Electric Vehicles

[Windycity]

Originally Posted by Capricio

Curious to hear any thoughts about solid state tech and whether or not it's a "game changer", and if so, on what time horizon? I get an article in my newsfeed nearly every day about it. If it's within 5 years of hitting mainstream production and is anywhere near as good as it's being hyped for fast charging, less capacity loss over time, and more capacity in general, better thermal properties, it's worth waiting for. Where is the General with Solid State? Still fussing with Ultium lithium/gel skateboard packs and UAW talks?
Toyota seems to being playing this smarter than any other OEM.

900+ mile ranges, 10 minute charge times, no burning up like a magnesium flare, less than 10 percent loss over 10 years, etc. If this is true then a $100k EV today will be a $2k gen1 Nissan Leaf in short order.

https://www.theautopian.com/true-mis...-electric-car/

It is my opinion that solid state batteries are going to be a huge game changer in the EV world

Solid state batteries, take pretty much all of the controversy out of owning an electric vehicle


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[el ess A]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

And that’s what the OEMs are doing, though probably faster than the market can handle.

Or the market may even want.

Anyone ask the consumers what they want? "Build them, and hardly anyone comes" appears to be one outcome they didn't put in their EV calculations. Time and again it's what the OEM wants to produce, not what the consumer chooses. Of course that's a risk everyone's taking right now building the end use product with dwindling resources to charge them. Plans look great on paper. Not so much when actually implemented.

The more affluent can afford to buy the next new thing, and these "growing numbers" of EVs may continue. Who knows? But it's also possible the saturation point may come sooner than later depending on initial base pricing and consumer willingness to pay it, along with other economic factors. And then comes the HUGE sales to move excess inventory off the lots. And if folks at the car companies start getting laid off because of poor sales, they should just suck it up and point their fingers at the front offices for making such "great" decisions. I could be wrong. We'll just wait and see.

Everything is pure speculation at this point. OEM's are rolling the dice and hoping everything works out. I got a feeling they'll sit on the lots as charging facilities sit on the back burners at electric co-ops and other providers as they pull their thumbs out of their asses trying to get power to the EV stations. The local electric company has a hard time scheduling and getting "rural internet" cable to people out here. I can just see the speediness and efficiency issues when it comes to building EV charging stations. Selling 1,000 EVs in a month may sound good, but if you have to charge them at the house, you're not going far. And having to wait at the charging stations can't be much fun, either. Like those gas shortage lines of old.

No way in hell do I see charging capabilities keeping up with the EV production in the near-term. There's a lot of growing pains we haven't seen yet.

And then there's those who buy EVs to virtue signal that they "care" about the environment. Yay. People tend to have more important issues to worry about than climate change. Things like inflation, crime/safety, poverty, health care and unemployment all rank higher in things people worry about on a global scale based on some very recent polls.

I don't care if people want to buy their Teslas, Rivians, whatever. If that floats your boat, have at it. But I want to keep my ICE-mobiles and that doesn't make me a bad person. OEM's can build the EV's all they like, I just won't go to the showrooms any longer. Just not interested. Not many complained about ICE cars the last 100 years until now. Statute of whining limitations ran out years ago as far as I'm concerned. Buy your EV's, be happy, and leave my shit alone. Thank you very much.

[Windycity]

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

I think it's only inevitable that as more EVs hit the roads, that electricity costs will go up. It's going to happen.

Keep in mind in the United States, most utility companies are regulated at the state and municipal levels by public service commissions.

For example in Illinois our utility company (Comed) can’t simply increase the cost of a kilowatt hour at will like oil companies do with gas prices due to supply and demand

Electricity is not similar to other capitalist industries where supply and demand can dictate the price. There are alot of political factors at play


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[Capricio]

Hard to say, how much of it was poor planning/decision making at the board level vs "stakeholder ESG" agendas from mega-investment fund managers like Larry Fink/Blackrock. Either way, I think we all agree... too far, too fast. Prices are high, inventories are building up, new tech on the horizon... yeah, I'm waiting this out.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by el ess A

Or the market may even want.

