[Number 3]

Originally Posted by olrocker

So the fact that sales have fallen off a cliff after the early adapters got theirs and now every car dealer in America has written and petitioned the feds to back the fudge off the E.V. mandates because they - unlike the feds and apparently some people on this forum - know their customer base and thus see there’s going to be a max market saturation of these cars of maybe 20-30%.

I don’t need to breathe slowly, I’m good - I’m stating facts that many on here flat out ignore. Or refuse to admit to, because, they’re right and I’m wrong. Because, right-wing media and all you know?

You apparently missed MartinJim’s post #145. Think you need to go back and check that one thennnnnnn comment. Sorry but data wins over recycled opinions.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by Number 3

You apparently missed MartinJim’s post #145. Think you need to go back and check that one thennnnnnn comment. Sorry but data wins over recycled opinions.

You mean his nonsense ramblings? No thanks I’m good.

People who continue to ramble on and fill a page with each post lose their points very quickly. I read people who are clear and concise in their points with minimal rambling.

I know some of my posts can be a little longer than a couple paragraphs but I separate my paragraphs and try to make my points clear as I can without turning it into the book of Genesis.

You can make whatever you want out if what I say but at least you know exactly where I stand. With posts like that all I hear is Radio Ga-Ga.

[GXP08jrf]

I can't stay silent. The Horse & Buggy analogy is absolutely, 100%, no doubt the best analogy one can make in this situation. Read through the ZLI & mods forums of this website and you will find countless posts about individuals trying all means at any cost to increase their vehicle's "HORSEpower"

The ICE and EV and H&B are intrinsincly linked by this measure. No one can deny that the method by which we judge our Camaros had equine roots. It right there, specifically named in the unit of measure itself.

[The Chief (tm)]

"People who continue to ramble on and fill a page with each post lose their points very quickly."

In other words, "the posts are too long, so the facts cited within them cannot be true."

Just about says it all, if you haven't said it yourself already.

[olrocker]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

The writing is already on the wall. The people closest to the consumer are best situated to know what consumers want. Those people are the dealers, not the manufacturers. The dealers have spoken. EVs are piling up on their lots. The majority of consumers have been watching and have concluded that EVs are not ready for prime time.

Meanwhile the manufacturers are slowly realizing that their new age Pintos aren’t selling the way they had hoped and are scaling back production.

EVs will stick around as a niche product, but in the US they will never be the preferred choice over ICE vehicles no matter how much slanted info their propagandists spew.

Exactly. The market saturation for E.V.s could peak at a max of 30%, and that’s being very optimistic. Dealers cannot survive if 80-100% of the stock being delivered to them is only for 30% of the market. They’ll be the first to die.

Now, I’m sure the battery tech learned and achieved at this point from the investment into EVs from all manufacturers can be used in new hybrids, so it won’t all necessarily go to waste.

Hybrids will be further developed, their range and charge cycles increased, and you could very well see a day where your gasoline/electric hybrid goes 0-60 in under 4 seconds, has a top speed of 190, and gets 130 miles per gallon.

But there will always be an internal combustion engine involved in its propulsion and/or charging system.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by olrocker

So the fact that sales have fallen off a cliff after the early adapters got theirs and now every car dealer in America has written and petitioned the feds to back the fudge off the E.V. mandates because they - unlike the feds and apparently some people on this forum - know their customer base and thus see there’s going to be a max market saturation of these cars of maybe 20-30%.

I don’t need to breathe slowly, I’m good - I’m stating facts that many on here flat out ignore. Or refuse to admit to, because, they’re right and I’m wrong. Because, right-wing media and all you know?

Here are facts that even you cannot ignore. Posted in the Electric Vehicles thread but maybe you didn’t see it. This is what “facts” look like. Not sure how this looks like “sales have fallen off a cliff”. And are you sure ”every car dealer in America” has written and petitioned the feds? Last I looked it was about 20 - 30%. And those are the ones that are taking GM’s and Ford’s offers to walk if they don’t want to commit. Anywho…here’s some facts

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

The writing is already on the wall. The people closest to the consumer are best situated to know what consumers want. Those people are the dealers, not the manufacturers. The dealers have spoken. EVs are piling up on their lots. The majority of consumers have been watching and have concluded that EVs are not ready for prime time.

