Electric Vehicles

[Mr_Draco]

Originally Posted by genxer

It's really not to late for the EV masterminds to change tack and plan for battery swap stations, for the wealthier half of EV'ers.

Many months ago I seen where a company was trying to design a way to pump out the discharged electrolyte out of a battery pack and pump fresh, fully charged electrolyte in. The battery prototype that was capable of this was able to complete the process in roughly the same amount of time it takes to fill your car up with gas. I don't know how feasible this actually is but if it does come to fruition, this method is probably the closest we'll see to "battery swapping" anytime soon.

[silversleeper]

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ford+ceo


he has interesting things to say it all makes sense and his forecasts for ICE vs Hybrid vs EV for the future and how Ford needs to move. I like how he is focused on a realistic $30EV with typical features in the near future. Not putting all his eggs in one basket or being unrealistic or emotional or political.
The Collapse video was too much clickbait out of context for me through it but the yahoo interview was more balanced. I considered investing in Ford after learning his vision for the company but their 5 year history of stock prices leaves me looking towards something I have more confidence in, which isn't car companies for now.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by 90503

Apparently CT4 and CT5 Cadillacs have such pathetic sales numbers that they won't get it in the way.

The Camaro, though, just had to go.

I can see Camaro coming back as a 7th Gen LGR EV car with this news.

They just need to figure out how to make it happen but that will depend on Caddy EV sales. Could be a loooong time

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Apparently CT4 and CT5 Cadillacs have such pathetic sales numbers that they won't get it in the way.

The Camaro, though, just had to go.

Originally Posted by mlee

I can see Camaro coming back as a 7th Gen LGR EV car with this news.

They just need to figure out how to make it happen but that will depend on Caddy EV sales. Could be a loooong time

You guys just reminded me…

I had posted this in another thread but it’s relevant here. I spoke to someone who is in a really good position to see and know things. They told me they saw two Camaro clay models. One had tailpipes. That is all I can say without getting people in trouble.

FWIW - a lot of clay models never see the light of day. On the other hand, every GM vehicle on the road today was a clay model at some point.

[genxer]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Whether or not it is too late depends on the vehicle manufacturer and their manufacturing strategies. For most of the manufacturers that I am aware of it is too late. Most EV manufacturers, both start-up and legacy OEMs, integrate the battery box as part of the platform structure. Some even use the battery box cover as the floor of the vehicle in order to reduce mass and add to structural rigidity. The picture below shows the difference in body structure when designing to use the battery box structure as the floor of the vehicle. The figure on the right is the direction that the industry is heading.

“Swapping” the battery then becomes the equivalent of a frame adjustment. Not something I’d want to do every week or two. The one glaring exception is Nio. But they designed the car AND the battery swap process together.
Nobody else is doing that.

Just some thoughts. Nio, or something likewise, is multiple times faster than charging and at parity with a gas refuel. When it's looked at from charge cable vulnerability, it's better for higher performance charging to be less accessible to the public, and slower top-offs to be more disposable/replaceable. Swap stations would cost more but can take up less real estate with quick times.

How much of an albatross is perceived battery degradation on re-sale value? Swap subscriptions or packages might help there. Ultium modules' future-proofing attribute play well with a swap concept.

Form factors for 2 and 3 row crossovers would cover the majority of vehicles companies want to sell. The majority of people don't really care about weight gain from needing a floor pan, Tesla enthusiasts might ...high class fleas jumping to Jay Leno's chest hair aren't going to be bothered by crabs hanging off Elon's sack, and vice-versa.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by olrocker

There is absolutely no way - NO WAY - on God’s green earth that anyone can honestly tell people the push for EV’s is NOT a purely, exclusively and directly politically motivated manipulation of the American automobile industry.

You know we buy cars outside of the USA, right?
You know EVs in parts of Europe are now >50% of new registrations?
You know there are countries here that produce as near as dammit 100% clean power?

You couldnt be more wrong IMO.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by docwra

You know we buy cars outside of the USA, right?
You know EVs in parts of Europe are now >50% of new registrations?
You know there are countries here that produce as near as dammit 100% clean power?

You couldnt be more wrong IMO.

This isn’t about what Europe does.

This is about the over-regulation and agenda pushing of the American government. Regulations and financial subsidies might be the way if life in the UK but the United States was built on capitalism and free enterprise.

Two completely different ideals and principles.

