Electric Vehicles

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by shaffe

I still don't understand why the big three were trying to push EV trucks as the halo vehicles for their EV line ups. Almost every review of the EV trucks(mostly F150 lightning) when they came out was commuting they are fine but once they do truck stuff the range just goes to useless.

Guy I play softball with bought a Hummer EV over the summer. Absolutely loves the thing. Said he took it to his summer house towing their boat. Trip usually takes about 3 1/2 hours, this time with the hummer took him almost 9 hours because they had to stop and charge, and disconnect the trailer every time to get it to fit in charging bays. Said that he will never take it on a long trip like that again, but for commuting around town it's incredible.

So again why was the push for EV trucks that struggle to do truck stuff? Why not SUVs and CUV sized vehicles to push the technology(I know there are a few now, but still)

For the record, this is my "informed opinion" as an automotive analyst and consultant (now retired ). I've expressed this opinion in private consultation with clients as well as at numerous conferences and industry events that I've had the honor to speak before...

When Tesla launched the Model S and a bit later the Model X, they targeted those vehicles directly at luxury sedans and luxury utilities. The market leaders in those segments chose to ignore them or view them as a niche vehicle that might take a little bit of market share here or there.

The Model S ate S-Class and 7-Series lunch. The Model X significantly impacted sales of BMW and Mercedes-Benz utilities. Set that aside for a minute.

Tesla comes forward with an announcement of an all electric truck aimed primarily at the "lifestyle truck" portion of the full-sized truck market. This is arguably the most profitable portion of the light duty pickup market.

In 2019, Tesla's claims for the then upcoming truck was that it would have a 500 mile range, 15,000 lbs towing, practically zero maintenance requirements and prices starting at $40k for a RWD variant. Based on the experience with luxury sedans and utilities it would have been foolish for the leaders in the pickup truck market to NOT pay attention and to NOT be prepared to respond.

Three things happened...

1. The Cyber truck achieved NONE of its originally stated targets.
2. The Cybertruck was more than two years late to market.
3. Ford and GM not only reacted, they over-reacted.

Based on what I've learned about how the new generation of Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) are designed to operate, EREV is the most logical technology application for electrified trucks. This is the direction Ford has just announced for the F150 Lightning replacement and the direction that Ram is following whenever they actually launch their Ram 1500 REV. It's not clear at this time whether GM will join the EREV parade or if they will plan to go with a more traditional Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) approach. I think if they were ever on the fence with this, the Ford announcement will nudge them to the EREV side.

[shaffe]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

For the record, this is my "informed opinion" as an automotive analyst and consultant (now retired ). I've expressed this opinion in private consultation with clients as well as at numerous conferences and industry events that I've had the honor to speak before...

When Tesla launched the Model S and a bit later the Model X, they targeted those vehicles directly at luxury sedans and luxury utilities. The market leaders in those segments chose to ignore them or view them as a niche vehicle that might take a little bit of market share here or there.

The Model S ate S-Class and 7-Series lunch. The Model X significantly impacted sales of BMW and Mercedes-Benz utilities. Set that aside for a minute.

Tesla comes forward with an announcement of an all electric truck aimed primarily at the "lifestyle truck" portion of the full-sized truck market. This is arguably the most profitable portion of the light duty pickup market.

In 2019, Tesla's claims for the then upcoming truck was that it would have a 500 mile range, 15,000 lbs towing, practically zero maintenance requirements and prices starting at $40k for a RWD variant. Based on the experience with luxury sedans and utilities it would have been foolish for the leaders in the pickup truck market to NOT pay attention and to NOT be prepared to respond.

Three things happened...

1. The Cyber truck achieved NONE of its originally stated targets.
2. The Cybertruck was more than two years late to market.
3. Ford and GM not only reacted, they over-reacted.

Based on what I've learned about how the new generation of Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) are designed to operate, EREV is the most logical technology application for electrified trucks. This is the direction Ford has just announced for the F150 Lightning replacement and the direction that Ram is following whenever they actually launch their Ram 1500 REV. It's not clear at this time whether GM will join the EREV parade or if they will plan to go with a more traditional Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) approach. I think if they were ever on the fence with this, the Ford announcement will nudge them to the EREV side.

Well that makes a lot more sense then. Thanks for the insight as always

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It's not clear at this time whether GM will join the EREV parade or if they will plan to go with a more traditional Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) approach. I think if they were ever on the fence with this, the Ford announcement will nudge them to the EREV side.

I wonder if they are too far into the dev cycle for a major change (like EREV, assuming it's not in the plans).

And speaking of GM full size trucks:
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a6...patent-images/

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by snizzle

I wonder if they are too far into the dev cycle for a major change (like EREV, assuming it's not in the plans).

And speaking of GM full size trucks:
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a6...patent-images/

Reflecting back on my last job, we had PHEV trucks and utilities in the forecast for GM. It's easier to pivot from a PHEV to an EREV than the reverse. If you're in development for the PHEV, you've carved out space for the engine, fuel tank and fuel lines, transmission, and a full exhaust system. If you decide to pivot to an EREV you can give back the real estate set aside for the transmission and some of the real estate set aside for the exhaust.

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Reflecting back on my last job, we had PHEV trucks and utilities in the forecast for GM. It's easier to pivot from a PHEV to an EREV than the reverse. If you're in development for the PHEV, you've carved out space for the engine, fuel tank and fuel lines, transmission, and a full exhaust system. If you decide to pivot to an EREV you can give back the real estate set aside for the transmission and some of the real estate set aside for the exhaust.

They've promised fuel economy improvements. I'd be shocked if they accomplished that without electrification of some form/fashion on these next gen trucks/V8s.