FenwickHockey65's Great Thread of GM Knowledge

[KMPrenger]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I’ll be at the Consumer Electronics Show for the reveal of Ram’s EV Pickup.

I don't want to de-rail this fantastic thread, but I'm actually pretty curious to see what RAM has cooked up for their EV truck.

Sure, they are late to the game, but it's been more or less "confirmed" that it will have some sort of a range extender, or maybe it will as an option. Maybe a small gas engine (aka Volt anyone??) that would power the battery to make range anxiety either much less or non-existent.

This, in my opinion, is the way forward.

We don't need huge humongous batteries just so we can get 400+ miles on a single charge. What would actually be more practical in my opinion, is something like the Volt, except with a bit more electric range, but still an available ICE engine so that range worries are not a problem. With this setup, most people could commute to work day and day out on pure electric. Want to go on a trip? Well then you use gas.

[Wyzz Kydd]

A hybrid like the E-Ray would be my preference but I don’t think we’re going to be allowed to have those for long. They make too much sense.

[lbls1]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Dead? No. Life support? Pretty much. This is a chart we included in a study recently. Sedans have dropped from 43% of the market in 2000 to a projection of 14% in 2030 with continued decline forecast after that. In contrast, pickups have maintained a steady 19 - 20% of market. Most of that controlled by 3 brands, whereas sedans are split out by more than a dozen brands. Smaller pie, smaller slices for all involved. The yellow bar at the very top is where Camaro / Mustang / Supra / Z et cetera live. Just look at what's happened there since 2016 (launch of Camaro 6) to today (2022). I outlined it in red.

I'm not sure where this chart was generated from, but do yourself a favor; Visit any Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, or Acura dealer. Accord and Civics are flying out of their showroom doors. No problem. Toyota is still selling 200,000 or more units of Camry without a glitch. It begs the question: Why is GM stumbling over themselves with their difficulty in marketing a sedan when you have several makers that are selling them at such a high rate?

However, I do concur with the pickup/traditional SUV lines. It is undeniably GM's bread and butter products, in the face of their current crossover and hybrid entries. I would suggest, though, that the company should not rest on their laurels. GM has healthy competition in the pick-up and large SUV lines. The point is; GM is giving away market share by not (trying to) compete in the sedan market. It was a market that they once thrived on. Now, they appear to be dumbfounded in how to approach this market.

Even with the Camaro line, their closest competitor is thriving on sales of Mustang, with a new model and dedication to ICE still intact. Again the question is begged; What is the problem GM?

What logic says to me is to get away a little bit from the bar graphs and do some real life analysis of one's competitors. GM could be startled by what they may discover. Ramp up and look for ingenious methods of advertising; do more effective planning for mid year changes to keep a model current. If GM continues their past tendency to abandon models instead of fixing its market appeal, then they can expect continued failure of their product lines.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by lbls1

I'm not sure where this chart was generated from, but do yourself a favor; Visit any Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, or Acura dealer. Accord and Civics are flying out of their showroom doors. No problem. Toyota is still selling 200,000 or more units of Camry without a glitch. It begs the question: Why is GM stumbling over themselves with their difficulty in marketing a sedan when you have several makers that are selling them at such a high rate?

However, I do concur with the pickup/traditional SUV lines. It is undeniably GM's bread and butter products, in the face of their current crossover and hybrid entries. I would suggest, though, that the company should not rest on their laurels. GM has healthy competition in the pick-up and large SUV lines. The point is; GM is giving away market share by not (trying to) compete in the sedan market. It was a market that they once thrived on. Now, they appear to be dumbfounded in how to approach this market.

Even with the Camaro line, their closest competitor is thriving on sales of Mustang, with a new model and dedication to ICE still intact. Again the question is begged; What is the problem GM?

What logic says to me is to get away a little bit from the bar graphs and do some real life analysis of one's competitors. GM could be startled by what they may discover. Ramp up and look for ingenious methods of advertising; do more effective planning for mid year changes to keep a model current. If GM continues their past tendency to abandon models instead of fixing its market appeal, then they can expect continued failure of their product lines.

The part in bold… IHS Markit has been the auto industry leader in forecasting sales and production of vehicles, powertrains, and components for decades. S&P Global acquired IHS Markit in March 2022. The chart was created last week by S&P Global consultants who work for me using the latest light vehicle sales forecast data available. Same data that all the automakers currently purchase from S&P Global. It was prepared for an auto company that we are all familiar with but for confidentiality reasons I cannot disclose.