Anyone ask the consumers what they want? "Build them, and hardly anyone comes" appears to be one outcome they didn't put in their EV calculations. Time and again it's what the OEM wants to produce, not what the consumer chooses. Of course that's a risk everyone's taking right now building the end use product with dwindling resources to charge them. Plans look great on paper. Not so much when actually implemented.

Dammit! Now you’re gonna make go find another presentation.

There are many many many surveys floating around asking people their preference of vehicles, how many doors, how many speakers, what type of propulsion system you prefer, Yada Yada Yada. All the OEMs do it. Sometimes using their own resources. Sometimes using 3rd party resources, including my company. I don’t get involved in conducting those surveys but I do get to see the outcomes. By and large, interest in EVs is growing fairly consistently as the issues that people have them are resolved. EVs used to have <100 mile range. Nobody wanted them. Now they have 300+ mile ranges. More people have an interest. They were too expensive. Now they’ve come down in price. Takes too long to charge them. As charge times drop, interest increases. All of these surveys are snapshot in time and need to be discussed in the timeframe they were conducted. In other words, looking at a 2021 survey of EV acceptance is meaningless in 2023 except to measure the shift in sentiment over time and following key developments.

Originally Posted by el ess A

The more affluent can afford to buy the next new thing, and these "growing numbers" of EVs may continue. Who knows? But it's also possible the saturation point may come sooner than later depending on initial base pricing and consumer willingness to pay it, along with other economic factors. And then comes the HUGE sales to move excess inventory off the lots. And if folks at the car companies start getting laid off because of poor sales, they should just suck it up and point their fingers at the front offices for making such "great" decisions. I could be wrong. We'll just wait and see.

There’s a lot of foreshadowing going on there. I’ll just pass on providing an opinion. Shit happens. Planning staffs are paid good money to figure it out ahead of time.

Originally Posted by el ess A

Everything is pure speculation at this point. OEM's are rolling the dice and hoping everything works out. I got a feeling they'll sit on the lots as charging facilities sit on the back burners at electric co-ops and other providers as they pull their thumbs out of their asses trying to get power to the EV stations. The local electric company has a hard time scheduling and getting "rural internet" cable to people out here. I can just see the speediness and efficiency issues when it comes to building EV charging stations. Selling 1,000 EVs in a month may sound good, but if you have to charge them at the house, you're not going far. And having to wait at the charging stations can't be much fun, either. Like those gas shortage lines of old.

Definitely not rolling the dice. Those well paid Planning departments I spoke of? They are all pretty much in consensus that EV is happening and that it’s more a question of how fast, not if. In the US we have an “advantage” of sorts in that it is happening in Asia and Europe first and we can actually see and measure the growth progression.

Originally Posted by el ess A

No way in hell do I see charging capabilities keeping up with the EV production in the near-term. There's a lot of growing pains we haven't seen yet.

YOU don’t see. The companies that are planning building and installing charging stations do see and they are consistently calibrating with multiple data sources, including my company, on where people are more likely to buy EV, how much, and when in order to plan where they are going to build the stations. I live this stuff everyday. Wish I could provide more detail but I’d be violating so many NDAs and. I’m not trying to get sued.

Originally Posted by el ess A

And then there's those who buy EVs to virtue signal that they "care" about the environment. Yay. People tend to have more important issues to worry about than climate change. Things like inflation, crime/safety, poverty, health care and unemployment all rank higher in things people worry about on a global scale based on some very recent polls.

Not everybody who buys an EV is virtue signaling. Maybe when they were 80. Mile per charge science experiments. But now they are highly capable luxury vehicles (quick…what’s the top selling luxury brand in Germany, China and the US?) and performance vehicles. I have a friend who is not an EV fan, but he sold his Chevrolet SS and bought a Tesla Model 3 Performance and never looked back. He bought it for pure raw performance.

