The Future Of Muscle Cars (Electric Muscle Cars, etc.)

[Devstrike]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I thought this myself for a while. But listen to the soundtrack coming out of Detroit, Dearborn, and Auburn Hills. They are all promising BEV volume in excess of what any regulations currently on the books require. And beyond levels that states like California et al are saying for 2035. That doesn’t sound like they’re being forced. It sorta sounds like they are out in front of the legislation.

I am starting to notice it too. Only time will tell if the Gamble will pay off.

[hotlap]

Originally Posted by snizzle

That's exactly the problem. Automakers should be in the business of building what consumers want without intervention. They are being coerced into building EVs, not by market forces. There is no overwhelming public sentiment to build these vehicles. Should we celebrate that?

I saw this poll today that supports your position

Most Americans Don’t Want Electric Cars

Friday, October 01, 2021

Despite all the talk about “green” technology as a way to fight climate change, most Americans don’t think electric vehicles are practical now and don’t expect them to replace gasoline-powered cars soon.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that only 25% of American Adults believe electric cars today are practical for most drivers. Fifty-two percent (52%) think electric cars aren’t practical, while 23% say they’re not sure. That’s not much of an improvement from a 2013 survey that found 19% believed electric cars were practical.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._electric_cars

[Silveradoss573]

Originally Posted by snizzle

That's exactly the problem. Automakers should be in the business of building what consumers want without intervention. They are being coerced into building EVs, not by market forces. There is no overwhelming public sentiment to build these vehicles. Should we celebrate that?

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by hotlap

I saw this poll today that supports your position

The fun part is I read a poll this morning that Americans are ready for EVs. I’d post a link but a subscription to Automotive News would be required to access it. Depending on who, when, and how you ask the questions you can find a poll to support either position.

[90503]

The recent 3rd QTR sales chart shows Camaro outsold the Bolt. Bolt sales were less than the 3rd Qtr last year by 20%.

The demand for EVs is over-hyped. Sure, the manufacturers can plan to make more and more EVs but they won't sell. Anyone who wants one can get a Tesla or a Bolt now, but sales are weak. EV start ups used phony demand and phony pre-sale figures to acquire funding.

EV success relies on tax credit rebates, and the certainty of having no other choice in the coming years with ICE being arbitrarily discontinued.

[BlaqWhole]

The funny thing about polls is that...I never got polled. And there are millions who likewise never got polled. So what they mean is that the majority of the people that they selected for this particular poll were not in favor of it. It does not mean that the majority of "Americans" don't want it.

Also remember, "America" encompasses more than just the United States. So did they really poll ALL of "America" or did they poll a certain number of people who live in the United States??

It is funny how misleading a headline can be when you really examine it.

Even IF the majority of people in the US who they happened to poll are against it...is that population enough to justify these manufacturers NOT switching to EV? Is it a significant amount of people who are against it? And exactly how against it are they? Is it just because they answered a few questions? If things really changed, would they never buy EV and walk everywhere? How much conviction do they have? Will they cave in eventually?

LOL!! Polls mean nothing. At the slightest inconvenicence these people will cave in without second thought. That is how fickle people are. Hell, throw in a $15K bonus to all these diehards and I bet you they'll cave in once their wives start nagging them about how that money can go towards a new roof or new kitchen or their kid's college fund or a retirement fund. LOL!! Or when it becomes obvious that you won't be able to gas these vehicles and they'll just become sitting rust buckets, people will cave.

[BlaqWhole]

Originally Posted by 90503

The recent 3rd QTR sales chart shows Camaro outsold the Bolt. Bolt sales were less than the 3rd Qtr last year by 20%.

The demand for EVs is over-hyped. Sure, the manufacturers can plan to make more and more EVs but they won't sell. Anyone who wants one can get a Tesla or a Bolt now, but sales are weak. EV start ups used phony demand and phony pre-sale figures to acquire funding.

EV success relies on tax credit rebates, and the certainty of having no other choice in the coming years with ICE being arbitrarily discontinued.

Again, the tides will change once the government starts throwing in incentives and tax breaks. They are already offering tax breaks for people to buy EV and have the charging ports added to their homes. People are fickle. At either the slightest inconvenience or the slightest incentive most people will budge. All they'll have to do is keep increasing the price of gas to where none of us can afford it. I already paid $4.50 a gallon a few months ago for premium gas in my motorcycle. It costed me $90 to fill up my Ram truck. I can afford that. Can some dude with a family of 4 and a house and expenses afford that? What about when it shoots up to $5, $6, $7 a gallon? Even IF you can afford it, at what point will people look over the costs and determine that it is not worth it? LOL!! At $6 a gallon a ZL1 will cost over $100 a tank. Half a tank will be over $50. How long will that last? And all for what? That will be one expensive ride. And again, what happens when you can't even get the gas for your vehicle?