The part in blue… That’s part of what my job was my last 10 years at GM when I led the Powertrain Competitor & Industry Intelligence team before I retired and went into consulting. Consulting is what I do now for multiple OEMs and suppliers in my current position at S&P Global. When I did this at GM, much of the data I used came from IHS Markit (which is now part of S&P Global). Now I’m on the other side of the table, providing the information instead of buying it. And I still do similar work, but for pretty much every OEM, not just GM and I have the data at my fingertips. The chart I provided takes up about half a page in a 100+ page competitor analysis for my client. Most of the document is detailed analysis on vehicles that do or will compete with the vehicles they plan to produce.

[Wyzz Kydd]

I agree. Toyota and Honda have no problem selling sedans. Until Covid and the crazy prices the last few years their annual sales have been pretty stable other than some natural variability that I attribute to gas price changes. When gas is high those two cars tend to do well and when prices fall there’s a shift towards bigger less fuel efficient vehicles.

GMs problem is they don’t manufacture sedans people want to buy. They just don’t want to admit nobody wants their sedans.

[FenwickHockey65]

Originally Posted by lbls1

I'm not sure where this chart was generated from, but do yourself a favor; Visit any Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, or Acura dealer. Accord and Civics are flying out of their showroom doors. No problem. Toyota is still selling 200,000 or more units of Camry without a glitch.

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

I agree. Toyota and Honda have no problem selling sedans. Until Covid and the crazy prices the last few years their annual sales have been pretty stable other than some natural variability that I attribute to gas price changes. When gas is high those two cars tend to do well and when prices fall there’s a shift towards bigger less fuel efficient vehicles.

GMs problem is they don’t manufacture sedans people want to buy. They just don’t want to admit nobody wants their sedans.

Camry and Accord sales are down 16% and 30% YTD through Q3 respectively. Sonata is down 56%. The only two midsize sedans to post gains were Malibu and Altima and both had terrible 2021 sales, likely due to production issues. I'd also wager a good chunk of these sales are going to fleet.



The market isn't there anymore. I support GM keeping Malibu in production and building a production FNR-XE, but let's not pretend the sedan market in the US is still healthy by any means.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by FenwickHockey65

Camry and Accord sales are down 16% and 30% YTD through Q3 respectively. Sonata is down 56%. The only two midsize sedans to post gains were Malibu and Altima and both had terrible 2021 sales, likely due to production issues. I'd also wager a good chunk of these sales are going to fleet.



The market isn't there anymore. I support GM keeping Malibu in production and building a production FNR-XE, but let's not pretend the sedan market in the US is still healthy by any means.

Have you looked at the price of new vehicles lately? That coupled with chip shortages and other production issues, plus a huge drop in consumer confidence are big factors.

Total annual light vehicle sales are down across the board, not just sedans.

2018 17,224,900
2019 16,961,000 -1.5%
2020 14,471,000 -15.98%
2021 14,926,900 -13.34%

Looks like all vehicle sales are down from the 2018 peak.

F150 annual sales

2018 909,330
2019 896,526 -1.4%
2020 787,422 -13.4%
2021 726,004 -20.2%

F150 sales are down farther than the sedan figures you quoted. Not to be argumentative, but I believe sedans aren’t the problem.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by FenwickHockey65

Camry and Accord sales are down 16% and 30% YTD through Q3 respectively. Sonata is down 56%. The only two midsize sedans to post gains were Malibu and Altima and both had terrible 2021 sales, likely due to production issues. I'd also wager a good chunk of these sales are going to fleet.



The market isn't there anymore. I support GM keeping Malibu in production and building a production FNR-XE, but let's not pretend the sedan market in the US is still healthy by any means.

Have you looked at the price of new vehicles lately? Interest rates? That coupled with chip shortages and other production issues, plus a huge drop in consumer confidence are big factors.

Total annual light vehicle sales are down across the board, not just sedans.

2018 17,224,900
2019 16,961,000 -1.5%
2020 14,471,000 -15.98%
2021 14,926,900 -13.34%

Looks like all vehicle sales are down from the 2018 peak.

F150 annual sales

2018 909,330
2019 896,526 -1.4%
2020 787,422 -13.4%
2021 726,004 -20.2%

Not to be argumentative, but I believe sedans aren’t the problem. When people think the economy is in serious trouble, and it is, they tend to hold off on big ticket purchases. That impacts people in the middle and lower income brackets most of all. You would expect a bigger drop in sales figures for vehicles targeted at that market and less of an impact on vehicles targeted at upper income buyers.

Porsche sales
2018 57,223
2019 61,568 +7.57%
2020 57,286 -6.95%
2021 69,175 +20.75%

BTW, this isn't a bug in the system, it's a feature. Lower income people are being priced out of the automotive market. I expect that trend to continue.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by FenwickHockey65

Camry and Accord sales are down 16% and 30% YTD through Q3 respectively. Sonata is down 56%. The only two midsize sedans to post gains were Malibu and Altima and both had terrible 2021 sales, likely due to production issues. I'd also wager a good chunk of these sales are going to fleet…….

