Quote:
Originally Posted by Martinjlm
Part of what we are seeing here is that EVs are mature. EVs have progressed from being tiny short mileage science experiments (Mitsubishi iMiEV) or super pricey luxury vehicles (Model S, Taycan) to being mainstream moderately priced vehicles (Mustang Mach E, VW ID.4) and fully functioning, even commercial vehicle capable (Ford Lightning, Silverado EV) that are available in every form factor from small sedan to CUV to SUV to monster pickup (Hummer EV).
The next step is to improve the cost of EVs and improve charge times. There are people burning midnight oil to achieve both of those things. It will happen sooner than later. Part of the reason automakers are actually ahead of the government in embracing the move towards EV is the long term cost potential. Right now GM has somewhere around 12-15 vehicle platforms in development and production, depending on how you define platform. When GM shifts to mostly EV, they will be able to deliver most of their portfolio using two platforms, BEV3 for sedans and crossovers, BET for trucks and SUVs. They will be able to mix and match eMotors and drive units to achieve performance and capability targets. Battery sizes will be flexible like lego sets to deliver multiple options for range and vehicle output. Once these are in place, development costs per unit produced will drop dramatically.
2021 was the year that EVs crossed the 10% of sales line in California. 2022 will be the year they cross the 5% line nationwide. And as a nation, the US is far behind other leading car markets.
Still, ICE will not totally disappear. There are some use cases where ICE continues to work best. It’s not so much an “either or” scenario, it’s an “and” scenario.
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So, which is it? EV's ARE 'moderately priced' or there needs to be continuing improvement on the cost? I don't believe we are EVER going to see electric vehicles at price points to compare with their ICE counterparts (with everything else being the same - size, passenger capacity, cargo, range per "tank", etc.).
While the vehicle part of EV may have a
level of maturity, the power part does not. We need to lighten batteries, reduce size, increase charge capacity, decrease charge time, reduce hazard risk during charging, improve ability to recycle, decrease cost, and significantly improve reliability. And that's just off the top of my head.
I still genuinely don't understand why there was never a market for a diesel electric automobile... All the benefits that everyone decries from the electric motor part of the world combined with a smaller overall battery pack that can be kept charged by a tiny diesel engine (which could be controlled with stop/start technology). Seems it would be super reliable, able to traverse long distances, able to actually refuel in short orders of time, and would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions through the way the engine operation would be controlled.