2016 NFL predicition thread

[Kenny Camaro]

I stand by my statement that 20 minutes of poor defense that lead to 5 consecutive scoring drives had more to do than two offensive plays in the out come of the game. Tell me, these stats that your quoting, are they compiled against the Patriots defense in super bowl games, or are they averages compiled against an average of all teams? Because if there not direct averages against the Patriots defense in at least playoff situations, again, that deems them at least inaccurate, if not entirely irrelevant. Have a nice day!!

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

I stand by my statement that 20 minutes of poor defense that lead to 5 consecutive scoring drives had more to do than two offensive plays in the out come of the game. Tell me, these stats that your quoting, are they compiled against the Patriots defense in super bowl games, or are they averages compiled against an average of all teams? Because if there not direct averages against the Patriots defense in at least playoff situations, again, that deems them at least inaccurate, if not entirely irrelevant. Have a nice day!!

The 99.6% stat is based upon the amount if time left on the clock 8:31, even if ATL doesn't get the 1 yard, they still burn 40 seconds off the clock. If they do get the first down, they burn an additional 2 minutes plus off the clock. Game over.

So lets say they don't make it. The avg. net punt for ATL was 40 yards, this puts NE at their OWN 25, not the ATL 25, requiring them to go 50 more yards. They averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense for the game, This takes 8.5 plays. The 25 yard drive took 2:28.

Based upon NE's fantastic play in the 4th, and even though this drive took almost 30 seconds per play, lets have them doing the extra 50 yards in 7 plays, at 15 seconds per play. This is 105 seconds, add 7 more for the hang time of the punt, that's 112.

Ryan did also squander at least 6 seconds by snapping the ball without running the play clock down in the 4th, I don't know if there were other instances, but lets just go with the 6. 118.They also get another 40 seconds of clock runoff by running the ball on the 3rd and 1. We're at 158 seconds.


ATL burned only 50 seconds off the clock when they had the ball 1st and ten on the NE 22 with 4:40 left, squandering another 1 minute and 10 seconds of game clock, if the FG is missed, though highly unlikely it is, this burns 4 more seconds. add 74 to the 158 and you have 232 seconds, or 3 minutes and 52 seconds.

When NE gets the ball for the drive that ties the game, the clock had 3:50, they did have 2 timeouts, so lets say they called them perfectly, Belichick doesn't make mathematical mistakes like Shanahan does, so save 1:00 of game clock.

This gives NE the ball with not 3:50, but 58 seconds to drive and score the touchdown that tied the game. The drive actually took 2:53.

The point I've been trying to explain has nothing to do with NE's play in the 4th. It was terrific. That is fact.

It's also fact that ATL only had to on 3rd and 1, run for no gain and punt. On 1st and 10 from the 22, run 3 times, and kick a FG.

Also saying that Matt Bryant misses from inside 45 yards is giving NE a huge break, as he went 32 of 33 from 45 yards and in for the year. That's 97%.

You know the really ironic thing? I played golf today with a longtime friend of mine who is an avid Patriots fan of over 30 years.

You know what the first thing he told me was when we began to discuss the game? "Shanahan is an IDIOT!"

Yes the PATS played a great 4th quarter, but Shanahan's ridiculous play calling prevented ATL from taking the best option for them to win the game. Run the ball , and burn the clock.

If you saw when it was posted during the game. No team had EVER come back from a deficit of 19 points in the 4th quarter in 93 playoff games in the NFL?

Why? If the team with the 19 point lead manages the ball and the clock by running the football, it's less then 1% possibility that the other team can mount a comeback! Because they won't have enough time to do it! Shanahan DIDN'T DO THIS!!!!!

Again the PATS played fantastic in the 4th, but they had the time to accomplish the comeback because Shanahan GAVE THEM THE TIME TO DO IT!!!!!

You don't squander time that you can burn off the clock when your playing a team with the one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, against a team that has 4 superbowl victories, and one of the best coach's ever in the game!

Kyle "Bonehead" Shanahan did exactly what he shouldn't have. ANYONE WHO KNOWS ANYTHING ABOUT FOOTBALL KNOWS THIS!!!!

Being that you don't understand the difference between a FG and a XP, explains why you cannot grasp this simple concept.

But you will still deny it.

Go on believing that the PATS won ONLY because of their great play, and ATL's defense in the 4th. The idiot (Shanahan) who did what he did even admitted after the game that he blew it.

You don't understand football, or any game that has the concept of time restrictions with a huge lead.

If your in a boxing match with 12 rounds and you win the first 9, the only thing you need to do for the remaining 3 is run around the ring, stay away form your opponent, and win the fight!

It's NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

[Royal Tiger]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

Good goin R.T. Think it will last over 100 years? Lol.

I can try!!!!

[Kenny Camaro]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

The 99.6% stat is based upon the amount if time left on the clock 8:31, even if ATL doesn't get the 1 yard, they still burn 40 seconds off the clock. If they do get the first down, they burn an additional 2 minutes plus off the clock. Game over.

