GM's Battery Electric lineup is going to be HOT

[Nilly Welson]

Hot my ass...Electric leaves me cold.

[Hops]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Then you aren’t looking at the right stuff.

Energy density is only a part of it. The more important metric is the cost for that density. That is coming down HUGE.

Same as cost per HP only that is going up.

Solid state batteries will, when practical, change all of this.

No doubt batteries are getting cheaper. But i don't want a numb 5000lb car with 600mi cruising range. I don't car how fast it is. I think Lotus has the right idea with the Evija. It has a small/light battery (70kwhr) packaged in a way to concentrate the mass, reduce it's polar moment, and be easily swapped. It's doesn't have a lot of range... it's enough to get through a track day session. The battery would probably have a rough life being deeply discharged all the time...but i'm in dream land thinking about a $2M car... LOL.


The GM ultium battery is supposedly stack-able, thus perhaps it could follow the form the Evija has?

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Then you aren’t looking at the right stuff.

Energy density is only a part of it. The more important metric is the cost for that density. That is coming down HUGE.

Same as cost per HP only that is going up.

Solid state batteries will, when practical, change all of this.

I am willing to guess that the cost is going to plateau soon, and you already see that with the current trend. The cost decrease is slowing down. This is especially if you want the lithium to be ethically mined.

It's kind of like digital storage: the cost for SSD has come down enough for most people to afford a smaller one to run their system on, but not enough for them to completely replace HDD. I doubt it will ever match the price per capacity of HDD. Same with battery vs fuel here. This is why you see some fairly affordable hybrids from Toyota now. You don't need a large battery to improve the efficiency of ICE significantly, and a small battery doesn't cost too much nowadays. I think the price difference between a non-hybrid RAV-4 and hybrid one is only CAN$3k, last I checked.

And don't count your chickens yet with solid state batteries... It's literally goes against the cost per density of your argument as of now.

[Chrome383Z]

We seemed to skip over hybrids. That seems like the most logical solution.

An E85 hybrid would burn pretty damn clean and give nice results.

[Devstrike]

I would buy a hybrid actually but a full EV is out of the question. Looks like Toyota did the twin turbo hybrid route with their Tundra reveal and the hybrid is focused according to the Chief engineer on power. Just do that if they are doing another Camaro with a V8 Hybrid and you will have a higher chance of pleasing both the ICE and EV crowds. There will be those that will still hate the idea of a hybrid from either camps though.

[Number 3]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

I am willing to guess that the cost is going to plateau soon, and you already see that with the current trend. The cost decrease is slowing down. This is especially if you want the lithium to be ethically mined.

It's kind of like digital storage: the cost for SSD has come down enough for most people to afford a smaller one to run their system on, but not enough for them to completely replace HDD. I doubt it will ever match the price per capacity of HDD. Same with battery vs fuel here. This is why you see some fairly affordable hybrids from Toyota now. You don't need a large battery to improve the efficiency of ICE significantly, and a small battery doesn't cost too much nowadays. I think the price difference between a non-hybrid RAV-4 and hybrid one is only CAN$3k, last I checked.

And don't count your chickens yet with solid state batteries... It's literally goes against the cost per density of your argument as of now.

Costs are still coming down and still in big chunks. And people go to work everyday to make them cheaper still. Not something ICEs can say as they become increasingly more expensive to meet emissions.

As for solid state? Again a lot of money and effort being put into that as well, but not even counting eggs let alone chickens.

And with the prospect of cheap hydrogen to manufacture steel coming on, I’m still thinking FCEVs have a tiny shot. Tiny.

For a while at least, gasoline is the easiest to transport, store energy dense fuel available.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Number 3

Costs are still coming down and still in big chunks. And people go to work everyday to make them cheaper still. Not something ICEs can say as they become increasingly more expensive to meet emissions.

As for solid state? Again a lot of money and effort being put into that as well, but not even counting eggs let alone chickens.

