ford CEO videos I posted. If EVs work better for most of us in daily driver mode what exactly is your problem with that? It has nothing to do with deepstate and regulations and global warming for most of us. for how many people in other countries have voluntarily switched. Because it saves them money and works better for them overall. The crazy talk of fires and battery failures and being locked in your car, yeah sure. Show me actual % of that compared to an electrical or engine fire in ICE. The hate really gets old as the Ford CEO said.

I remember when my father machined a dual fuel propane gasoline carb adapter and thought it would sell in huge numbers.
Yes it did save money on fuel but was a pain in the butt to refuel and keep tabs on the smaller range. For most applications it isn't popular not to mention challenges like lubrication gasoline provides which was over his head.
I like to consider or explore more efficient alternatives such as different fuels but I am not nuts and want to adopt every thing that comes along nor force anyone else to. That goes for most people.

I know what he said. He’s stuck with the pressure for regulations. He HAS to say that.

Europe AIN’T America.

California AIN’T Ohio.

And that’s all I’m sayin about that.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

People who live in apartments and condo complexes with no access to dedicated parking or places to plug-in.

Heavy load hauling.

Long distance towing.

RVs are probably a long ways off in terms of EV application.

There will be ICE around for a while, just fewer choices among them.

...doesn't sounds like a great balance, with very limited ICE choices for consumers.

Originally Posted by mlee

I'm hoping for a nice naturally occurring balance.

Sorry if I scoff at all the fawning press about the growing EV sales, with the full force of (not naturally occuring) regulation, tariffs, grants, and consumer inscentives from the government. While is ICE forced to compete with both hands tied behind it's back. It'll be interesting if/when $2 gas becomes a real thing again.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by jamala00

Actually yes... MartinJim has said that a few different times. The last time was in the EV thread in the 6th Gen Camaro Forum that was last removed, so I can't go back and quote it... but he said... "EV's are far superior in almost every way except for towing."

I seriously doubt that I said “far superior”. I don’t typically toss around superlatives carelessly like that. I more than likely said as good as or better than…except for towing and hauling.

The funny thing is that within my company I get criticized by some for pushing back on the high growth rate of EVs and the timing of an inflection point.

So, once again, for the record here is my unfiltered view on 1) Capability of EVs, 2) What is driving the growth of EVs, 3) the long term position of EVs / ICE, and 4) The reasoning behind EV incentives. Feel free to quote this when describing what martinjlm may or may not have said about EVs.

Capability of EVs
Today’s vintage of EVs can cover more than 95% of the typical use cases of drivers in the US. The most glaring weaknesses are in towing and hauling heavy loads for long distances. So…what does that mean? I live in Detroit. A lot of people in Detroit have boats and play with them on the weekend. We have a lot of lakes. If I had a Silverado EV with 400 mile range and I wanted to use it to tow my boat to the Detroit River or Lake St. Clair, no worries. It can handle that. Heavy load, short distance. Now, if I wanted to tow that same boat to Traverse City? Nope. Not trying that. Heavy load, long distance. Too many issues with publicly charging an EV truck with trailer attached so this is something I would personally go to great lengths to avoid. EVs are still in early phases of technology maturity. They are only going to get better, more capable, more efficient, and lower in cost.

What is driving growth
The answer to that question varies depending on which regions we are talking about. In China it started with regulation combined with incentives and a bit of strategic view where it was recognized that the path to leadership in the auto industry is more direct when introducing the next technology rather than playing catchup on the older technology. Example…China skipped widespread wiring of fiber optics for land-based based telephone and went straight to cellular on a mass population basis. China now leads the world in telecom. China is skipping ICE based autos in favor of EV. Regulations and incentives are put in place to promote that. Add to that the fact that China is the world’s largest auto market and now you have everyone’s attention. Everyone being automakers.

In Europe the primary driver is climate change. The European Union is keenly focused on reducing the carbon impact of manufacturing and transportation. Both of those impact the auto industry. Regulations on ICE emissions are put in place to significantly reduce carbon emissions in the use of automobiles. Incentives are put in place to promote a shift by manufacturers and consumers towards more zero emissions vehicles. The fact that OEMs have shown that they can produce EVs with considerable range and the fact that manufacturing costs of EVs at decent scale is an achievable goal has shaped OEM strategies.