So lets say they don't make it. The avg. net punt for ATL was 40 yards, this puts NE at their OWN 25, not the ATL 25, requiring them to go 50 more yards. They averaged 5.9 yards per play on offense for the game, This takes 8.5 plays. The 25 yard drive took 2:28.

Based upon NE's fantastic play in the 4th, and even though this drive took almost 30 seconds per play, lets have them doing the extra 50 yards in 7 plays, at 15 seconds per play. This is 105 seconds, add 7 more for the hang time of the punt, that's 112.



Ryan did also squander at least 6 seconds by snapping the ball without running the play clock down in the 4th, I don't know if there were other instances, but lets just go with the 6. 118.They also get another 40 seconds of clock runoff by running the ball on the 3rd and 1. We're at 158 seconds.


ATL burned only 50 seconds off the clock when they had the ball 1st and ten on the NE 22 with 4:40 left, squandering another 1 minute and 10 seconds of game clock, if the FG is missed, though highly unlikely it is, this burns 4 more seconds. add 74 to the 158 and you have 232 seconds, or 3 minutes and 52 seconds.

When NE gets the ball for the drive that ties the game, the clock had 3:50, they did have 2 timeouts, so lets say they called them perfectly, Belichick doesn't make mathematical mistakes like Shanahan does, so save 1:00 of game clock.

This gives NE the ball with not 3:50, but 58 seconds to drive and score the touchdown that tied the game. The drive actually took 2:53.

The point I've been trying to explain has nothing to do with NE's play in the 4th. It was terrific. That is fact.

It's also fact that ATL only had to on 3rd and 1, run for no gain and punt. On 1st and 10 from the 22, run 3 times, and kick a FG.

Also saying that Matt Bryant misses from inside 45 yards is giving NE a huge break, as he went 32 of 33 from 45 yards and in for the year. That's 97%.

You know the really ironic thing? I played golf today with a longtime friend of mine who is an avid Patriots fan of over 30 years.

You know what the first thing he told me was when we began to discuss the game? "Shanahan is an IDIOT!"

Yes the PATS played a great 4th quarter, but Shanahan's ridiculous play calling prevented ATL from taking the best option for them to win the game. Run the ball , and burn the clock.

If you saw when it was posted during the game. No team had EVER come back from a deficit of 19 points in the 4th quarter in 93 playoff games in the NFL?

Why? If the team with the 19 point lead manages the ball and the clock by running the football, it's less then 1% possibility that the other team can mount a comeback! Because they won't have enough time to do it! Shanahan DIDN'T DO THIS!!!!!

Again the PATS played fantastic in the 4th, but they had the time to accomplish the comeback because Shanahan GAVE THEM THE TIME TO DO IT!!!!!

You don't squander time that you can burn off the clock when your playing a team with the one of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL, against a team that has 4 superbowl victories, and one of the best coach's ever in the game!

Kyle "Bonehead" Shanahan did exactly what he shouldn't have. ANYONE WHO KNOWS ANYTHING ABOUT FOOTBALL KNOWS THIS!!!!

Being that you don't understand the difference between a FG and a XP, explains why you cannot grasp this simple concept.

But you will still deny it.

Go on believing that the PATS won ONLY because of their great play, and ATL's defense in the 4th. The idiot (Shanahan) who did what he did even admitted after the game that he blew it.

You don't understand football, or any game that has the concept of time restrictions with a huge lead.

If your in a boxing match with 12 rounds and you win the first 9, the only thing you need to do for the remaining 3 is run around the ring, stay away form your opponent, and win the fight!

It's NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

What's the percentage of you waking up tomorrow and still clinging to this fantasy that even you admit doesn't mean that Atlanta wins the game. Where both of my points, A, that if the Falcons executed the plays in question, that will haunt you the rest of your life, or at least a very high percentage of the remainder of your conscious existence, with any semblance of competence, or B, that their defense could have forced a stop in the final 17 minutes of the game, they would have had a much better chance at being successful than your scenario. Again , HAVE A NICE DAY!!

[Kenny Camaro]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

If your in a boxing match with 12 rounds and you win the first 9, the only thing you need to do for the remaining 3 is run around the ring, stay away form your opponent, and win the fight!

It's NOT ROCKET SCIENCE!

This is the thinking that cost them the game. In my decades of watching football, 95% of the time when teams play the clock with a big lead and lots of time left, the lead evaporates . Oh and the boxer that stops fighting gets knocked out and loses, just like your Falcons! HAVE A NICE DAY!!

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

What's the percentage of you waking up tomorrow and still clinging to this fantasy that even you admit doesn't mean that Atlanta wins the game. Where both of my points, A, that if the Falcons executed the plays in question, that will haunt you the rest of your life, or at least a very high percentage of the remainder of your conscious existence, with any semblance of competence, or B, that their defense could have forced a stop in the final 17 minutes of the game, they would have had a much better chance at being successful than your scenario. Again , HAVE A NICE DAY!!