And with the prospect of cheap hydrogen to manufacture steel coming on, I’m still thinking FCEVs have a tiny shot. Tiny.

For a while at least, gasoline is the easiest to transport, store energy dense fuel available.

With this image, I don't know if I'd call that huge now. As I said, it looks like it's plateauing to me. Eventually, it will mostly be about material cost, and there is only so much you can do about that.



And once you have an electric drive motor, you don't need a super complex gas engine. Look at the Prius engine. Literally, the only "modern" tech it has is VVT to allow Atkinson cycle, but VVT is pretty much standard nowadays so it's a pretty simple engine. Especially if you are just using ICE as an onboard generator, there is no need for a lot of complexity for emissions or performance because EM takes care of all that.

[Fak_Ork]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

With this image, I don't know if I'd call that huge now. As I said, it looks like it's plateauing to me. Eventually, it will mostly be about material cost, and there is only so much you can do about that.



And once you have an electric drive motor, you don't need a super complex gas engine. Look at the Prius engine. Literally, the only "modern" tech it has is VVT to allow Atkinson cycle, but VVT is pretty much standard nowadays so it's a pretty simple engine. Especially if you are just using ICE as an onboard generator, there is no need for a lot of complexity for emissions or performance because EM takes care of all that.

ICE as an onboard generator adds all the complexity and maintenance of a, well, an ICE- with the added weight of a battery pack.

The whole deal is to shift power production to the grid as it increasingly works off of cleaner fuels including renewables, nuclear and natural gas. I'll grant that Hybrid tech is efficient but there are other considerations. If absolute MPG is the goal- and an ICE isn't a disqualifier- then the Toyota Camry with it's basic old 2.5 4 Cylinder and ability to routinely get better than 40 MPG solves everything.

Hybrid is really just an ICE with a battery to reclaim kinetic energy invested, I don't think that's the direction we're headed

[redcoats1976]

my wifes honda civic coupe gets around 46 mpg on the highway.its hard to get exited over some electric SUV that costs double the price.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Fak_Ork

ICE as an onboard generator adds all the complexity and maintenance of a, well, an ICE- with the added weight of a battery pack.



The whole deal is to shift power production to the grid as it increasingly works off of cleaner fuels including renewables, nuclear and natural gas. I'll grant that Hybrid tech is efficient but there are other considerations. If absolute MPG is the goal- and an ICE isn't a disqualifier- then the Toyota Camry with it's basic old 2.5 4 Cylinder and ability to routinely get better than 40 MPG solves everything.



Hybrid is really just an ICE with a battery to reclaim kinetic energy invested, I don't think that's the direction we're headed

Outside of engineering, no one really cares about complexity. Consumers care about cost. Using my analogy before, do you think most people just reject HDD because it is more complex than SSD? No. It's a cheaper means for data storage. That's all that matters. Engines and gas tanks can be made cheaply. Batteries, not so much. And when you have ICE, you don't need a massive battery.

Also, hybrid is not super complex compared to an ICE car. With an EM, a multi-ratio transmission becomes optional, and it can also replace parts like a starter, help drive accessories like A/C compressor.

Any engine can do relatively good MPG on highways nowadays. You see people rave about getting 30+ MPG on highways here. The problem is city driving. You are using the least efficient band of an ICE engine to get the car moving. EM means you don't need to idle and you could just use the EM for low-speed crawling. Give an example of an ICE-only car that can get 46 MPG in the city like a Prius. I will wait. Diesel can come close, but not quite.

Yes, EV might be the ultimate answer, but until we actually figure out the power distribution and batteries see some major improvements, hybrids are a good intermediate. It doesn't require any change when it comes to how you will use your car, but just the improvement in efficiency could be worth it.

[redcoats1976]

i guess i will hold out for the fusion powered ZL-1

[gpskinzhut]

If there's a new Camaro EV or hybrid, I'll take it for a rip. If i like it, it'll go in my garage. EV/ICE, so long as it's fun and a bowtie.