In North America the drivers are more complicated. China and Europe have already set EV development on a path to develop more efficient, cleaner vehicles. North American OEMs are taking that as a given and looking at other angles. That’s why Chinese and European OEMs are focused on making reasonably cost everyday use EVs and US automakers started out making super quick EVs with four-wheel steering and WTF and Ludicrous modes. In the US more so than anywhere else on the planet power sells. But at the same time pretty much every vehicle manufacturer that sells vehicles in the US has voiced support for the Paris Accord and has set goals for the company to meet Carbon Neutrality. There is no way they can reach Carbon Neutrality without a vehicle portfolio that has a strong penetration of EV. Carbon Neutrality goes beyond the emissions of the vehicles they produce. It also includes the manufacturing processes and facilities operations of all of their plants and offices.

Additionally, and I’ve said this before, when the automakers get to scale manufacture of EVs, their manufacturing and product development processes can be streamlined to the tune of billions of dollars. GM, for example, can replace Alpha, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Chi, and VSS-F with one skateboard architecture plus one premium derivative. They can replace T2XX and 31XX with one skateboard on frame architecture. They can replace CSS, HFV6, Small BlockV, and L850 engines with 3 or 4 scalable electric motor designs. They can replace 8Lxx,10Lxx, 8Txx, 9Txx with 2 or 3 drive units. And they can avoid the costs of continued development of new technologies to improve emissions and fuel economy of ICE products, especially given that none of these new technologies will be priceable.

This post is already too damn long so I’ll address the other two points later.

[Martinjlm]

Position of ICE / EV short term & long term
In the short term (now - 2030) I expect that we will continue to see more models of EV introduced in the small, small premium, mid-sized and mid-sized premium utility segments. These (along with pickups) are the most popular vehicles in the US auto market and they are highly competitive. I think the most important vehicle on the market right now is the Equinox EV. It’s the first real example of an automaker offering an affordable EV that is usable by most people for all intended design uses. Anybody who has an Equinox as a primary vehicle could easily replace it with an Equinox EV and not miss a beat. The Equinox EV starts at $41,900.Equinox ICE base prices range $27,995 - 34,795. When you factor in content differences the price delta is reduced, since th EV has more standard content than the ICE.

Some could argue that the Tesla Model Y should be considered the first affordable, but I have to point out that is not where Model Y started. It is capable of doing everything that any ICE utility in its class is capable of, but it was originally launched with pricing in the $60,000 range and it’s logical to believe that most people consider that it is still priced in that range. Through a series of price reductions it is now priced starting at $45,000. A little more than an Equinox EV, but also in a larger more premium market segment. The average price of a new vehicle in the US 2023 was $48,008 so it falls into the affordable category.

So, more entries in the crossover an SUV segments in the short term. That is likely to expand into new entries in the large SUV categories. This is where it gets interesting. The traditional automakers make an incredible amount of profit on their large RWD SUVs. Tahoe / Yukon, Suburban, Escalade, Expedition, Grand Cherokee, etc are all cash cows. So the parent companies are not going to be in any hurry to replace them with EV models. But, non-traditional automakers who have been locked out of this lucrative product segment have nothing to lose and will begin to bring alternative 6+ passenger vehicles with impressive feature content to the segment. The traditional automakers will need to introduce similar EV product simply to defend their turf.

The first shots have already been fired. Rivian R1S and Kia EV9 are already well received in market as alternatives to 3 row 6+ passenger ICE utilities. The pricing of the Kia EV9 in particular is right in the middle of the pricing range for Chevrolet Tahoe. Add to that the cost savings of operating on household supplied electricity vs gasoline and the Kia EV9 begins to look more attractive by comparison.

The thing is, this is the type of vehicle that is also most considered for long distance family travel and that touches on the biggest concern with EVs in general. Common perception works against 3-row 6+ passenger EV and will slow the adoption, particularly for non-traditional automakers. But when the traditional automakers are pushed into the market, they will need to assist the non-traditional automakers in pushing back on elements of common perception that are factually incorrect. That could be game changing.

Perception: It will take hours to charge the EV on road trips.
Fact: Effective recharging can by done in roughly 20 - 40 minutes depending on size of battery and vehicle’s charging system capability. Hyundai-Kia currently has the fastest charging system in the industry. The Kia EV9 and can charge from 10% to 80% in 24 minutes

Perception: It is difficult to find places to charge.
Fact: Every EV sold on the US market today has charging station location information embedded in their navigation systems. These location services target and navigate to charging stations when prompted. In my experience driving an EV and just randomly “checking” to see where charging stations are I have always been able to identify multiple charging locations within 20 miles of my current position. No, I haven’t driven through Iowa, the Dakotas, Montana, and other upper Midwest states that will be among the last to add infrastructure so there’s that. Tesla opening up their Supercharger network to other brands more than doubles the availability to fast charging solutions for anybody considering an EV.

