2016 NFL predicition thread

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by CFD

Just curious, what would have happened if the punt was blocked and recovered by NE? Wouldn't be the first time. There are so many variables in a game, you can guess and speculate all day and night but you never know until it happens.

The Falcons didn't have a punt blocked the ENTIRE season!

Here are the facts of the game.

Coming into the third quarter, Atlanta was dominating both sides of the ball. The offense had run only 19 plays, but that’s because it was executing with the efficiency that made the Falcons tied for the eighth-highest-scoring team in NFL history. Ryan had completed seven of eight passes for 115 yards and a touchdown for a perfect 158.3 passer rating. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman had combined for 86 yards and a touchdown on nine carries (9.6 yards per tote).

Defensively, Atlanta forced a LeGarrette Blount fumble and confounded Brady, sacking him twice and forcing three New England punts. When Robert Alford picked Brady off with 2:33 left in the half and returned the interception 82 yards for a touchdown, it looked like the rout was on.
The beginning of the third quarter brought more of the same. When Ryan hit Coleman for a 6-yard catch-and-run touchdown at the 8:31 mark, Atlanta pushed its lead to 28–3.

On paper, it was, essentially, over. Atlanta spent most of the third quarter and the early part of the fourth with a win probability of 95 percent or better. All the Falcons had to do was run the ball, squeeze the clock out, and then pop champagne bottles.

Instead, Shanahan kept his foot on the gas. After Brady hit James White for a touchdown to cut the lead to 28–9 (Stephen Gostkowski missed the extra point) with 2:06 left in the third, the Falcons completely abandoned their run game.

From that point on, even with a huge lead, they ran the ball just four more times for 10 yards. Freeman picked up 71 rush yards in the first half*… and finished with just 75. And when they did pass, it was rarely to their best receiver; Julio Jones finished the game with four catches*… on four targets.
While it took more than two plays to allow New England to erase its 25-point second-half deficit, a pair of play calls in the fourth quarter will replay in Shanahan’s mind all offseason long — and beyond.


The first: Following two Coleman runs to open a drive (the second of which sent him to the bench with an ankle injury), Atlanta faced a third-and-1 from its own 36-yard line with 8:31 left. At this point, the Falcons owned a 99.6 percent win probability.

In other words: The Patriots didn’t even have a full percentage-point chance of winning, based on models indexing every play from every game in the recent history of the NFL. But instead of playing it safe and just sending Freeman up the gut on a dive or pitching it outside to him to make a first down in space, Shanahan dialed up a pass*… and Atlanta’s perfect turnover record went up in smoke.

The Patriots recovered at the Falcons’ 25-yard line. Five plays and a two-point conversion later, they cut the lead to eight. Yet Atlanta’s win probability was 92.1 at this point. Some of the unthinkable had happened, but not close to all of it.

Now for the second play call that Shanahan will never forget: On the next Atlanta drive, two big plays — a 39-yard gain on a quick dump-off to Freeman and a superhuman catch by Jones — set the Falcons up at New England’s 22-yard line with 4:40 remaining, pushing their win percentage to 98.1. Why? All they had to do here was run into the backs of their linemen two more times, run the clock (or force New England to use its timeouts), then ask Pro Bowler Matt Bryant to kick a field goal to push the lead back to 11.

Instead, Shanahan called up another pass and kept his foot on the pedal. And Ryan did exactly what he couldn’t afford to do in that situation: He took a sack. It pushed Atlanta out of field goal range and set up a third-and-23. A holding call on the next play negated a 9-yard completion to Mohamed Sanu, and the pass on third-and-33 fell incomplete.

Despite finding themselves with a first-and-10 from the Patriots’ 22-yard line, the Falcons came up empty-handed and, worse still, used up very little clock. Less then 1 minute.

Aided by a miraculous Julian Edelman catch, New England pounced on Atlanta’s terrible handling of the end of that drive, scored on the ensuing possession, and got another two-point conversion to tie the game and push the win probability in their favor for the first time since the game was scoreless.

Kyle "Bonehead" Shanahan lost the game.

[CFD]

I've read it over and over, all the theories and criticisms but the fact of the matter is there are many things that could have influenced the outcome of the game. Just because it didn't happen yet this year doesn't mean it wouldn't. The Falcons never had a team come back from such a huge deficit this year, until this one. You never know.

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by CFD

I've read it over and over, all the theories and criticisms but the fact of the matter is there are many things that could have influenced the outcome of the game. Just because it didn't happen yet this year doesn't mean it wouldn't. The Falcons never had a team come back from such a huge deficit this year, until this one. You never know.

The entire point I'm trying to make is not to demean the PATS 4th quarter performance.

It was magnificent.

The point is, Shanahan GAVE them the opportunity to do it, when he DIDN'T have to.

Against a lesser team, you might get away with this.

Against a 4 time super bowl (now 5) champion, you don't take unnecessary risks.

You play smart. You don't give them ANY opportunity by making high risk calls.

[CFD]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

The entire point I'm trying to make is not to demean the PATS 4th quarter performance.

