Electric Vehicles

[Wyzz Kydd]

To me it always comes back to the market.

There's a parable about a dog food company called the "no-good dog food company".

Basically the story is that the company spends a bunch of money on research and advertising and so on, but their dog food doesn't sell. They're worried about why, and asking lots of questions and soul searching when one guy points out:

"Dogs don't like it."

If a product is crap, consumers aren't going to buy it...as long as they have a choice.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by jamala00

Reality...!

Dr. W. Edwards Deming once said “In God we trust, all others must bring data”. So here’s the data.

Counting vehicles on a lot and looking at stickers is not exactly top notch market research. You’d have to know how long the vehicles have been on the lot, were the vehicles spec ordered by the dealership for their inventory or pushed by the OEM to manage factory line rates. He talked about the $80k Lightning. He didn’t bother to mention that it had to be heavily optioned to get to that price, so the casual listener would think “Ford thinks the can get $80k for Lightning”. The actual base price for Lightning is significantly less. So how did this one get to $80k? Is Ford only building $80k trim levels ala GM with Hummer? Or did a customer order it and hasn’t picked it up yet? Or did the dealer spec it that way thinking “just maybe…”? We don’t know. Neither does video guy.

We run statistics on sales and inventory the 1st of every month, so this chart that I made is fresh data. When I look at Mach E, their sales for 2023 are right on par with sales for 2022, so no drop off in sales as the video guy suggests. So why the higher than average days inventory? I’d say it is more of a screw up on Ford manufacturing planning than it is any drop in interest from buyers. They are still selling at the same rates this year as last. And in terms number of sales, they are right on par with other EV utilities. Selling better than everything except Ioniq 5 in the month of October. Better than Ioniq 5 and all the others for the year.

For Lightning, it’s hard to say on sales and inventory because Ford does not break out Lightning separate from other F150. But their F150 days in inventory is not out of line with other brands. As for the pricing of Lightning? Lightning starts at $49,995 for Pro and can be optioned up to $95,335 for Platinum.

F150 starts at $33,835 and can be optioned up to $86,795 for a Limited with all the options. Probably more for a Raptor, but I didn’t go there.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by jamala00

Quote: "New car inventory on dealer lots is sitting at about a 54 days' supply, according to Cox Automotive. But for electric vehicles, that number is almost two times as much, with 92.2 days' supply at dealerships — up 343% from a year ago." (Even your data backs that up)

There's an oversupply of EVs versus gas cars at dealerships

Why would anyone say anything if ICE vehicles were piling up on lots? Nobody is on any forums that I'm aware of preaching to anyone that Chargers or Challengers are the next "big thing". They are coming "like it or not".

For one EV. And that car is selling the same amount year over year. Sales are not dropping, but inventory is building. Have to wonder what Ford is doing there.

[Capricio]

I'm starting to get the sense that "nobody did the math first" on the minerals supply chain and sustainment for all the OEMs combined EV production goals. Namely,copper, graphite, cobalt, and lithium. Seems like that could have been easily anticipated while our altruistic leaders were forcing regulations for unrealistic zero-carbon goals (for our own good) while allegedly trying to save consumers money with affordable EVs.


Am I missing something?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Capricio

I'm starting to get the sense that "nobody did the math first" on the minerals supply chain and sustainment for all the OEMs combined EV production goals. Namely,copper, graphite, cobalt, and lithium. Seems like that could have been easily anticipated while our altruistic leaders were forcing regulations for unrealistic zero-carbon goals (for our own good) while allegedly trying to save consumers money with affordable EVs.


Am I missing something?

You are not missing anything. If the current state of battery tech and the materials involved were frozen where they are now there would be shortage somewhere. But there’s a lot of smart people working on continual development and improving efficiency of the mineral content. It’s sorta like in the 70s when catalytic converters were introduced. The amount of precious metals in them was unsustainable. Over time automakers shared research on ways to decrease the amount of precious metals. Over time 95% of precious metal content was engineered out of the converters to get them to the level of efficiency they are at today. Similar efforts will be needed for battery content and rare earth metals. That plus healthy remanufacturing and recycling industries, both of which are in progress right now.

[genxer]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

He talked about the $80k Lightning. He didn’t bother to mention that it had to be heavily optioned to get to that price, so the casual listener would think “Ford thinks the can get $80k for Lightning”. The actual base price for Lightning is significantly less. So how did this one get to $80k? Is Ford only building $80k trim levels ala GM with Hummer? Or did a customer order it and hasn’t picked it up yet? Or did the dealer spec it that way thinking “just maybe…”? We don’t know. Neither does video guy.

We run statistics on sales and inventory the 1st of every month, so this chart that I made is fresh data. When I look at Mach E, their sales for 2023 are right on par with sales for 2022, so no drop off in sales as the video guy suggests. So why the higher than average days inventory? I’d say it is more of a screw up on Ford manufacturing planning than it is any drop in interest from buyers. They are still selling at the same rates this year as last. And in terms number of sales, they are right on par with other EV utilities. Selling better than everything except Ioniq 5 in the month of October. Better than Ioniq 5 and all the others for the year.

For Lightning, it’s hard to say on sales and inventory because Ford does not break out Lightning separate from other F150. But their F150 days in inventory is not out of line with other brands. As for the pricing of Lightning? Lightning starts at $49,995 for Pro and can be optioned up to $95,335 for Platinum.

F150 starts at $33,835 and can be optioned up to $86,795 for a Limited with all the options. Probably more for a Raptor, but I didn’t go there.