Your points are completely IDIOTIC!!!!!

You don't try to EXECUTE a high risk play when on two different occasions, when you have a play that gives you a 99.6% and 98.1% chance of winning the game. YOU DON'T DO IT!

ATL's defense held NE to a FG, burning 5 minutes off the clock in the 4th.
Putting their offense in position to simply RUN OFF THE CLOCK.

There is no better option available then the 99.6% and 98.1% options.
You DON'T RUN A PLAY THAT HAS A SIGNIFICANTLY LESS CHANCE!

ONLY AN ABSOLUTE IDIOT DOES THIS!!!

So far there are two people who would do this, Shanahan and Kenny.

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

This is the thinking that cost them the game. In my decades of watching football, 95% of the time when teams play the clock with a big lead and lots of time left, the lead evaporates . Oh and the boxer that stops fighting gets knocked out and loses, just like your Falcons! HAVE A NICE DAY!!

PLEASE PUT THE CRACK PIPE DOWN NOW!!!!!!

Prior to this game. A team leading by 19 or more in the fourth quarter of a playoff game was 0 for 93 losing the game.

Your stating that 95% of the time they lose???

100% IDIOTIC!!!!!!

[sherob]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

Oh and the boxer that stops fighting gets knocked out and loses, just like your Falcons! HAVE A NICE DAY!!

Right... Like Ali's Rope-A-Dope?

[Dmpsix]

A huge factor you guys are forgetting is the fact that the Falcons' D lets the Pats put up not one but TWO, 2 point conversions.

Had the Patriots been stopped on one of those, we wouldn't be having this conversation.

[3 SS's]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

OK I missed this play, must have happened when I was in the bathroom.

It has no bearing however upon the fact that ATL was 99.6% and 98.1% in the two plays where Shanahan went against these odds to call a higher risk play.

So ATL had one holding call in 17 plays, That's 5.9%... in the 3 plays where they didn't run the ball instead of pass, this gives them a whopping 1% chance of committing a hold in these 3 plays.

ATL actually averaged 2.3 yards the 2nd half running the ball, but again, this doesn't matter.

What does matter is they elected to go with risky plays, versus a 99.6% and a 98.1% option.

My figure was from after they were up 28-3, which seems to be what you are fixated on...and it was 1.4

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by 3 SS's

My figure was from after they were up 28-3, which seems to be what you are fixated on...and it was 1.4

The only thing I am fixated on is 2 horrific play calls by Shanahan.

The yards gained per run is not nearly as important as not running the ball at all in these situations.

YPR doesn't have anything to do with the fact that at 8;31 with 3rd and 1 ATL was a 99. 6% fav if they just run the ball, they don't even need to gain the yard for the first down. Burn the clock, punt the ball if you don't make it.

This also makes no difference when they had the ball 1st and 10 at the NE 22 with 4:40 left as a 98.1% fav. They don't need to gain a single yard. Run three plays into the back of your offensive line to the line of scrimmage, burn the clock, kick the FG.

Even if it misses, you run enough time off the clock so NE cannot score the touchdown that tied the game.

It's kind of hard to do something that took 2:50 in 58 seconds!

[3 SS's]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

The only thing I am fixated on is 2 horrific play calls by Shanahan.

The yards gained per run is not nearly as important as not running the ball at all in these situations.

YPR doesn't have anything to do with the fact that at 8;31 with 3rd and 1 ATL was a 99. 6% fav if they just run the ball, they don't even need to gain the yard for the first down. Burn the clock, punt the ball if you don't make it.

This also makes no difference when they had the ball 1st and 10 at the NE 22 with 4:40 left as a 98.1% fav. They don't need to gain a single yard. Run three plays into the back of your offensive line to the line of scrimmage, burn the clock, kick the FG.

Even if it misses, you run enough time off the clock so NE cannot score the touchdown that tied the game.

It's kind of hard to do something that took 2:50 in 58 seconds!

But not impossible

[CFD]

Hate to add fuel to the fire but there was nothing wrong with the plays called PROVIDED the Falcon's executed them properly. The whole team, from coaches to players failed in the 4th quarter.

[PoorMansCamaro]

Wow, people really don't understand the importance of coaching. Of course if all the plays are executed properly, there would be no discussion. But then again, your coach needs to put you in the best situation to succeed. I mean, if any play called is good, as long is it's executed, then why have a coach at all? Is Bill Belichick the same as....Rex Ryan? Is Shanahan the same as McDaniels? Coaching matters. Play calling matters. Situational awareness matters. Knowing what your best chance to win, and call those plays, matter. As Joe has been saying, ATL might have still lost, but Shanahan definitely didn't put his team in the best chance to win category, when all you had to do was run the clock down to win the Super Bowl.