Electric Vehicles

[KMPrenger]

Originally Posted by docwra

I hate to be that guy but currently 78% of new car sales happen outside of the USA.
If theres not some amount of investment US involvement in auto production is going to be limited to Tesla and pickup trucks.

Its interesting that other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety than the US is, at least for the moment.

Yet Ford and other automakers world wide are pulling back the reins on their big EV plans. What do you mean by "other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety"? Safety?

...and I'm just gonna revert back to my broken record saying now....but...

Hybrids just make sense. I'm not saying EVs don't make sense at all, but the FASTEST WAY to reduce tailpipe emissions through buyer acceptability of battery operated vehicles is through hybrids.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

Yet Ford and other automakers world wide are pulling back the reins on their big EV plans. What do you mean by "other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety"? Safety?

...and I'm just gonna revert back to my broken record saying now....but...

Hybrids just make sense. I'm not saying EVs don't make sense at all, but the FASTEST WAY to reduce tailpipe emissions through buyer acceptability of battery operated vehicles is through hybrids.

Automakers are definitely rescoping their approaches to EVs. They are not ripping up the playbook, but they are tearing out a page or two and rewriting some pages. Ford and GM both went balls out developing and bringing to market EV pickups. In both cases it was in direct response to Tesla’s initial reveal of the CyberTruck. Remember, the whole industry ignored Tesla when Tesla unveiled Model S. Then Model S ate M-B S Class and BMW 7 Series lunch. The industry laughed at the goofy doors when Tesla introduced the Model X. Then it ate M-B GL Class and BMW X6 lunch. So when Tesla came at pickup trucks, Ford and GM cash cows, they paid attention and reacted quickly. Now they are seeing that they probably overreacted. So now they are dialing that back. Both companies beat Tesla to market with arguably better trucks than the CyberTruck and the CyberTruck has fallen short of expectation on almost every measure when compared to Elon’s original targets.

Ford is also seeing that even though the 3-row large SUV Kia EV9 is technically acclaimed and lauded in the auto press, it’s not exactly flying off the lots. So they are understandably slowing their roll on chasing that one. Rivian R1S is doing ok in terms of sales, but pricing is going to limit that to some extent. So no hurry for Ford to bring in the EV equivalent of an Expedition, especially when the Expedition brings in 5-digit profit margins. Same with GM cutting back target volumes for Silverado EV and Sierra EV. Cadillac is still launching 3-row EVs this year and next, including an EV Escalade. Both GM and Ford are still moving forward with multiple EV products in other product segments. But they are also increasing the number of hybrids in their portfolios. The hybrids are likely to replace some of the planned EV product and ALL of the remaining ICE product.

I’ll continue to stand by my position that for my lifetime at least, we should expect to see a mix of hybrid, PHEV, and EV where most buyers will be able to find a vehicle that best suits their needs. ICE only vehicles will likely die out 2030-ish if for no other reason than adding hybrid systems to existing vehicles. The issue will continue to be at what point will EVs have larger market share than non-EVs. Last year my company was forecasting that to occur in 2028 globally, 2030 in the US. Now we’ve backed that off to about 2032-3 in the US. China (world’s largest market) just crested the 50% EV mark in the last quarter. Europe is probably still on target for 2028-ish.


Shameless promo… As I type this I’m drafting my presentation for an upcoming client conference. Title is “Detours on the Yellow Brick Road: Charting the multiple paths to vehicle electrification”

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by docwra

I hate to be that guy but currently 78% of new car sales happen outside of the USA.
If theres not some amount of investment US involvement in auto production is going to be limited to Tesla and pickup trucks.

Its interesting that other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety than the US is, at least for the moment.

Dude this is America. We invented the big car with a V8 engine.

The American market is NOT like the rest of the world. Anyone who forces this stuff on us is only gonna piss us off.

Our driveways are bigger than some of your main streets. The American market is for big, powerful, SUVs and large trucks with big V6 and V8 engines. That is the American market. It is what it is. Gas ain’t a bazillion dollars a gallon here.