[Fak_Ork]

Originally Posted by UnknownJinX

Outside of engineering, no one really cares about complexity. Consumers care about cost. Using my analogy before, do you think most people just reject HDD because it is more complex than SSD? No. It's a cheaper means for data storage. That's all that matters. Engines and gas tanks can be made cheaply. Batteries, not so much. And when you have ICE, you don't need a massive battery.

Also, hybrid is not super complex compared to an ICE car. With an EM, a multi-ratio transmission becomes optional, and it can also replace parts like a starter, help drive accessories like A/C compressor.

Any engine can do relatively good MPG on highways nowadays. You see people rave about getting 30+ MPG on highways here. The problem is city driving. You are using the least efficient band of an ICE engine to get the car moving. EM means you don't need to idle and you could just use the EM for low-speed crawling. Give an example of an ICE-only car that can get 46 MPG in the city like a Prius. I will wait. Diesel can come close, but not quite.

Yes, EV might be the ultimate answer, but until we actually figure out the power distribution and batteries see some major improvements, hybrids are a good intermediate. It doesn't require any change when it comes to how you will use your car, but just the improvement in efficiency could be worth it.

What kind of power distribution improvements do you think we need for maybe an additional 10-20 percent of people to be running a single 240 volt circuit for an average of 2 or 3 hours per night in perhaps 10 years? New large capacity wind farms, for example, come with distribution to the existing grid which will need to be expanded and bulked up incrementally, yes, but overall distribution is overstated as an issue and storage inherent to BEV's underappreciated.

The main point of the switch is reduction in carbon emissions and you make good points about the efficiency of Hybrids but the presence vs the absence of an ICE is a bigger deal than you're admitting.

I think both ICE and Hybrids will need to both remain in the mix for decades to come. GM's push to force the market is peculiar to me for their lack of volume successes to date, the aggressive goals they've set and the likelihood they will abandon profitable, needed vehicles to switch to vehicles that buyers will get elsewhere. Going to be a wild ride.

[UnknownJinX]

Originally Posted by Fak_Ork

What kind of power distribution improvements do you think we need for maybe an additional 10-20 percent of people to be running a single 240 volt circuit for an average of 2 or 3 hours per night in perhaps 10 years? New large capacity wind farms, for example, come with distribution to the existing grid which will need to be expanded and bulked up incrementally, yes, but overall distribution is overstated as an issue and storage inherent to BEV's underappreciated.

The main point of the switch is reduction in carbon emissions and you make good points about the efficiency of Hybrids but the presence vs the absence of an ICE is a bigger deal than you're admitting.

I think both ICE and Hybrids will need to both remain in the mix for decades to come. GM's push to force the market is peculiar to me for their lack of volume successes to date, the aggressive goals they've set and the likelihood they will abandon profitable, needed vehicles to switch to vehicles that buyers will get elsewhere. Going to be a wild ride.

Apartment strata and people who park on the sides of the streets would like to have a word with you. That's what I meant by distribution, and that's where I think hybrid could be a practical solution for them, for now.

And let's face it, nobody will care about carbon emissions if that affects your life habit greatly. Would you tell people to stop eating meat because of cow farts? And they don't need to feel guilty, really. People as individuals aren't the biggest carbon emitters in the first place. That's why IMO it's better to take smaller steps than demanding a large step that's difficult to take and getting nothing done.

With numbers, I can confidently say that ICE isn't making that large of a difference. 2020 basically cut down a lot of stuff that would create carbon emissions, like air travel, commuting, etc. And what decrease did we see? 6.4% reduction in global CO2 emissions compared to 2019. Not nothing, and you can debate that some other services that emit CO2 have got more demand(like streaming), but look at the collateral damage Coronavirus is causing, is it worth that small of a reduction? This also tells us that even the combinations of all Average Joe's aren't that large.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00090-3