And none of this even matters because some states have already banned the sale of gas vehicles by 2035. Other states will follow. And then they'll make it illegal to even operate a gas powered vehicle on public roads. So it doesn't matter what the public thinks or wants. The reality is that the government has already decided and there is no turning back.

[hotlap]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

The fun part is I read a poll this morning that Americans are ready for EVs. I’d post a link but a subscription to Automotive News would be required to access it. Depending on who, when, and how you ask the questions you can find a poll to support either position.

Agreed. In this case the poll asked if people thought BEVs are practical. I can see, and believe, why the majority would say no based on range anxiety.

BEV as a commuter vehicle that gets plugged in every night versus driving the family to the cabin up north or to Florida in the spring. The two later activities are very normal for people in SE Wisconsin ...where I live. Even Chicago people head to northern WI on weekends.

[hotlap]

Originally Posted by BlaqWhole

Again, the tides will change once the government starts throwing in incentives and tax breaks. They are already offering tax breaks for people to buy EV and have the charging ports added to their homes. People are fickle. At either the slightest inconvenience or the slightest incentive most people will budge. All they'll have to do is keep increasing the price of gas to where none of us can afford it. I already paid $4.50 a gallon a few months ago for premium gas in my motorcycle. It costed me $90 to fill up my Ram truck. I can afford that. Can some dude with a family of 4 and a house and expenses afford that? What about when it shoots up to $5, $6, $7 a gallon? Even IF you can afford it, at what point will people look over the costs and determine that it is not worth it? LOL!! At $6 a gallon a ZL1 will cost over $100 a tank. Half a tank will be over $50. How long will that last? And all for what? That will be one expensive ride. And again, what happens when you can't even get the gas for your vehicle?

And none of this even matters because some states have already banned the sale of gas vehicles by 2035. Other states will follow. And then they'll make it illegal to even operate a gas powered vehicle on public roads. So it doesn't matter what the public thinks or wants. The reality is that the government has already decided and there is no turning back.

Could the government starts throwing in incentives and tax breaks for Camaros?

That is the type of market manipulation people are referring to. In 1905, manufactures sold electric, steam and gasoline powered automobiles. The market chose the winner. There are or technologies that are being erased because the government is choosing the winner.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

The recent 3rd QTR sales chart shows Camaro outsold the Bolt. Bolt sales were less than the 3rd Qtr last year by 20%.

The demand for EVs is over-hyped. Sure, the manufacturers can plan to make more and more EVs but they won't sell. Anyone who wants one can get a Tesla or a Bolt now, but sales are weak. EV start ups used phony demand and phony pre-sale figures to acquire funding.

EV success relies on tax credit rebates, and the certainty of having no other choice in the coming years with ICE being arbitrarily discontinued.

I'm guessing that you already know that Bolt sales were suspended while GM worked through finding a fix for the battery fire issue, right? Between that and semi-conductor shortages, Bolt hasn't been produced at anywhere near the target production volumes. Hard to sell what you don't produce. The plant is just now re-opening to a backlog of orders. Best to compare them when they are both unencumbered.

I expect some may say "Battery Fires!!! That's why there shouldn't be electric vehicles!" During the same time that GM was recalling Bolts and telling people to not park them in their garages, Hyundai recalled over 390,000 vehicles due to engine fires. There were actually more engine fires than there were fires from Bolt EV batteries. So if Bolt proves there should not be battery electrics because of fires, maybe Hyundai proves that there shouldn't be ICE. Or maybe we should figure that both are anomalies with explainable and fixable root causes and don't extend across the board to every vehicle of that type.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by BlaqWhole

Again, the tides will change once the government starts throwing in incentives and tax breaks. They are already offering tax breaks for people to buy EV and have the charging ports added to their homes. People are fickle. At either the slightest inconvenience or the slightest incentive most people will budge. All they'll have to do is keep increasing the price of gas to where none of us can afford it. I already paid $4.50 a gallon a few months ago for premium gas in my motorcycle. It costed me $90 to fill up my Ram truck. I can afford that. Can some dude with a family of 4 and a house and expenses afford that? What about when it shoots up to $5, $6, $7 a gallon? Even IF you can afford it, at what point will people look over the costs and determine that it is not worth it? LOL!! At $6 a gallon a ZL1 will cost over $100 a tank. Half a tank will be over $50. How long will that last? And all for what? That will be one expensive ride. And again, what happens when you can't even get the gas for your vehicle?