[Martinjlm]

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ure-road-trips

I think it's common knowledge that long-distance trips are the second-most challenging use case for EVs (towing long distances being most challenging). Tesla has gone a long way towards eliminating the long distance travel issue for Tesla owners. Opening up Supercharger network to non-Tesla brands is starting to ease that concern for those other brands. Now we're starting to see other efforts coming into play that will further reduce the difficulty and stress of travelling long distances with EVs.

Love's is increasing their installation of DC fast charging stations at all of their highway corridor Love's Travel Stops. Pilot / Flying J has already started doing the same thing, in conjunction with GM. But while Pilot / Flying J is more over-the-road trucker focused, Love's has more of a family friendly vibe and will likely draw more casual travelers. The cool thing about the Pilot / Flying J setup is that it is designed for EVs that are towing. The chargers are positioned so that vehicles towing do not have to uncouple to fit into the charging bay.

[Martinjlm]

By the way… Ford walking away from 3-row EV SUVs was only half the story. Here’s the other half… https://www.greencarreports.com/news...w-electric-suv

[bigd1276]

Perspective.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by olrocker

Dude this is America. We invented the big car with a V8 engine.

The American market is NOT like the rest of the world. Anyone who forces this stuff on us is only gonna piss us off.

I dont deny that, although TBF Toyota and Honda have historically done pretty well in the USA. However, at some point emissions are going to start being a problem though, and as things stand you guys are a long way behind EU/Far East when that happens.

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

What do you mean by "other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety"? Safety?

If Im wrong I apologise but I believe that USA vehicles dont need to undergo crash testing before being sold, theres no legislation in respect of safety in collision with pedestrians, no requirement for automated braking, reversing assistance, drowsiness warnings, data recorders, speed limiters etc

Weve had all of this for years while you guys still dont test bumpers for safety, definitely something a European mind struggles to comprehend.

Originally Posted by bigd1276

Perspective

Yes mate. Heres another "perspective" for you though. Ignore the mm/dd thing, it gets the point across though.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by docwra

…



If Im wrong I apologise but I believe that USA vehicles dont need to undergo crash testing before being sold, theres no legislation in respect of safety in collision with pedestrians, no requirement for automated braking, reversing assistance, drowsiness warnings, data recorders, speed limiters etc

…

Crash Test: Yes
Ped Pro: Not a law, but required for other markets so everybody plans for it. Side note…One of the reasons large trucks have the tall flat front ends. Counter-intuitive, but true.
Auto Braking: Emergency Brake Assist is required content
Reversing assistance: Rear cameras are required, though I’m not certain about ultra-sonic sensors, though most cars have them.
Drowsiness warnings: No, but cars with Level 2 or higher ADAS have occupant monitoring cabin cameras. Low percentage though.
Speed limiters: Thank God no. Had that in the ‘70s and ‘80s and it was a miserable existence. Some cars have them but to be honest it’s typically to protect the drivetrain or acknowledgement that the OEM tires are speed limited.

Should also note that since I’ve worked in companies with global presence, I’ve been writing dates DD/MM/YYYY for decades. I’m still in the minority but it does seem to be growing.

[FarmerFran]

Ford just put another EV on hold due to sales

[bigd1276]

Originally Posted by olrocker

Dude this is America. We invented the big car with a V8 engine.

The American market is NOT like the rest of the world. Anyone who forces this stuff on us is only gonna piss us off.

Our driveways are bigger than some of your main streets. The American market is for big, powerful, SUVs and large trucks with big V6 and V8 engines. That is the American market. It is what it is. Gas ain’t a bazillion dollars a gallon here.

This is the "perspective" that I was pointing out. Big difference between what works in the UK vs. US
In this case, size matters.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by docwra

I dont deny that, although TBF Toyota and Honda have historically done pretty well in the USA. However, at some point emissions are going to start being a problem though, and as things stand you guys are a long way behind EU/Far East when that happens.



If Im wrong I apologise but I believe that USA vehicles dont need to undergo crash testing before being sold, theres no legislation in respect of safety in collision with pedestrians, no requirement for automated braking, reversing assistance, drowsiness warnings, data recorders, speed limiters etc

Weve had all of this for years while you guys still dont test bumpers for safety, definitely something a European mind struggles to comprehend.



Yes mate. Heres another "perspective" for you though. Ignore the mm/dd thing, it gets the point across though.