I have to watch how far I go here because moderators are watching and they don’t want politics, but how can the political agenda be ignored now when the administration just literally wrote GM a check to specifically convert an assembly plant - the plant MY Camaro - OUR Camaros — were built at to build electric vehicles without the American market deciding? They used MY federal income tax money to directly support a policy I - and over half of America - are fervently against.

The bottom line is that the American automobile market never was and never will be similar to the European market. We prefer our cars and SUVs to be large, comfortable, powerful V6 and V8 gasoline operated and we’ve always preferred that.

The modern American market SUV and full-size pickup is today’s version of the beautiful, comfortable, spacious land yachts from the 1950s-70s.

I would have no problem if the American market openly and naturally demanded EV. I’d be in the minority here. The market would demand it, and GM and other companies selling cars in America would naturally direct resources and allocate funds to supply market demand.

That’s the basic, simple definition of free market capitalism.

The problem we have in America today is regulation and policies being implemented and financed by the government supporting private corporations for which we own stock in that are against our principles, using public tax money to fund those policies.

The American car market is just like most everything else our country compares to in the world: we’re different, we’re individual, and we’re determined to stay that way.

Instead of Ford Galaxie 500s it’s the F-150 quad-cab. In place of the Grand Torino it’s the Explorer.

Instead of the Chevy Caprice it’s the Tahoe.

Heck the Suburban has been in continuous, non-stop production since like 1936. It don’t get much bigger than that.

That’s an awesome SUV that says everything great about American automobiles. If you need the space and towing capacity there’s nothing better in the world.

Dang thing won’t even fit down half of Europe’s streets

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

You guys just reminded me…

I had posted this in another thread but it’s relevant here. I spoke to someone who is in a really good position to see and know things. They told me they saw two Camaro clay models. One had tailpipes. That is all I can say without getting people in trouble.

FWIW - a lot of clay models never see the light of day. On the other hand, every GM vehicle on the road today was a clay model at some point.

What if the 7th gen Camaro is a flexible architecture platform and we get a hybrid V8 and a full EV. Choose your own adventure. GM wouldn't throw us a bone, would they? If only the Camaro team had the Corvette budget.....

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by snizzle

What if the 7th gen Camaro is a flexible architecture platform and we get a hybrid V8 and a full EV. Choose your own adventure. GM wouldn't throw us a bone, would they? If only the Camaro team had the Corvette budget.....

I’d say it would be more likely that if CT4/5 were to continue, 7th Gen would still be off Alpha, with a plug-in hybrid system. The EV would be off the Ultium platform. Same as Blazer / Blazer EV where Blazer is off Chi platform and Blazer EV is off Ultium platform. I know I’ve been gone from the company for a while but I doubt that GM’s position of avoiding compromising EV platforms by protecting for an ICE has changed. The difficulty is finding somewhere to put a 15 - 20 kWh battery in an Alpha.

[snizzle]

Or maybe we get VSS-R afterall......

I still wonder though if they'll be able to justify the business case given what we know about GM recently, even if it's Alpha. They scrapped the 7th gen ICE once already reportedly. Appreciate you giving us a little hope but it's probably exclusively BEV.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by snizzle

Or maybe we get VSS-R afterall......

I still wonder though if they'll be able to justify the business case given what we know about GM recently, even if it's Alpha. They scrapped the 7th gen ICE once already reportedly. Appreciate you giving us a little hope but it's probably exclusively BEV.

It would not be if Scott Settlemeire and Ed Welburn still worked at GM.

Two great men, extremely talented and passionate in their respective positions.

Sadly they’re the last vestiges of what made General Motors a great car company, and they’ve both been retired for about 6-8 years.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

Just some thoughts. Nio, or something likewise, is multiple times faster than charging and at parity with a gas refuel. When it's looked at from charge cable vulnerability, it's better for higher performance charging to be less accessible to the public, and slower top-offs to be more disposable/replaceable. Swap stations would cost more but can take up less real estate with quick times.

How much of an albatross is perceived battery degradation on re-sale value? Swap subscriptions or packages might help there. Ultium modules' future-proofing attribute play well with a swap concept.

Form factors for 2 and 3 row crossovers would cover the majority of vehicles companies want to sell. The majority of people don't really care about weight gain from needing a floor pan, Tesla enthusiasts might ...high class fleas jumping to Jay Leno's chest hair aren't going to be bothered by crabs hanging off Elon's sack, and vice-versa.

