And So It Begins - The End of the HP Wars??

[serper3]

Originally Posted by Chrome383Z

Actually the price of gas will drop, supply/demand. It could very well get really cheap - unless the govt taxes the crap out of it.

I don’t see 5 years. Maybe in affluent areas, I see Teslas regularly, but in the rural town I grew up in I haven’t seen one. And there will be pushback outside of affluent areas as well. They don’t have the infrastructure, hell the affluent areas really don’t have the infrastructure either for anything more then the size of the market now which is just niche.

I like electric cars, but I think 50% at 5 years is optimistic. 10 maybe and a lot would have to happen for that to work as well. :shrug:

If I was a product manager at GM I’d keep a bucket of ICE products in the pipeline (or at least hybrid solutions). If the govt takes a political swing in the opposite direction electric could go the other way… IMO I think it’s a HUGE risk committing to all electric this early in the game.

I work with power plants for work, there is potential for electric prices to jump considerably as well. Running a peaker plant at full capacity that it wasn’t designed to do is going to incur costs. Yeah the grid might be able to support the higher demand, but not at the prices we get now. So look for electric bills to increase significantly to operate your home. And with restrictions on coal and even some pushback on NG that’ll get worse. Power is power. It has to be created somewhere.

If your into investing I’d look at turbine manufacturers and folks in Power Gen. If electric does become mainstream these markets will explode.

This is spot on. As electric cars get more popular, the electric car rebates, and electricity subsidies for electric cars, all these programs will end and while demand for gas falls, these technologies will be competitive for quite some time. gov't is already trying to legislate into making people switch but as grid issues arise, etc.,I think when the time comes gas will be an option well into the future.

Either way for me and my use, and a lot of other truck owners, electric trucks won't cut it unless the tech improves drastically. I hunt and ride dirt bikes. I am not taking an electric truck into remote areas and then 50+ miles off pavement...

[ember1205]

Originally Posted by Chrome383Z

Actually the price of gas will drop, supply/demand. It could very well get really cheap - unless the govt taxes the crap out of it.

I don’t see 5 years. Maybe in affluent areas, I see Teslas regularly, but in the rural town I grew up in I haven’t seen one. And there will be pushback outside of affluent areas as well. They don’t have the infrastructure, hell the affluent areas really don’t have the infrastructure either for anything more then the size of the market now which is just niche.

I like electric cars, but I think 50% at 5 years is optimistic. 10 maybe and a lot would have to happen for that to work as well. :shrug:

If I was a product manager at GM I’d keep a bucket of ICE products in the pipeline (or at least hybrid solutions). If the govt takes a political swing in the opposite direction electric could go the other way… IMO I think it’s a HUGE risk committing to all electric this early in the game.

I work with power plants for work, there is potential for electric prices to jump considerably as well. Running a peaker plant at full capacity that it wasn’t designed to do is going to incur costs. Yeah the grid might be able to support the higher demand, but not at the prices we get now. So look for electric bills to increase significantly to operate your home. And with restrictions on coal and even some pushback on NG that’ll get worse. Power is power. It has to be created somewhere.

If your into investing I’d look at turbine manufacturers and folks in Power Gen. If electric does become mainstream these markets will explode.

A lot of this could be dead on, but it's likely all at least pretty close. Here a couple of thoughts, including some that I think you sort of hinted at, but didn't directly state...

- While full EV's have been a toy for the 1% for a little while, they are moving a bit more in the direction of being mainstream. The new wall they are pushing up against is a combination of infrastructure to support the significant demand increase for charging and straight-up cash to buy. There are plenty of areas where median income simply will not support the ability to purchase EV's at the price point most are demanding.

- Manufacturers moving to all electric is totally fine. First, it will be at least 5-7 years before any manufacturer truly gets there. Even longer when you consider "GM" to be the manufacturer and not any one of the nameplates. We just lost a dealership in this area because they were unwilling to make the massive investment to support the "all electric future" of Cadillac (they didn't sell enough units to justify the investment). So, you're going to see dealerships fade off, you'll have to travel to major metro areas to actually car shop, and those areas will be happy to sell EV only.

- The used car market is going to boom as manufacturers stop offering ICE-powered cars. Invest in companies like Carvana and Vroom that sell used only as that time draws near and you'll walk away with some nice investment profits.

- "The cloud" exerts a massively larger burden on the electric grid that EV's will for quite a while. As cloud service providers encounter issues because they "break" the grid, money will get spent to improve the public infrastructure (or they will finally build their OWN power generation and remove themselves from the grid completely).