Unlike the rest of the world personal freedom and free thinking is still (struggling at times depending on the State) valued and encouraged here.

America has always been fiercely and proudly independent….. I mean, hey, our guys kicked out your King in 1776 because we didn’t like him telling us what to do after all. If the people don’t want it, or if enough people don’t want it, the government doesn’t force it.

And our cars DO have rigorous testing - the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) crash tests every car sold in America today and rates it according to number of stars out of 5. That ranking is printed on the window sticker and in the automotive review if every new vehicle.

In fact, it may surprise you to know, the NHTSA was founded in 1958 and has been advocating for the advancement of the safety of production cars for almost 70 years now.

[genxer]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

This is gonna be a big deal, at least in South Korea where the incident occurred. Ironically, South Korea is right up there with China in terms of battery manufacturing, but the batteries in question come from a smaller Chinese battery manufacturer. In any event, this serves as proof that a lot more work needs to be done in the area of fire containment and extinguishing.

https://insideevs.com/news/730531/hy...ia-fire-korea/

https://www.carscoops.com/2024/08/ko...rking-garages/
https://insideevs.com/news/730672/so...ev-fire-panic/
https://v.daum.net/v/20240811150646465
https://m.khan.co.kr/national/incide...02408051716507

I hope you'll step back to this story. Has fire department data been aggregated for battery type, time to extinguish, reach of colateral damage?

"South Korean officials met last week to discuss an emergency response to the recent EV fires and quell ongoing public concerns. As a result, it urged automakers to reveal the suppliers of its battery cells to help instill confidence in the public." I'm discounting blaming fires on Chinese manufacturing. No scaled up vehicle producer can eliminate recalls.

If the general public EV buyer was also made aware of battery chemistry in use, would they be making the same choices as tech enthusiast early adopters? I'm guessing that plays into Tesla now offering LFP choices. The EQE from the fire was reported as Li Nickel Cobalt Manganese.

"In addition to restricting access to underground garages to EVs that have been charged to less than 90%, the new rules will enforce a charging limit of 80% on rapid charges through South Korea’s capital city."

Are 80-90% charges going to be the new 100%? You've characterized Li-ion to LFP as similar to V8 versus V6. If lower performing cells are the easy safety choice, then even more so as KMPrenger says "hybrids just make sense" (including plug-in and erev).

I'm also hoping you comment more about this week's Ford EV news. The skunkworks vehicle reported to be mid-size trucks seems odd.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ure-road-trips

I think it's common knowledge that long-distance trips are the second-most challenging use case for EVs (towing long distances being most challenging). Tesla has gone a long way towards eliminating the long distance travel issue for Tesla owners. Opening up Supercharger network to non-Tesla brands is starting to ease that concern for those other brands. Now we're starting to see other efforts coming into play that will further reduce the difficulty and stress of travelling long distances with EVs.

Love's is increasing their installation of DC fast charging stations at all of their highway corridor Love's Travel Stops. Pilot / Flying J has already started doing the same thing, in conjunction with GM. But while Pilot / Flying J is more over-the-road trucker focused, Love's has more of a family friendly vibe and will likely draw more casual travelers. The cool thing about the Pilot / Flying J setup is that it is designed for EVs that are towing. The chargers are positioned so that vehicles towing do not have to uncouple to fit into the charging bay.

Now they can have super expensive electricity to go along with their super expensive gasoline.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by olrocker

And our cars DO have rigorous testing - the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) crash tests every car sold in America today and rates it according to number of stars out of 5. That ranking is printed on the window sticker and in the automotive review if every new vehicle.

I only heard about this about the Cybertruck, it cant be sold in Europe as it apparently hasnt been independently tested, even if it had it would fail hard on pedestrian safety.

Quick google seems its not alone, from here: https://tinyurl.com/2smndvmk:

"Among vehicles without ratings, a few—such as the BMW 7 Series and Lucid Air luxury sedans—have sales numbers well below 10,000 cars a year"

Interestingly the Lucid Air does have a 5* Euro NCAP safety rating despite only being sold in 4 European countries, they only shifted 156 last year ......... so 10,000 is still quite a lot, right?