On the surface battery swapping sounds like a good idea. But let’s think about it this way…there is only one company that is spending any brainpower on it. Why is that? Others have looked at it and walked away from it. Renault looked at it in conjunction with Better Place. Better place has been out of business for years and Renault has completely walked away from it. Why?

Technical Issues:
The idea of a 5 minute swap tends to fade when considering the need to consider the integration of battery cooling systems into broader vehicle cooling systems.

Similarly, and probably more impactful, the battery pack is now integral to the platform structure (chassis) of most EVs. That was not necessarily the case when Beter Place was pushing the idea of a battery swap concept.

Commercial issues
Who owns the battery? Let’s assume that the vehicle owner owns the battery. You have a brand new car with a brand new battery, 300 mile range, and you go to get it swapped. They swap in a battery of unknown age, unknown number of previous swaps. You drive away with 290 miles of range. Are you happy?

Let’s assume the car company owns the battery. Suspend for a moment the fact that there is zero motivation for a car company to own hundreds of thousands of batteries across every country where they do business and some where they don’t. But, we’ll assume the car company owns the battery. You get into an accident and the car is totaled. It’s not your battery. Who compensates the car company for the loss of the battery? And what is the value of the battery in the first place? Is it the original battery? If not, how many miles are on this battery and does the mileage depreciate the value of the battery?

Those are just the easy issues around battery swapping. Don’t expect to see it expand beyond Nio and maybe some smaller regional Chinese brands that can coexist in the Nio ecosystem.

[ghawk4]

Being in the Automotive business for almost 40 years, I can tell you electrics are coming, albeit slower than regulators would want. Hopefully they will realize eventually that there will come other technologies that can realize zero emissions and endorse a broader range of options. I can also say with certainty that I will never own one but my kids probably will. Of course I am the type that has never had a Facespace account and social media beyond youtube is out of my grasp. Old guys like me will eventually die off and the flexibility to adopt different technologies are the hallmark of next generations. That is the beauty of evolution - whether we agree or not doesnt really matter in the long run - its going to happen. Good discussion of the details in this thread - all of the details matter to someone, but not everyone, even though they will all have to be addressed at some point.

What we are seeing now is a delay in EV programs from all manufacturers, US and European. Couple this with lower volume expectations and all of the components for EV's are more expensive to produce. Programs that were supposed to start in 2025 are now being scheduled for 2028 at 40-50% of the original volumes. Take rates for EV components that are in current production are down significantly from forecasted volumes (except for Tesla that is maintaining but down from peak). All of this together makes for a tough marketplace for suppliers and puts the OEM's in dangerous BOM territory to ever turn a profit. Its a vicious cycle, without the volumes, the price cant go down and without competitive pricing, the volumes cant materialize.

More than my $.02, but thanks for the discussions.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by ghawk4

Being in the Automotive business for almost 40 years, I can tell you electrics are coming, albeit slower than regulators would want. Hopefully they will realize eventually that there will come other technologies that can realize zero emissions and endorse a broader range of options. I can also say with certainty that I will never own one but my kids probably will. Of course I am the type that has never had a Facespace account and social media beyond youtube is out of my grasp. Old guys like me will eventually die off and the flexibility to adopt different technologies are the hallmark of next generations. That is the beauty of evolution - whether we agree or not doesnt really matter in the long run - its going to happen. Good discussion of the details in this thread - all of the details matter to someone, but not everyone, even though they will all have to be addressed at some point.

What we are seeing now is a delay in EV programs from all manufacturers, US and European. Couple this with lower volume expectations and all of the components for EV's are more expensive to produce. Programs that were supposed to start in 2025 are now being scheduled for 2028 at 40-50% of the original volumes. Take rates for EV components that are in current production are down significantly from forecasted volumes (except for Tesla that is maintaining but down from peak). All of this together makes for a tough marketplace for suppliers and puts the OEM's in dangerous BOM territory to ever turn a profit. Its a vicious cycle, without the volumes, the price cant go down and without competitive pricing, the volumes cant materialize.

More than my $.02, but thanks for the discussions.

And there’s absolutely nothing wrong with any of that. Once us old curmudgeons can no longer yell at kids to get off our lawn they’ll have a free ride to build whatever the market demands.

But unless and until that happens (I’m 46 so I still have a few more years to yell at kids to stay off my lawn) regulating by forcing EVs down people throats and federally subsidizing private businesses to switch is why people are fed up with the administration.

Let the market dictate - not the deep state.