Electric Vehicles

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Windycity

Most power companies are regulated in the us and simply can’t raise the kilowatt price at will whenever they feel like it


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They also can't upgrade their power generation capacity or transmission infrastructure without additional funding. Do the math on the power required to displace every ICE car with an EV, charging mostly concurrently in the evening. Also, remember you'll have to have only "renewable", expensive sources, for any new power generation. I suppose we can always regulate our way to prosperity with price controls, that always works out well.

Enjoy your early adopter low KWH rates, the fruits of the (thin) margins of a straining mostly coalfire and nuclear power grid, while you can.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=3a1b451a1bd9

[el ess A]

Originally Posted by Windycity

Most power companies are regulated in the us and simply can’t raise the kilowatt price at will whenever they feel like it

Average prices across the U.S. are about 16 cents/kwh for residential at the moment. Outliers are Wyoming around 8.5 cents/kwh to Hawaii which is almost 5 times that due to generation costs. Still kind of cheap on average- for the time being. YMMV in your local area.

How MUCH more electricity will you use charging up that big ol' battery in your car? And it's not that oh, it's now only 20% of what an ICE costs to fill up. For the moment anyway, how much is saved on insurance costs ICE over EV, and other administrative/registration costs in some states that are "penalizing" EVs for simply existing because of their gas tax set ups. The costs are going to offset somewhere. Money is still shifting as they go through EV growing pains.

Costs for the company to generate electricity is actually pretty reasonable. Sure, big money is spent on operations and maintenance, but it's a drop in the bucket as to what value comes out those massive transformers and sent to the grid. When I used to work at a nuclear power plant back in the 90s, according to the bean counters, we NETTED over $1M per 24 hours in power generation. You could hear the rice krispies snapping and popping as it ionized the air surrounding the lines as it left the plant. "Ahh, the sound of money."

Regulation isn't going to stop the rate hikes when it's the electric cartels calling the shots. In a nutshell, it's rather easy. Raise rates or endure future brown/blackouts. Costs for running the units are going up, so most of that's getting passed on through rate hikes to maintain profit margins. And anymore, it's not just one company always owning everything. One runs generation, another might run distribution, and yet another with the transmission, or various ownership scenarios with all 3. And all three may not be regulated equally, depending on the state. When things go sideways, they get to point fingers elsewhere, I suppose.

What were your power rates 5 years ago? Higher than they are today? I doubt it. When demand pressures mount for whatever reason, whether it's weather, catastrophes, or other factors, they'll come hat in hand and ask for their cost of doing business hikes, and get it. And more often. Nickel and diming the customers.

Time will decide if I'm blowing smoke, but knowing how the electric companies work, at least on the generation end, I don't think I am. Just like the post office and their rate hikes. Small, but more often. It adds up. That fallacy of costs having to remain low because it's regulated is about to be tested. At this point we don't know how much it will rise due to the increased demand, but the fact it will rise is not even a question.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by jamala00

No pro EV person ever wants to talk about what the charges will be to charge your EV at home or on the road "if/when" EV's become the main auto source. All they ever want to do is say... "I can charge my EV 10x's cheaper now".

From 2012 - 2023 we’ve had a Chevrolet Volt plugging into a 220V charger in our garage on a separate meter, so I know EXACTLY how much we pay. Never crossed $40/month. When I rented a Model Y in Atlanta and charged it at a mall, it cost $11.24 to charge from 55% charge to 90% charge.

Originally Posted by jamala00

If it happens... once that tipping point of EVs to ICE happen and the tax revenue drops because people are not buying gas... Your charges to add those electrons into your EV battery are going to skyrocket. Right now, there are still enough people buying gas and feeding the state/fed taxes.... The fed or state are not just going to wash their hands of all the tax revenue.

It's no different then what the cable companies and streaming services did.

Before everyone got their TV and Internet service from the cable company. Then streaming services came along. Once the streaming services caught on, they jacked the prices of their services. Once the cable companies lost enough cable subscribers they jacked the price of their internet service. It's the same thing. If the state and fed lose tax revenue from enough people buying EVs, they will make up the revenue in other ways.

