GM's Battery Electric lineup is going to be HOT - Page 12

Martinjlm · 10-08-2021, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 90503

No. I'm saying if you have them, what's the big secret?

On one hand they tell us ICE is ending and will end. But what comes after that is a big mystery.

My last 10 years at GM I got paid big bucks to peak under the covers of what everyone else was doing. Every major automaker has a competitor intelligence team that does the same. Knowing what your competitor is doing can provide a big advantage in the marketplace, especially if you can preempt them. Secrecy of product development is a big deal at all automakers, not just GM. GM just happens to be famous for “pre-programming” it’s executives to say “I am not at liberty to discuss future products”

Part of the rationale is not tipping the hand to competitors. Another part is, if you tell customers too far in advance what might be coming, they might wait and not purchase what’s available today.

raptor5244 · 10-08-2021, 09:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

The original incentive was purposed to allow manufacturers to offer EVs at "reasonable" price without losing their @$$. They could offer the vehicles at prices that didn't lose too much money in the first generations. The incentives reduced the price to the consumer to make them more competitive. The incentive was to apply to the first 200,000 qualifying vehicles for each manufacturer with the expectation that by then, they should be able to improve their product cost to offer the vehicles at the same net price to the consumer without losing their @$$.

Tesla and GM are the only automakers that have crossed the 200k line, so they no longer are eligible for the incentive. Both have reduced the prices of their EVs to be in line with where other manufacturers are, net of the incentive.

This is spot on. The legislation that is in play is to

expand the 200,000 number to something higher. I'm hearing 400,000. This would make Tesla and GM eligible.
provide additional incentive for EVs made in the US (Tesla and GM would both qualify) and even more if the vehicle is built by union labor (GM would qualify, Tesla would not)
cap the price of EVs for which the incentives would apply (ie - stop subsidizing affluent buyers). Model S and Model X would probably fall out of eligibility, as would several if not all Cadillac and Hummer models. Model 3 and Model Y, and Chevrolets and Buicks would most likely be good to go, as well as Ford and Stellantis products.

Increasing the cap to 400,000 would not do much for Tesla buyers. Tesla delivered 241,300 EVs last quarter alone.

Martinjlm · 10-08-2021, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by raptor5244

Increasing the cap to 400,000 would not do much for Tesla buyers. Tesla delivered 241,300 EVs last quarter alone.

Global or US? Only US deliveries would be counted towards the 400k.

Number 3 · 10-09-2021, 09:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

People still own horses.

Yes and some people use horses for work (crowd control and border patrol) but las t checked very few us them to get to work or run out to the grocery store.

ICEs will be like that in 20 years or so.

Remember 2030 is 9 years away and both the last 2 remains US auto makers have committed to pretty much being all in on EVs.

Number 3 · 10-09-2021, 09:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

People still own horses.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

My last 10 years at GM I got paid big bucks to peak under the covers of what everyone else was doing. Every major automaker has a competitor intelligence team that does the same. Knowing what your competitor is doing can provide a big advantage in the marketplace, especially if you can preempt them. Secrecy of product development is a big deal at all automakers, not just GM. GM just happens to be famous for “pre-programming” it’s executives to say “I am not at liberty to discuss future products”

Part of the rationale is not tipping the hand to competitors. Another part is, if you tell customers too far in advance what might be coming, they might wait and not purchase what’s available today.

Yeah imagine how bad Gen6 sales would be if GM announced a Gen7 for 2023.

Gunkk · 10-09-2021, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Number 3

ICEs will be like that in 20 years or so.

I'd wager closer to 75 years.

90503 · 10-09-2021, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Number 3

Yeah imagine how bad Gen6 sales would be if GM announced a Gen7 for 2023.

Probably no worse than announcing the end of a product line two or three years in advance with no replacement after that.

GM basically admits failure, then wonders why sales lag for the next few years up to the end.

If you want to keep secrets, make it when you plan to announce you have no confidence in a vehicle you expect customers to buy.

Martinjlm · 10-09-2021, 12:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 90503

Probably no worse than announcing the end of a product line two or three years in advance with no replacement after that.

GM basically admits failure, then wonders why sales lag for the next few years up to the end.

If you want to keep secrets, make it when you plan to announce you have no confidence in a vehicle you expect customers to buy.

GM has not announced the end of Camaro. They have, however, provided enough information to allow those who are paying attention to connect the dots. It was not their intention to leave the breadcrumbs that they have, but since they have, we use them.

Number 3 · 10-09-2021, 12:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gunkk

I'd wager closer to 75 years.

Let's take a look.

If GM and Ford are nearly 100% EV by 2030 as they say they are in only 9 more years, and most other OEMs following suit you will be hard pressed to buy an ICE by 2035 with the exception of low volume high dollar hangers on.

10 years after that you will have replaced half of the cars on the road with EVs.