And none of this even matters because some states have already banned the sale of gas vehicles by 2035. Other states will follow. And then they'll make it illegal to even operate a gas powered vehicle on public roads. So it doesn't matter what the public thinks or wants. The reality is that the government has already decided and there is no turning back.

Just to be clear, several states have had Executive Orders issued from the Governor's office. The way state and federal government works is the Executive Branch (Governor, President) does not make laws. They can direct the legislature to draft legislation, but the legislation still has to be voted on in the respective legislatures (Congress, state legislatures). So, bottom line, none of the 2035 stuff is enforceable law. Period.

Now, here's the fun part. Car companies are operating AHEAD of where the proposed bans are headed. GM, Ford, Stellantis, VW, BMW, Mercedes, Honda, even McLaren are all positioning to be 100% electrified by 2035. Electrified and electric do not mean the same thing. Sorta like squares and rectangles. All squares are rectangles, but not all rectangles are squares. All electric vehicles are electrified, but not all electrified vehicles are electric. Hybrids and plug-in hybrids factor into the equation except for GM. So, ICE vehicles will still be around post 2035, no matter what a dozen or so states choose to do. But most if not all will have some form of electrification included. This is closer to BlaqWhole's carburator / fuel injection scenario. If you want an ICE, you can get one, but it is gonna have a hybrid system included. That's where the manufacturers are headed, and they're headed there no matter what various state governments do.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by hotlap

Agreed. In this case the poll asked if people thought BEVs are practical. I can see, and believe, why the majority would say no based on range anxiety.

BEV as a commuter vehicle that gets plugged in every night versus driving the family to the cabin up north or to Florida in the spring. The two later activities are very normal for people in SE Wisconsin ...where I live. Even Chicago people head to northern WI on weekends.

The poll I was referring to also asked about practicality and the responses were over 65% in favor. Again, where when and who are variables.

As far as the ability to travel beyond the vehicle range, Tesla has already proven that to be a manageable issue. The 500,000 public charging stations the Biden Administration is trying to get installed will go a long way towards managing it for non-Tesla vehicles. Most people who own an electric vehicle will only use public fast chargers on trips that exceed the daily range of their vehicle. Since most new BEVs come to market with a range of 250 - 400 miles (500+ for the Lucid Air) that would be the only time people who own BEVs need public charging. For most people currently considering buying BEVs, there will be an additional vehicle in the household. That's been the case for years, but here's the switch... More and more, polling data indicates that the new BEV will be the PRIMARY vehicle in the household and the ICE vehicle(s) in the household will be for specialty use...like long trips. Actually, my household resembles that remark. My wife has been driving Chevrolet Volt since 2012. Even though the Volt is perfectly capable of making long trips, we've always had an ICE car for making long trips. Her next vehicle will be either a Lyriq or a Mach E. Same rules will apply until we know there are sufficient fast chargers on the routes we plan to take.

I apologize if I come off as a know-it-all on this topic, but I literally spend hours every day in the middle of data and press releases on the topic. The team I run are consultants on all things automotive, and at this moment in time, a good portion of our time is spent consulting on the electrification landscape.

[s346k]

the future of muscle cars will be, by default, the past of muscle cars.

i've been seriously contemplating building my own still for ethanol. i'm sold on that idea, my biggest issue at this point is storage. i don't like the idea, unless i fortified my property and felt comfortable with hundreds of gallons of flammable liquid sitting around.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by hotlap

Could the government starts throwing in incentives and tax breaks for Camaros?

That is the type of market manipulation people are referring to. In 1905, manufactures sold electric, steam and gasoline powered automobiles. The market chose the winner. There are or technologies that are being erased because the government is choosing the winner.

The difference is, 100 years ago the government and the auto industry were not faced with the daunting task of carbon emissions reduction. The government has put carbon reduction far ahead of the wants and likes of a small portion of the auto buying public. Thing is, this time the auto industry not only agrees, they're getting out ahead of where the government wants them to be. So, even though the 2035 Executive Orders are not law, the automakers are not fighting the direction the way they usually do when the government tries to toughen fuel economy standards. They're doing it on their own. They are even working to make their plants carbon neutral and there is no legislation or directive telling them they have to do that.

In the strongest of ironies, as I typed this response, Ford was airing a commercial on their electric future. Think the government is telling them they need to do that? Not a chance.