It was magnificent.

The point is, Shanahan GAVE them the opportunity to do it, when he DIDN'T have to.

Against a lesser team, you might get away with this.

Against a 4 time super bowl (now 5) champion, you don't take unnecessary risks.

You play smart. You don't give them ANY opportunity by making dumb calls.

I understand what you're saying and agree with the scenario you suggested. What I'm saying there are many more scenarios that could have unfolded. Injuries, penalties, fumbles it goes on and on. That's why true champions fight to the end.

[PoorMansCamaro]

What's amazing is the fact the people don't understand the game of football. You play the odds. Sure, Atlanta could have done nothing but run in the 2nd half and still lost, but the odds of them losing is reduced dramatically. That's why the play calling was awful. No one has a crystal ball, but it's football. You do what gives you the best chance to win. ATL didn't do that at the end of the game.

[Kenny Camaro]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, all just speculation. Every guess of a different called play being better than the one actually called can be refuted by a different speculation. You should expect the number one offense in the league to muster more than three touchdowns in a 60 minute game. Oh yeah, and have a center that can block the man directly in front of him on 3rd and one with four minutes to play and the Super Bowl on the line. Execution, or lack there of, cost Atlanta the game. Better luck next year, as an obvious Falcons fan, I'm sure you are familiar with the saying, since they have been hearing that 100% of the time after every year of their exsistance.

[PoorMansCamaro]

Players do need to execute, but coaches can also put their players in a better position to win. If you can't see that, you need to watch more football, or just watch a different sport entirely...like tennis.

[PoorMansCamaro]

A guy on ESPN said it best, "Incompetent situational football".

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by Kenny Camaro

Woulda, coulda, shoulda, all just speculation. Every guess of a different called play being better than the one actually called can be refuted by a different speculation. You should expect the number one offense in the league to muster more than three touchdowns in a 60 minute game. Oh yeah, and have a center that can block the man directly in front of him on 3rd and one with four minutes to play and the Super Bowl on the line. Execution, or lack there of, cost Atlanta the game. Better luck next year, as an obvious Falcons fan, I'm sure you are familiar with the saying, since they have been hearing that 100% of the time after every year of their exsistance.

When you have the ball on the 22 yard line, with the opportunity to put the game away, and have the best kicker in the NFL on your team, YOU DON"T THROW THE BALL!

You take advantage of the opportunity you have to put the game away.

Your kicker cannot "execute" if you don't give him the opportunity by calling a high risk ridiculous play that puts you out of his range!

IDIOTIC PLAY CALLING

[Dmpsix]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/greg-co...195345367.html

Again I posted the link for you all to examine. No need in arguing over when play by play footage and break downs discuss everything in detail.

[PoorMansCamaro]

Originally Posted by Joe M 2012 2SS

When you have the ball on the 22 yard line, with the opportunity to put the game away, and have the best kicker in the NFL on your team, YOU DON"T THROW THE BALL!

You take advantage of the opportunity you have to put the game away.

Your kicker cannot "execute" if you don't give him they opportunity by calling a high risk ridiculous play that puts you out of his range!

IDIOTIC PLAY CALLING

When Atlanta was 1st and 10 on the 22, I heard they could have kneeled every play after that for the rest of the game, that they would have won the game.

[Joe M 2012 2SS]

Originally Posted by PoorMansCamaro

When Atlanta was 1st and 10 on the 22, I heard they could have kneeled every play after that for the rest of the game, that they would have won the game.

Absolutely false. The PATS still have two timeouts, ATL could only run 40 seconds off the clock if they used them both. Pats actually get the ball back with more time on the clock then they actually had, with better field position in that scenario.

When your playing a team with that has the caliber of the Patriots, and your in a position to score the winning points, you don't squander it like Shanahan did.

But this isn't something he hasn't done before.

ATL lost to KC in the regular season, because Shanahan did the same thing.

He did the same thing when he was with the Redskins.

He will do the same thing with the 49ers.

The definition of insanity is repeating the same thing over and over, and expecting different results.

While he does have the ability to make perfectly timed calls, he has no idea of how to play the percentages.

He actually said the reason he threw the ball is he didn't want Matt Bryant to have to make a 50 yard FG.

The ball was on the 23 yard line on 2nd down, this is a 40 yard FG, not 50.

[Kenny Camaro]

Originally Posted by PoorMansCamaro

When Atlanta was 1st and 10 on the 22, I heard they could have kneeled every play after that for the rest of the game, that they would have won the game.

They probibly couldn't have executed that proficiently either! Lol

[Kenny Camaro]

Originally Posted by PoorMansCamaro

Players do need to execute, but coaches can also put their players in a better position to win. If you can't see that, you need to watch more football, or just watch a different sport entirely...like tennis.

Oh, I see that. Just like I saw poor execution on the 22 yard line by the number one offense in the NFL. Rather than seeking comfort in an alternate outcome by hypethitcal theories, asses the actual play that happened and embrace the fact that poor execution caused failure. Any other play that had that level of execution would have failed also, possibly worse, hypethitically.