Meanwhile the manufacturers are slowly realizing that their new age Pintos aren’t selling the way they had hoped and are scaling back production.

EVs will stick around as a niche product, but in the US they will never be the preferred choice over ICE vehicles no matter how much slanted info their propagandists spew.

FACT: Surveys of car buyers say the LEAST FAVORITE part of the car buying experience is the dealer. Yup, the dealer is benefitting from being closest to the customer alright.

FACT: Tesla sells more than half the EVs sold in the US.

FACT: Tesla has no dealers. So where are these dealer lots where the EVs are piling up.

FACT: Every brand that sells Es has had an INCREASE in EV sales in 2023 over 2022.

FACT: A brand that didn’t exist 20 years ago that is making a “niche” product is the 8th best selling brand in the US.

FACT: An EV model (Tesla Model Y) is the 5th best selling vehicle of any kind in the US. Another one (Model 3) is the 12th. Makes me think a lot of people are preferring them to ICE alternatives. The Model Y is also the best selling vehicle of any type in the world. Helluva niche I’d say.

Hopefully that’s short and concise enough for ya.

[Capricio]

Cadillac EV growth 7400%!?!?! Imagine if they had started with zero instead of a hundred or so, it would be infinity! I guess we should be in awe of the "facts" with no context surrounding consumer demand reaching saturation. Now, imagine these numbers without the EPA and the subsidies driving them.


Anyone in IT may be familiar with the Gartner Hype-Cycle.





We are now just past the peak of "inflated expectations" and about to bottom out, only to level off into a plateau. I think the slope of enlightenment may consist of a wave of federal cash putting up charging stations and better battery chemistry, better resale values, people like me finally willing to take on a 4th car as a commuter/beater, etc.

[bigd1276]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

I'm not the one who complained about the length of comments. I may not be as educated as a lot of people here, but I'm perfectly capable of reading long posts.

Which EV manufacturers are expanding production in 2024? Which ones are having trouble supplying their customers with vehicles because demand is outstripping supply?

I'll wait.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

I'm not the one who complained about the length of comments. I may not be as educated as a lot of people here, but I'm perfectly capable of reading long posts.

Which EV manufacturers are expanding production in 2024? Which ones are having trouble supplying their customers with vehicles because demand is outstripping supply?

I'll wait.

I sincerely apologize for calling you out on the length of comments. I mistakenly confused you for the other guy.

Which manufacturers are expanding EV production in 2024? All but one of the brands listed on the chart of Top 25 Brands that I posted on this thread and the Electric Vehicles thread is coming to market with at least one new nameplate in the US in 2024. The exception being Mazda. And they might still surprise me.

The “trouble supplying their customers” question is much more difficult to answer so I’m not going to try. I will tell you why I say it’s difficult…

I would have to have more detail on where they are in their volume ramp curve and I would need to know if they are having any significant supply chain issues.

Example. Cadillac Lyriq was supposed to have started production in late 2022. My boss was one of the first to put in a reservation for one. She got her Lyriq about 3 weeks ago. Cadillac is nowhere near where they want to be in terms of getting completed vehicles out the door. Demand definitely exceeds supply, but will it still exceed supply when supply is at full rate? Don’t know. It will depend on what options buyers have at any given point in time. Every brand is going to have a different story in that respect.

Tesla and maybe some of the European brands have EV plants ramped up to full production. Tesla is adding capacity at Austin and will also add new plants in India and Mexico. Mexico is of importance here because those vehicles (a new vehicle smaller and lower price than Model 3) will be sold in the US. I guess we can say that Ford is probably to capacity on Lightning, since they’re cutting a shift at the Michigan plant and probably shifting planned production at the Blue Oval campus in Tennessee to another upcoming EV product instead of Lightning.

[speedyink1]

To be clear, I think both are fine and can co-exist.

However, I'm not sure we can look at Tesla and go "this applies to every brands EV"

Tesla is a very trendy brand for one, with very dedicated followers. They started with middle finger to the big man attitude that really resonated with people. The automotive industry was in a bad spot in the public eye around that time as well, so the whole "anti car company" worked really well. Basically, they had brilliant marketing, and the perfect timing as well. I remember the hype, even putting down a pre-order for a Model 3. Hell, my parents bought one too.