I recall reading EV interest was higher for people with long commutes - high routine mileage. That's probably a segment of people crunching the $ per mile number, and weighing the value of the left side of your range bar graph.

I also recall Ford saying they built too many lower range Mach-Es. If range anxiety hurts them, that explains no smaller pack Equinox EV from gm. And it means Mach-E discounts to sway people that would just get a Bolt type of car.

My logic from there is it's stupid to sell the Lightning as a high trim truck when it's the lower range choice.

It's overlap to have the Sierra EV when the Hummer is there. And it's dumb to sell the Silverado EV in a WT trim because it's a married upper-middle class dad's truck...

[genxer]

Originally Posted by genxer

And it's dumb to sell the Silverado EV in a WT trim because it's a married upper-middle class dad's truck...

...and when the wife divorce$ to move out of State, he trades it in on a gas crewcab and snowmobiling trips for having the kids on weekends.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

You are not missing anything. If the current state of battery tech and the materials involved were frozen where they are now there would be shortage somewhere. But there’s a lot of smart people working on continual development and improving efficiency of the mineral content. It’s sorta like in the 70s when catalytic converters were introduced. The amount of precious metals in them was unsustainable. Over time automakers shared research on ways to decrease the amount of precious metals. Over time 95% of precious metal content was engineered out of the converters to get them to the level of efficiency they are at today. Similar efforts will be needed for battery content and rare earth metals. That plus healthy remanufacturing and recycling industries, both of which are in progress right now.

Recycling will have a negligible impact for at least a decade if not longer regardless of technological advances.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by jamala00

The problem is, your post is the exact reason I said what I said... I said... and I quote...

"I don't understand why Pro EV guys sit on a ICE muscle car forum and try to convince non EV buyers why their thoughts/beliefs are misplaced/misguided. Why not just go on EV forums and talk with like minded people about your EV?"

I told you, Im on this forum as I own a Camaro.
Im on this thread as I thought some actual, real life experience of EV ownership might counterbalance the inaccuracies being posted, I probably should have realised I was wasting my time when people started arguing with actual sales figures

What I didnt expect is people actually believe they "dont need to try an EV to know they suck", dont consider cheaper, cleaner fuel as a good thing or just cant accept the rest of the world is moving forward with this even if you, on a personal or national level, arent.

Maybe youre right and the USA just isnt ever going to get the EV thing. Maybe the rest of the world will realise our mistake and swap cars for pickup trucks, who knows?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

Recycling will have a negligible impact for at least a decade if not longer regardless of technological advances.

For the most part this is true, but it does need to start now to be impactful when it is needed. The low volume of vehicles sold today and the even lower volume of vehicles / batteries being scrapped within the next 10 years means volume of material from that channel for recycling will be low. In the meantime recyclers can be and are interacting with battery manufacturers to obtain process waste to “prime the pump” for recycling.

The reason I say “for the most part” is because recycling and remanufacturing processes have already been in place for years to support post warranty needs for hybrid vehicles, so the processes have already been proven. But the volume of recyclable and remanufacturable material won’t reach full operating scale until high volume EVs built in the 2025 - 30 timeframe start to have post warranty needs.

[Wyzz Kydd]

LOL. Someone got their little feelings hurt and complained? Typical.

[mlee]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

LOL. Someone got their little feelings hurt and complained? Typical.

Not one single person complained...

If folks in this thread can't at least post respectfully toward others who may have different views, you will be gone.

Carry on...

[1JEWLDSSRS]

Originally Posted by mlee

Not one single person complained...

If folks in this thread can't at least post respectfully toward others who may have different views, you will be gone.

Carry on...

Awesome mlee!! Nicely said. Cheers sir! Thanks..

[el ess A]

I still think it's starting to reach a saturation level on sales from the early adopters. And that's part of the sales "slump" or slowdown or whatever you want to call it. Everyone tries to "project" sales based on previous sales and intended demand based on useless-after-one-day surveys of people that may be interested in purchasing. People don't tend to flock to something if they still have looming questions that seemingly go unanswered.

And at least some EV marketing doesn't answer those questions. Or doesn't want to. A very affluent, but miserly, neighbor lady went to look at an EV because she's moving into town to be closer to relatives and she wouldn't have to travel far. She's getting up there in age, so she was considering buying an EV because the dealership said she could save all sorts of money on gas. Her reasoning is her golf cart was electric and she loved the fact she didn't have to buy gas for it. The dealership told her about all the great things of owning an EV. Yet when I asked her about her new garage and if it was set up for an EV charger or at least capable, she said they never mentioned that. After I explained to her that it might cost her $2K-up to install one, she asked me how much gas would that buy for her current car. Can't say the EV dealer lied to her, but obviously didn't tell her things she would need to know/do to make the switch. The holding back of information is the same as not telling the whole truth.

Even with incentives, there's a huge trust factor or even fear factor depending on your glass half full/empty point of view that hasn't been addressed/satisfied for many people to feel comfortable with switching to an EV. And when headlines in the media say the big 3 is waffling a little on EV production, most don't look past the headlines which solidifies a mistrust even further.

There's the dismal economy in general, material shortages, labor shortages, strike hangover, and lots of other obstacles that just compounds the issues. I ponder that it's not so much a glut of EVs sitting on lots, but rather the opposite- hardly anything is on the lots. Can't test drive one, it's already sold before it left the factory. At least around here that is the case. It almost makes you suspect if there IS a car or truck still sitting on the lot not being sold.