Long term (2030 - beyond) I expect to see broader development of additional form factors for EVs. Once the crossover / SUV segments get saturated with available models, expect to see different form factors start to emerge. Sedans and coupes may be positioned for a comeback since they would no longer be constrained by illogical EPA shadow area math. Also, the skateboard platform lends itself to high flexibility design bandwidth for the tophat, the part of the vehicle the customer sees. This is also the point in time where ICE start to see the most significant increases in cost and resultant prices. As EV volume goes up, ICE volume will trend down. This will deteriorate the scale advantage that ICE products have today at the same time that the scale position of EVs improves. In addition to the scale impact on cost, ICE will continue to carry unrecoverable cost for content required to make them compliant from an emissions standpoint. ICE will continue to be viable, but the applications are likely to be consolidated around a few form factors in order to maintain some semblance of scale through use of common components. I expect that ICE pickup trucks are around for the long haul (pun intended) and will be consolidated with the design and manufacture of Class 1 - 3 commercial vehicles. Until such time that EVs can efficiently tow and haul heavy loads for long distance ICE pickups and commercial vehicles will be needed. One of the reasons I’ve been pushing back with our forecasters on EV adoption rates. As long as ICE pickups are available, there will be buyers who will buy them even if an EV pickup can meet their requirements.

The other reason I don’t see EV going 100%, even in the states that have passed ICE bans is the fact that 17% of US households live in multi-family conditions (apartment buildings and complexes, condominiums) and a large percentage of them do not have access to a consistent parking place or charging point. EVs make the most economic sense when the owner can eliminate gasoline purchases in favor of increased electric bills. Until the approach to home charging solutions for multi-family dwellings is solved, ICE will be required to service that part of the population. There are solutions being worked and I mentioned some in this thread https://www.camaro6.com/forums/showp...postcount=2174. But until they become commonplace, EV cannot be 100%.

[90503]

Curious about one issue...

Are EVs inherently harder to steal for some reason? Auto thefts seem unsolvable, and perhaps I have heard wrong, but EVs seem like this is less likely to happen. Is it the tech?...lack of market for stolen EVs?...Do EVs have some inherent deterrent that ICE does not?

Or are they just as easy to steal as any other car?

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

What is driving growth
The answer to that question varies depending on which regions we are talking about.

I would argue that policy is trying to force growth in europe and north america, with an obsession over tailpipe emissions on consumer vehicles, at the expense of every other environmental impact. Consumer demand will eventually follow because of a lack of ICE alternatives. I know you keep saying the OEMs willingly dove into this headfirst. Whatever, without policy in place, they never would have rushed into this. We don't need to rehash this, just agree to disagree.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Additionally, and I’ve said this before, when the automakers get to scale manufacture of EVs, their manufacturing and product development processes can be streamlined to the tune of billions of dollars. GM, for example, can replace Alpha, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Chi, and VSS-F with one skateboard architecture plus one premium derivative. They can replace T2XX and 31XX with one skateboard on frame architecture. They can replace CSS, HFV6, Small BlockV, and L850 engines with 3 or 4 scalable electric motor designs. They can replace 8Lxx,10Lxx, 8Txx, 9Txx with 2 or 3 drive units. And they can avoid the costs of continued development of new technologies to improve emissions and fuel economy of ICE products, especially given that none of these new technologies will be priceable.

A hamburger helper menu with varying portions of pasta, hamburger, and a small diverse packet of seasoning to create the illusion of uniqueness. Tell the rich people they are getting Michelin Star quality by giving them a larger portion, and the poor people they are getting great value in a smaller portion. What an exciting era awaits us as consumers. Will these skateboards excel at everything, from off-roading to autocross?

[Mr_Draco]

Originally Posted by 90503

Curious about one issue...

Are EVs inherently harder to steal for some reason? Auto thefts seem unsolvable, and perhaps I have heard wrong, but EVs seem like this is less likely to happen. Is it the tech?...lack of market for stolen EVs?...Do EVs have some inherent deterrent that ICE does not?

Or are they just as easy to steal as any other car?

I think this article covers your questions rather nicely.

https://www.topspeed.com/electric-ve...heives-report/