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

Have you looked at the price of new vehicles lately? That coupled with chip shortages and other production issues, plus a huge drop in consumer confidence are big factors.

Total annual light vehicle sales are down across the board, not just sedans.

2018 17,224,900
2019 16,961,000 -1.5%
2020 14,471,000 -15.98%
2021 14,926,900 -13.34%

Looks like all vehicle sales are down from the 2018 peak.

F150 annual sales

2018 909,330
2019 896,526 -1.4%
2020 787,422 -13.4%
2021 726,004 -20.2%

F150 sales are down farther than the sedan figures you quoted. Not to be argumentative, but I believe sedans aren’t the problem.

You are both correct, but there is a nuance. The difference between what Fenwick says and what Wyzz Kidd says is that if you look pre-pandemic, pre-supply chain fiasco, Camry, Accord, Sonata, sedans in general we’re already seeing double digit year to year decline while F150 was level and CUVs (RAV4, CR-V, Equinox) we’re seeing double digit increase.

So the declines that Fenwick is quoting were declines compared to already reduced sales. Sedan and coupe sales both declined more than the industry average yearly declines that Wyzz Kidd noted.

[90503]

Tesla makes only sedans. I don't think they plan on bailing out of the sedan market.

GM seems to be too eager to pull the plug on anything that isn't a top seller. Better to sell nothing than compete in a less than huge market. Rather than call themselves general motors, perhaps a name change to specific motors would be appropriate. If and when a different segment gains popularity, gm will have nothing to offer.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

Tesla makes only sedans. I don't think they plan on bailing out of the sedan market.

GM seems to be too eager to pull the plug on anything that isn't a top seller. Better to sell nothing than compete in a less than huge market. Rather than call themselves general motors, perhaps a name change to specific motors would be appropriate. If and when a different segment gains popularity, gm will have nothing to offer.

Model X and Model Y are both CUVs. Model Y and Model 3 are far and away their best sellers. A lot of EVs are sedans because the development cycles for them started before sedan volume started to drop off a cliff. Also, sedans are lighter than CUV and SUV, so automakers could claim the best ranges with sedans. Battery technology has advanced a lot and battery cell prices have dropped a lot since the first Model S was launched and automakers are able to achieve 300 mile range in CUV. Almost all EVs coming to market in 2023-24 are CUV, SUV, and Pick-up. I refer you back to the chart I posted a couple days ago. The volume segments for vehicles overall are CUV, SUV, and Pickups.

***EDIT*** I should also point out, the chart I posted on the previous page was all light vehicles. If you isolate on luxury vehicles, the reduction in sales volume for sedans is slower than it is for mainstream vehicles. Tesla Model S and Model 3 are both considered luxury sedans. Sales of luxury sedans and luxury coupes (Corvette would be considered a luxury coupe, as would M4) shows decline year to year, but the rate of decline is not as abrupt as it is for mainstream sedans and coupes.

[90503]

What makes the Model Y a CUV and not a sedan, is practically imperceptible.

It seems a little gimmicky to not call what looks like a sedan something else. To say that sedans are no longer desirable is a little disingenuous if you really think CUVs are that much different.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

What makes the Model Y a CUV and not a sedan, is practically imperceptible.

It seems a little gimmicky to not call what looks like a sedan something else. To say that sedans are no longer desirable is a little disingenuous if you really think CUVs are that much different.

You could say the same for a Hyundai Kona or a Mercedes GLA, yet they are still classified as CUV and they have CUV utility (high roof design, tailgate). This blurring of classification lines jumped the rails when the PT Cruiser and the Chevrolet HHR (both designed by the same guy, btw) were both classified as trucks. But at the end of the day, facts don’t lie. RAV4 outsells Camry and Corolla. By a lot and the gap is growing. CR-V outsells Accord and Civic. By a lot and the gap is growing. They are more clear examples of what a CUV is and they outsell the sedans they share showroom floor with.

[lbls1]

Just to be clear, I am not doubting anyone's facts or statements; I am merely giving a viewpoint as I see it. Statistics tend to be accurate at figures, however it doesn't portray an entire image of a market or a subject of analysis.

It is plain that Crossover vehicles are a trend and are popular currently. Realistically, one cannot deny that there is still a sizeable market for traditional sedans. In addition, market trends can change, sometimes erratically. It is my opinion that it is not business wise to ignore a segment that (while sales wise may be down) still has significant purchasing traffic in it. Camry, Accord and Civic are posting respectable sales numbers, so one can ask why other makers are having difficulty doing the same.