Originally Posted by el ess A

I don't care if people want to buy their Teslas, Rivians, whatever. If that floats your boat, have at it. But I want to keep my ICE-mobiles and that doesn't make me a bad person. OEM's can build the EV's all they like, I just won't go to the showrooms any longer. Just not interested. Not many complained about ICE cars the last 100 years until now. Statute of whining limitations ran out years ago as far as I'm concerned. Buy your EV's, be happy, and leave my shit alone. Thank you very much.

For the most part that’s the way it should be. Just recognize that based on the decisions all the major OEMs are making right now (and from the past 3 - 5 years) you’ll still have ICE choices for the next couple decades, just fewer of them.

[el ess A]

EVs are coming. No stopping them now because of regulatory pie-in-the sky issues that raised their heads years ago. Picking arbitrary dates to threaten the OEM's into having to do what they do. Demonize ICE, push the EV.

It's not like all the OEM's woke up one day and and had an epiphany- "Hey, EVs are the way to go." Nobody will ever convince me of that. Ever. They were all worried about saving their own jobs or get regulated/fined into oblivion. And those arbitrary drop dead dates are all agenda driven, not based on real science. Recall over 30 years ago we were already supposed to be dead in 7 years if we didn't take action according to the alarmists. Kept having to push that back. Eventually they might get it right.

I almost keep forgetting that the most of the general motoring public are mindless sheep that don't give two craps about what kind of car they like or drive, and that the OEMs cater to those drivers. They outnumber us thousands to one. It's been this way for seemingly ever. And this is the main reason there will be no pushback to the overarching agenda to actually ban certain vehicles. To them, it's just another appliance. Get from point A to B. They don't care to get excited about getting behind the wheel. It's even more puzzling when I see a clapped out 5th gen, with bald tires, scraped quarter panels, McDonald's bags piled in the back seat, it makes me sad. They just obviously don't care, even with owning a 5th gen.

I would almost guarantee that most of the handful of people buying EVs strictly for raw performance will soon tire of it and regret their decision to ditch their conventional hot rods. They may not say it, but they'll be thinking it. They're likely the same guys back in their prime who complained about someone buying a turn-key fast car instead of building one. And what do they do? I can only wish them happiness. Couldn't fault them for adding to their fleet, but to ditch it in place of? Someone's wires got frayed somewhere. Sad stories are everywhere.

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by el ess A

It's not like all the OEM's woke up one day and and had an epiphany- "Hey, EVs are the way to go." Nobody will ever convince me of that. Ever. They were all worried about saving their own jobs or get regulated/fined into oblivion. And those arbitrary drop dead dates are all agenda driven, not based on real science. Recall over 30 years ago we were already supposed to be dead in 7 years if we didn't take action according to the alarmists. Kept having to push that back. Eventually they might get it right.

When forced adoption of EVs brings about the end of volcanic/tectnonic activity that drives El Nino/La Nina weather patterns, and our leading by example at great expense shames the ChiComms into using green energy, the main causes of climate change an pollution on earth, you will STAND CORRECTED, sir.... REPENT! Join the new ESG religion, BELIEVE with enough FAITH, then, upending an entire industry with marginal, at best, environmental impacts will lead to planetary salvation.

[Martinjlm]

What I think a lot of folks in this thread are missing is that if the US did nothing, if the Domestic 3 did nothing, what we now know as an automotive industry would be 100% owned by China, S. Korea, and Japan. That’s what I like about the automotive sections of the Inflation Reduction Act. It basically says “if the market shifts to EV, we’re gonna make certain that they’re made here and people can get gainful employment in building them.

1. It requires qualifying vehicles be built in North America. This protects jobs, since EVs imported from China, Japan, S. Korea and Europe won’t qualify.
2. It requires batteries be manufactured in North America. Based on this alone we have seen battery plants (and jobs) that would have been created in China and S. Korea shifting to the US, Canada, and Mexico.
3. The requirement that minerals used in batteries NOT come from China or other unfriendly nations and NOT be sourced from child labor sources.
4. The price caps on cars ($55k) and trucks and utilities ($80k) to prevent the incentives from just being ways to subsidize luxury purchases.
5. The Household Income caps ($150k / $225k / $300k) to ensure that the incentives or not soaked up by the wealth.