So yeah maybe more than 20, but wayyyyy sooner than 75. Most on this website will see it happen.

90503 · 10-09-2021, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Number 3

Let's take a look.

If GM and Ford are nearly 100% EV by 2030 as they say they are in only 9 more years, and most other OEMs following suit you will be hard pressed to buy an ICE by 2035 with the exception of low volume high dollar hangers on.

10 years after that you will have replaced half of the cars on the road with EVs.

So yeah maybe more than 20, but wayyyyy sooner than 75. Most on this website will see it happen.

That all happens if EVs sell as well as ICE does now. EV sales could very well tank depending on price and charging availability and electricity cost. And if ICE is left alone and not made impossible to own and operate.

Imagining the EV future as if it already happened is way too premature. It's not inevitable as many would prefer everyone else believe. GM's plan doesn't make it so for everyone.

The manufacturers may find themselves producing more units than the system can accommodate and more than the car buyers can afford or want.

xstuntman · 10-09-2021, 03:23 PM

I have yet to see any charging stations here.
I have yet to read about any upgrades to the grid here to handle the huge amount of home charging too.

We are all gonna be driving around with a copper hook to catch a lightning bolt like Back To The Future 2.

Hops · 10-13-2021, 02:43 PM

I have zero interest in SUV's. I just can't stand them. (although we have one for the happy wife cause) Why is it that when i research new EV's, they almost all SUV's or $1million+ supercars?

Martinjlm · 10-13-2021, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hops

I have zero interest in SUV's. I just can't stand them. (although we have one for the happy wife cause) Why is it that when i research new EV's, they almost all SUV's or $1million+ supercars?

Since the initial investment for the technology is so high, at least for the first generation, automakers had two potential paths to follow:

Lowest cost of compliance
Accelerate cost recovery through pricing

Nissan took the first approach when they launched the Leaf. They were focused on meeting all CAFE requirements and also generating EV credits. So they cut a lot of corners on the styling and content of the Leaf in order to lose the least amount of money they could while racking up EV credits.

Tesla took the second approach and went luxury out the box. That way they could price the product high enough to make progress on recovering investment. Now that Tesla’s technology is more mature and going into second and third generation hardware, their costs are lower and they can move down market with their product and sell more volume.

Other automakers that are bringing EVs into the market are now trying to maximize their pricing flexibility and sell in higher volume by offering EVs in the vehicle segments that have the highest sales volumes. SUVs, CUVs, and pickup trucks.

Hops · 10-13-2021, 09:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Since the initial investment for the technology is so high, at least for the first generation, automakers had two potential paths to follow:

Lowest cost of compliance
Accelerate cost recovery through pricing

Nissan took the first approach when they launched the Leaf. They were focused on meeting all CAFE requirements and also generating EV credits. So they cut a lot of corners on the styling and content of the Leaf in order to lose the least amount of money they could while racking up EV credits.

Tesla took the second approach and went luxury out the box. That way they could price the product high enough to make progress on recovering investment. Now that Tesla’s technology is more mature and going into second and third generation hardware, their costs are lower and they can move down market with their product and sell more volume.

Other automakers that are bringing EVs into the market are now trying to maximize their pricing flexibility and sell in higher volume by offering EVs in the vehicle segments that have the highest sales volumes. SUVs, CUVs, and pickup trucks.

That's interesting. Looks like Tesla made the right choice. I wonder if cars like the Leaf (i've heard them called 'compliance cars'), actually made things worse for EV reputations, everyone knows about their costly replacement costs of their air cooled battery.
In the race for a good, somewhat affordable, high volume EV, it seems the Bolt has beat everyone, but it sure doesn't feel like GM is winning with it for all kinds of reasons. You were writing earlier about battery prices being ~$100/kWhr now. So a Bolt with it's 65kwhr battery is ~$6500 of the price of the car. I'm guessing that's still more than an ICE engine.

10-09-2021, 03:23 PM	#165
xstuntman Drives: 2012 Victory Red LFX Join Date: Dec 2012 Location: west central Texas Posts: 1,310	I have yet to see any charging stations here. I have yet to read about any upgrades to the grid here to handle the huge amount of home charging too. We are all gonna be driving around with a copper hook to catch a lightning bolt like Back To The Future 2. __________________ 2018 SS wheels, red Heritage grille, actual driving lights, ZL1 strut tower brace, GM Performance billet aluminum fuel door, front grille Bowtie delete, painted red rotors and calipers, 1/4 window American Flags, splash guards, AEM dry panel air filter.

10-13-2021, 02:43 PM	#166
Hops Drives: 2019 1ss 1le, blue wrap Join Date: Aug 2017 Location: Maryland Posts: 633	I have zero interest in SUV's. I just can't stand them. (although we have one for the happy wife cause) Why is it that when i research new EV's, they almost all SUV's or $1million+ supercars?