[Chrome383Z]

Originally Posted by serper3

This is spot on. As electric cars get more popular, the electric car rebates, and electricity subsidies for electric cars, all these programs will end and while demand for gas falls, these technologies will be competitive for quite some time. gov't is already trying to legislate into making people switch but as grid issues arise, etc.,I think when the time comes gas will be an option well into the future.

Either way for me and my use, and a lot of other truck owners, electric trucks won't cut it unless the tech improves drastically. I hunt and ride dirt bikes. I am not taking an electric truck into remote areas and then 50+ miles off pavement...

Same. I might drive 1k miles in a couple days for work in the Midwest, again I like electric cars, the instantaneous torque is outstanding. But I can’t risk running a battery low and being late for a meeting because I have to charge for 30min at a gas station (if I can find a fast charging station). And yeah my truck, no way will I consider electric for that.

However I do think there’s a decent population of 1500 buyers that really don’t use a truck as a truck, and would be fine with electric.

It’s going to be interesting for sure. I just hope GM doesn’t shoot themselves in the ass by investing 100% in a tech that is unknown at this point. Tesla did well because they targeted the affluent “green” group. That market is only so large… and honestly I still think it’s a small percentage of the overall market.

Unless the government forces it, but that could change in 2024. Still think it’s a risk…

[S8ER01Z]

Originally Posted by Idaho2018GTPremium

HC Durango was planned only for a 1 year run.

This


Dodge didn’t expect them to sell well and only planned for 2,000 in total. Demand was high enough (sold out immediately) that they bumped the number to 3,000. We were lucky enough to get one but the chip shortages and plant shutdowns makes it doubtful they well make all 3,000 before they are done.

[serper3]

Originally Posted by ember1205

- While full EV's have been a toy for the 1% for a little while, they are moving a bit more in the direction of being mainstream. The new wall they are pushing up against is a combination of infrastructure to support the significant demand increase for charging and straight-up cash to buy. There are plenty of areas where median income simply will not support the ability to purchase EV's at the price point most are demanding.

I just don't think the tech is there yet for how big the push to electric has been.

I saw an article recently that said that out of all people that have purchased fully electric vehicles in the last 5-7 years (dont recall the exact time frame), about 1 out of 4-5 people decided to go back to a non fully electric car.

Close to me there are several tesla superchargers lots. Tesla/fanboys try to sell you on : just go eat or shop for 30 min while your tesla charges... in reality 85% of these people sit in their cars while they charge smh

If you are wealthy, it is a lot easier to live with 1 of 4 of your cars being electric. harder if you live in an apartment, have only 1 car per person, and can't charge your car at your house overnight.

Originally Posted by Chrome383Z

Same. I might drive 1k miles in a couple days for work in the Midwest, again I like electric cars, the instantaneous torque is outstanding. But I can’t risk running a battery low and being late for a meeting because I have to charge for 30min at a gas station (if I can find a fast charging station). And yeah my truck, no way will I consider electric for that.

However I do think there’s a decent population of 1500 buyers that really don’t use a truck as a truck, and would be fine with electric.

It’s going to be interesting for sure. I just hope GM doesn’t shoot themselves in the ass by investing 100% in a tech that is unknown at this point. Tesla did well because they targeted the affluent “green” group. That market is only so large… and honestly I still think it’s a small percentage of the overall market.

Unless the government forces it, but that could change in 2024. Still think it’s a risk…

I think electric cars will be cool in their own way. I am planning on waiting 5-7ish years and by then hopefully the charging times and range will improve drasitically. Think what will happen though with current electric cars when the tech improves significantly. I think over the course of a few years as production ramps up, any existing electric cars will fall substantially in value.

[ember1205]

Originally Posted by serper3

I just don't think the tech is there yet for how big the push to electric has been.

I saw an article recently that said that out of all people that have purchased fully electric vehicles in the last 5-7 years (dont recall the exact time frame), about 1 out of 4-5 people decided to go back to a non fully electric car.

Close to me there are several tesla superchargers lots. Tesla/fanboys try to sell you on : just go eat or shop for 30 min while your tesla charges... in reality 85% of these people sit in their cars while they charge smh

If you are wealthy, it is a lot easier to live with 1 of 4 of your cars being electric. harder if you live in an apartment, have only 1 car per person, and can't charge your car at your house overnight.

I agree that there are still issues with the technology. I can't AFFORD to grab a meal every time I need to charge my car while driving from Maine to Florida, and I sure as hell am not going to spend 30 minutes every time I have to "fill up" on a long road trip.

Lack of charging capabilities at apartment buildings is an infrastructure issue, and is exacerbated in big cities where population density is extremely high and there simply isn't anywhere to PUT charging facilities (Yes, I know vehicle ownership is lower is big cities with good public transport, but they're still there).