North America is the 3rd largest automotive market and the top two are shifting to electric vehicles faster than we are. The major automakers are shifting to produce product (EV) for those two larger markets. They are not going to maintain an entirely separate technology group just to satisfy the 10 - 15% of smaller market customers who oppose the shift.

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by el ess A

I almost keep forgetting that the most of the general motoring public are mindless sheep that don't give two craps about what kind of car they like or drive, and that the OEMs cater to those drivers. They outnumber us thousands to one.

Interesting point of view and I think you're right. All the Toyota Rav4 hybrids on my block are evidence that most folks just want a boring, reliable, comfortable appliance that is safe and economical.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Better numbers….
First chart…70% of households that dispose of an EV replace it with an EV. Modeled using two different methods (the details of which I don’t fully understand so I won’t try to explain the difference).

That is actually really bad.

Why? Because anyone who owns an EV today is someone who really wants to love EV's. If 30% of those people
bail on them you've got a huge problem.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

That is actually really bad.

Why? Because anyone who owns an EV today is someone who really wants to love EV's. If 30% of those people
bail on them you've got a huge problem.

Glass 70% full…glass 30% empty.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Personally, I think what makes sense is a good mix of ICE/Hybrid and EV.

Me too. 100% agreement

Fact of the mater is, the OEMs have decided pretty much on their own that going all in on EV is the way to go. <snip> I bolded and underlined that because even though the OEMs have pretty much made the all EV decisions themselves (most in 2019 and 2020; prior to the current US administration) a lot of the basis for the decisions comes from regulation coming to ICE vehicles in 2027 that would require significant investment in new technology to clean up NOx and particulate emissions.

So the OEMs switching to EVs because of coming regulations is "pretty much on their own"?

That would be like saying if govt regulations made raising cattle exorbitantly expensive that McDonalds would switch to vegetarian fare "pretty much on their own"

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

Me too. 100% agreement



So the OEMs switching to EVs because of coming regulations is "pretty much on their own"?

That would be like saying if govt regulations made raising cattle exorbitantly expensive that McDonalds would switch to vegetarian fare "pretty much on their own"

Yes and no. They are switching to EVs because that’s where their major markets are going. Their major markets are switching because of regulatory activities in those countries, not the US regulations. Aside from CARB legislation, most of the US legislation is focused on cleaning up the ICE. I know we don’t like to hear this, but the US is the tail trying to wag the global auto market dog. And the dog ain’t having it. The global dog is going EV no matter what the US tail does. So the US brands are doing their best to get ahead of it. Rather than spend billion$ that can never be recovered in vehicle price on ICE technology, they are shifting their development billion$ to electric vehicle platforms, batteries, and components.

[Idaho2018GTPremium]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Yes and no. They are switching to EVs because that’s where their major markets are going. Their major markets are switching because of regulatory activities in those countries, not the US regulations. Aside from CARB legislation, most of the US legislation is focused on cleaning up the ICE. I know we don’t like to hear this, but the US is the tail trying to wag the global auto market dog. And the dog ain’t having it. The global dog is going EV no matter what the US tail does. So the US brands are doing their best to get ahead of it. Rather than spend billion$ that can never be recovered in vehicle price on ICE technology, they are shifting their development billion$ to electric vehicle platforms, batteries, and components.

I believe you, and you are obviously well informed, but yes, it still sucks to see the end of performance ICE development beyond Italian supercars (at least those will continue for a while). Maybe the ICE Corvette will provide an incentive to bring back a 7th gen V8 Camaro someday. A future of EVs isn't intriguing to me whatsoever. When a manufacturer comes out with a new EV, even Lamborghini, Lotus, or Porsche, I just don't care about it, no matter how much power it has. I don't even care about the Rimac supercar EV.

Maybe that will change over time, and I hope future EVs are exciting somehow, but right now, they don't excite me - it's like they are using a cheat code and that isn't fun for anyone. And no, adding a fake digital engine rev (ahem, Dodge) doesn't make them exciting. It's extremely cheesy and corny.