States are already looking at alternative methods to replace gasoline road tax. Most are leaning towards some combination of higher vehicle registration fees for EVs, higher registration fees for all vehicles, taxes based on vehicle miles travelled, and toll roads. Have yet to hear any of them suggest increase in electricity rates. Makes sense, because increases in electricity rates do not go to the state coffers. They go to the utility. And in most states, the utility rate increases are managed by a rate commission.

Should also note, according to my contacts at DTE the additional electricity used by an EV over the course of a year is about equivalent to the amount of electricity used annually by an additional freezer. My separate meter for my Volt pretty much bears that out. The difference is, the freezer is using a low amount of electricity all of the time, whereas the car takes its energy in big gulps. So the issue is managing to not have all the cars taking their big gulps at the same time or to have them do that during off-peak hours. Keep in mind that since most people can plug in everyday, it’s not the size of the battery that counts, it’s how much they consume in the course of a day. If a 200kWh Hummer EV only drove about 50 miles in the course of the day, it’s only replenishing about 25kWh.

[CalgaryZL1]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H6_qAta3Gk8

Who needs lithium when you have water? I have never figured out this thought process with going electric and the process to do it

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

Time out, time out!!!

So we were told the international and especially Chinese markets/govts were driving the EV push when deciding which tail is wagging the dog here. I present these links:

https://gmauthority.com/blog/2023/10...llion-revenue/

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/24/gene...s-q3-2023.html

Q3 2023 earnings
"GM’s North American adjusted earnings were off 9.5% during the third quarter from a year earlier to $3.53 billion. Its international operations increased earnings by roughly 7% to $357 million, while its equity income from operations in China were down year over year by about 42% to $192 million."

So:
North America = $3.53 BILLION
China = $192 million
Rest of international (including Europe and every other region not listed above) = $357 million

Jim and anyone else. Am I reading this right? The market making gm only $192 MILLION this past quarter is forcing worldwide change while the market that made $3.53 BILLION is getting pushed around?

I’m only responding to this because you specifically called me out. You’re conflating “GM China” with “China”. China as a whole is transitioning to EV fast, so the entire auto market in China will soon be 50/50 EV and then majority EV. GM’s piece of that is relatively small. BYD, Tesla, Great Wall, and a multitude of Chinese EV manufacturers are leading the market. GM China is competitive in the market, not leading.

[shaffe]

https://www.autoblog.com/2023/10/26/...ren-t-working/

An interesting read as some Execs admit they will need to pull back on their EV goals as customer demand isn't there

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

But gm as a company. Their piece of the Chinese auto market profits is ~5% of what their NA market profit is. It seems ludicrous to me to try to force/abandon the larger market to go after the smaller one. Not only would Chinese total sales need to increase a ton, gm's market share would need to increase a ton. It makes no sense to alienate their core customers here for this.

That’s not what they are doing.

• China is the world’s largest market for selling vehicles.
• Manufacturers who want to compete in China will need to sell EV.
• Europe is the second largest market for vehicle sales.
• Due to strict regulation, Europe is shifting from ICE to EV.
• Manufacturers who want to sell vehicles in Europe will need to have EV in their portfolio.
• So far GM isn’t really impacted directly since they don’t sell much in Europe.
• GM is impacted in China because they do have a substantial operation in China.
• Companies who operate GLOBALLY see the shifts to EV in the two major markets and focus on making EVs.
• Those companies strategize to transition their portfolios to EV. Nothing stops them from selling the same EVs they develop for China and Europe in the US.
• In parallel, Tesla has a head start on everyone in developing and selling EVs in US
• In parallel automakers are among many other Fortune 500 companies who align with the Paris Accord findings on climate change.
• Automakers from all major manufacturing regions (Detroit 3, German 3, Asian 4, other smaller OEMs) publicly commit to timing for Carbon Neutrality
• GM is among the first to declare Carbon Neutral targets and intent to produce only zero emissions passenger vehicles (commercial vehicles are still indeterminant)

That’s how we arrived at where we are today and where we’re headed over the next 20 years or so.