Other brands, however, are not doing as well. One good reason is they don't have the trust yet as their products are first gen products. However, they also seem to get hit harder with the EV truths then Teslas do. People tend to forgive Tesla more for the EV downsides, maybe because that's all they do and people who want ICE are not even thinking of Tesla. Other brands you have a choice, do I go with the ICE version or the EV version?

I also hesitate on the growth side... Tesla, ok, they're pretty well established.
Other brands? They are brand new to the segment, any sales = growth. New growth is only a part of the picture, and longer term/projected growth needs to be considered as well. You can't use incomplete data to prove that sorta point.

I think it's too early to really argue this yet. Give it a few years to see where things actually head. If things start going really downhill for sales of EVs you can bet your ass car companies will have something to say about the mandates.

[N Camarolina]

Originally Posted by speedyink1

To be clear, I think both are fine and can co-exist.

However, I'm not sure we can look at Tesla and go "this applies to every brands EV"

Tesla is a very trendy brand for one, with very dedicated followers. They started with middle finger to the big man attitude that really resonated with people. The automotive industry was in a bad spot in the public eye around that time as well, so the whole "anti car company" worked really well. Basically, they had brilliant marketing, and the perfect timing as well. I remember the hype, even putting down a pre-order for a Model 3. Hell, my parents bought one too.

Other brands, however, are not doing as well. One good reason is they don't have the trust yet as their products are first gen products. However, they also seem to get hit harder with the EV truths then Teslas do. People tend to forgive Tesla more for the EV downsides, maybe because that's all they do and people who want ICE are not even thinking of Tesla. Other brands you have a choice, do I go with the ICE version or the EV version?

I also hesitate on the growth side... Tesla, ok, they're pretty well established.
Other brands? They are brand new to the segment, any sales = growth. New growth is only a part of the picture, and longer term/projected growth needs to be considered as well. You can't use incomplete data to prove that sorta point.

I think it's too early to really argue this yet. Give it a few years to see where things actually head. If things start going really downhill for sales of EVs you can bet your ass car companies will have something to say about the mandates.

You make some good points especially about the "trendy" idea of Tesla. In my area of the country, we are now and rather suddenly inundated with Teslas (I counted 13 on a local, short distance drive last week), many of which seem to driven by Indian people. I was surprised with the tilt toward Indian buyers, as Indians (of which there are many around here being it is a Tech hub of the US) had previously been buying Toyotas almost exclusively. So I asked a few of my Indian friends and they said the move toward Tesla purchase was that Indians in my area are focused on tech in their day to day and want to purchase cars with a lot of "tech" in them (I guess the geek factor?), so no car fits that bill better than a Tesla. So if that's true, the motivating factor in this particular case was "trendy tech" rather than "do your part to save the earth."

You're right, for most companies, any EV sales = growth and so we have to be careful to look for absolute increases in EV sales (not just %). Having said that but Tesla, the company with real and already substantial levels of EV sales, managed to grow sales by 25% from 2022 to 2023 as evidenced by the table from the martinjlm post #166. I agree though that they've paid their dues and not all manufacturers will be able to follow their footsteps successfully on EVs.

[Devstrike]

At this point as long as I don't have to plug in a vehicle and can fuel it at a pump I don't really care what happens. I will say this though as far as comparing EV growth in the US to other countries we are dead last and I forget where I heard or who said it but the American consumer is the enemy to the EV mandate.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by Devstrike

At this point as long as I don't have to plug in a vehicle and can fuel it at a pump I don't really care what happens. I will say this though as far as comparing EV growth in the US to other countries we are dead last and I forget where I heard or who said it but the American consumer is the enemy to the EV mandate.

When you realize how convenient and easy lugging in at home is you will probably have a different opinion on at least your regular transportation. I won’t have this EV long as it’s my company car and the only reason I probably will get an ICE to replace it is cost of the vehicle.

China is HUGE in EV sales. Long story of how they came over here, paid engineers big salaries to teach them how to do it. BYD has past Tesla but there may be some accounting gymnastics but either way, like Tesla they are coming to Mexico and Europe with new plants (UAW pleas ask why all these new plants are in Mexico) and the pay make fantastic products from the reviews I’ve seen.