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

I mean, looking at these numbers too, gm's profit margin is even down from the NA market, so more work for less money there in China, ALSO. They made what, about 9.6% profit margin in NA and only about 2.7% in China?


This seems like HORRIBLE business to me.


Again, all this still assumes everything will go on peachy in China, where we know, either a war with the US, seizures of foreign assets and FOR SURE population and economic collapse is coming to China like we've never seen in history (their demographics alone demand this).

Can’t make long term decisions over short term profitability numbers. There were years where GM was profitable only because of GM do Brasil. That surely didn’t mean that GM should have patterned the rest of the company’s product mix after what was selling in Brazil. Similar for GM China at one point and GM Europe at other points. Financial results for a quarter are never the basis for long term strategy or investment.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

[*]China is the world’s largest market for selling vehicles.
[*]Manufacturers who want to compete in China will need to sell EV.

China will never allow a US automaker to be a major player in their market.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BuckeyeROC

Nah, I get it man. The bolded above is really ALL that matters. They are all owned by the same folks. Wait until you guys see the changes coming to the real estate industry, including your PERSONAL residences, lol. Not to mention everything else from the food industry, your personal banking, all the way down to even who can sell what on Amazon.

You DO get it.

[chevy pilot]

Our cheapest EV is 21000$ Citroën Ë-C3.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by chevy pilot

Our cheapest EV is 21000$ Citroën Ë-C3.

https://www.citroen.in/new-ec3

Maximum range is '200 miles' ('right' in my best Bill Cosby voice) and a 'fast' charge takes an hour. Top speed is 67 mph and it can run a blazing 0-38 mph in only 6.8 seconds!

Your EV future!

It's a 'steal'!!

[docwra]

Originally Posted by DevilsReject97

First, good luck finding chargers as easily as a gas station. Secondly, charging in many places is almost as expensive as gas stations in some regard. Thirdly, trying to have an EV and not own a home is unpractical realistically. Last, but not least, aside from Rivian and Tesla, I've yet to see a decent sized EV worth a crap.

I'm 6'3" and due to my shoe size, I'm roughly 6'8" sitting in a car. Trying to sit in these tin can EV cars is a no go...

Ill keep saying it ....... Im in Europe, I reckon we are about 5 years ahead of the US with this.
In the UK there are 30K public charging sites against 9K gas stations. Charging my Audi E-tron (a little smaller than a Q7, if you dont fit in that maybe you need to consider monster trucks) at a public charger is still only about half what it would cost in gas.
All new buildings are required to have car chargers installed, and apart from the fact our power rates are set by government, whats going to happen to gas prices as there are less and less ICE vehicles on the road?

In 5 years time when youve got all that, batteries are giving 1000 miles+ range and it takes <10 minutes to fill up will your opinion be different?

[jamala00]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

https://www.citroen.in/new-ec3

Maximum range is '200 miles' ('right' in my best Bill Cosby voice) and a 'fast' charge takes an hour. Top speed is 67 mph and it can run a blazing 0-38 mph in only 6.8 seconds!

Your EV future!

It's a 'steal'!!

I have to laugh... We just hired a new CIO here. He drives a EV BMW. He has a round trip from his place to the office here of 170 miles. He is trying to get the company here to put in an EV charger because he said in the winter there is no way he will make it round trip... LOL... Ya, where do I sign up for one of these EVs... Can only imagine how much he paid for an EV BMW also that won't allow him to make a 170 round trip in the winter. {SMDH}

[jamala00]

Originally Posted by docwra

In 5 years time when you've got all that, batteries are giving 1000 miles+ range and it takes <10 minutes to fill up will your opinion be different?

I need to mark this post and come back to it in 5 years.

Even if that was true (which is very doubtful) Why would anyone buy an EV today if that was going to be the case in just 5 years. Why wouldn't you just wait?