[Martinjlm]

Very good questions DAC17. This is how I was answering these same questions before I retired from GM....

Originally Posted by DAC17

Couple of other thoughts on the guesstimate that electric vehicles are coming more quickly than people thought.

1. Have the utilities been planning for the additional generation that will be needed? Hundreds of thousands of electric cars will require much additional capacity, and power plants take a long time to build. Don't see much of that going on in New England, anyway. Remember brownouts during peak demand periods. That'll work well with additional demand.

Utilities have been upgrading power generation gradually for decades and have really begun stepping up the pace in the past 10 years. A number of approaches are in place. Most involve getting away from coal. One very interesting approach is to use "expired" electric car lithium ion batteries as long term storage to provide surplus during peak demand. Batteries for electric vehicles are designed to NOT use their entire capacity during their use in-vehicle. Built in safety factor. So when they are no longer suitable for automotive use, they still have approximately half their life left.

In the meantime, electric utility companies have been partnering with manufacturers of electric chargers and with charging delivery network providers to set up networks of fast-chargers, similar to Tesla's SuperCharger network, to accommodate long range electric vehicles in order to facilitate interstate and cross-country travel.

Originally Posted by DAC17

2. What is going to take the place of taxes on gasoline and diesel that keep our roads maintained? I can see each of the 50 states trying to increase the price of fuel or impose a mileage tax or something else. Or not.

This will vary by state and/or locality. Some will go to a graduated value tax. The more you pay for your vehicle, the higher the value tax and/or registration fee will be. Some may consider license plate readers to attribute road use. This is a low probability scenario, since nobody has figured out how to account for out-of-area plates passing through. People don't like "surprise" bills in the mail just because they drove through West Podunk on their way to take grandma to the hospital.

Originally Posted by DAC17

3. How about people that live in cluster housing (apartments, condos, etc.) that won't have access to easy charting. What are they supposed to do?

One of MANY reasons why I keep saying ICE will still be around. For those that can go electric, it will be the most efficient and eventually the best cost scenario. For those who cannot go electric, there will still be very efficient ICE vehicles. My winter car is a 2017 Cruze. It is rated at 42 highway. My last highway trip I actually achieved 46.8 mpg with some 50 mile stretches above 50 mpg. Both of those numbers are better than a 2012 Prius. And the Cruze has no electrification except Stop Start, which does not affect highway mileage. ICE will continue to get better for the ones that remain. And they will remain.

Originally Posted by DAC17

I'm not against electric cars; heck, I own a Volt. But I don't see some of the basic infrastructure thinking going along as quickly as the sales forecasts for these types of cars.

I assume a few people will let me know what I'm missing. Haha.

My last 10 years at GM were focused on understanding where powertrain and electrification technologies are going, what the new technological developments are, who (suppliers and competitors) is doing what, when it will land on the road. I retired to set up my own consulting agency answering those questions for whomever chooses to contract me to do so.

[BahamaTodd]

Keep in mind that the majority of charging will occur over night during non-peak hours. Eventually when charging becomes more prevalent, yes they will have to account for the increased demand.

For places where corded charging is not possible, the auto industry is actively working on establishing stationary wireless charging standards. With wireless data connectivity, it should be possible to park anywhere there is a wireless charging spot, and be automatically billed.

https://www.sae.org/news/3391/

[wavsine]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

Utilities have been upgrading power generation gradually for decades and have really begun stepping up the pace in the past 10 years

I live in DFW and yes we have a nuclear power plant in Glen Rose. We also have numerous natural gas plants that are brought online as needed to supplement demand. In the summer when everybody is running their AC, we are subject to rolling blackouts or brownouts due to excess demand. Utilities beg people to defer use until evening hours. Now imagine if everybody gets home from work and plugs in their EV and turns on their AC.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

One very interesting approach is to use "expired" electric car lithium ion batteries as long term storage to provide surplus during peak demand. Batteries for electric vehicles are designed to NOT use their entire capacity during their use in-vehicle. Built in safety factor. So when they are no longer suitable for automotive use, they still have approximately half their life left.

Think of the logistics of transporting hundreds or thousands of spent battery packs to a utility and consider the rack space that would be required. Also bear in mind that the cutoffs prescribed for lithium ion batteries are there for a reason: safety. Now you would have an entire room/warehouse of marginal battery packs operating outside of their original design parameters. Ever seen a lithium ion fire? Imagine a whole room full of large packs.

More think tank insanity IMHO.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by wavsine

I live in DFW and yes we have a nuclear power plant in Glen Rose. We also have numerous natural gas plants that are brought online as needed to supplement demand. In the summer when everybody is running their AC, we are subject to rolling blackouts or brownouts due to excess demand. Utilities beg people to defer use until evening hours. Now imagine if everybody gets home from work and plugs in their EV and turns on their AC.

It is very easy to regulate how EVs interact with the grid. Most of it is already done today with pricing. Off-peak costs a lot less than on-peak. Today people can set their cars so that when they come home and plug-in, it will not actually start charging until the lower rates kick in. So the answer to your scenario is, not all EVs will be charging at the same time, fewer still during peak hours. Happens today. Will happen in higher volume tomorrow.

If I recall correctly, San Antonio is one of the pilot areas for allowing EV owners to actually SELL power back to the grid during peak hours. So, the idea would be if you have your car plugged in, no trips scheduled, and you have a lot of energy in your battery, you can move it back to the grid in exchange for $$. Then overnight during off-peak, charge at a lower rate than you sold your excess energy. Arizona does this, too.

Originally Posted by wavsine

Think of the logistics of transporting hundreds or thousands of spent battery packs to a utility and consider the rack space that would be required. Also bear in mind that the cutoffs prescribed for lithium ion batteries are there for a reason: safety. Now you would have an entire room/warehouse of marginal battery packs operating outside of their original design parameters. Ever seen a lithium ion fire? Imagine a whole room full of large packs.

More think tank insanity IMHO.

Not think tank at all. It is happening today. And it is growing. First, let's talk about the "safety" of lithium ion batteries. When I mentioned "safety" earlier, I was not talking about people safety. I was talking about the engineering concept of designing in safety factors to ensure capacity and usability. More in the vein of protecting the battery from premature wear. EV batteries are designed over capacity to avoid deep cycling that reduces the useful life of the battery. The Chevrolet Volt battery is 18.1 kWh. It probably only uses about 12 of that.

As far as human safety, the biggest concerns with lithium ion batteries are related to

1. Excessive heat
2. Behaviour when the battery cells are punctured, like in a collision

When batteries are used for energy collection, they are not moving. Likelihood of a puncturing / or collision are as close to zero as you could possibly get. And temperature control of static objects in a secured room is pretty easy these days.

Now, back to safety when the batteries are in a car, moving at high speed, prone to collision and/or puncturing. Lithium ion is a whole lot less flammable than gasoline.

[TunaMelt]

My Home AC uses more electricity than the EV and there was a time when the general public adopted centralized AC. This is no different. The industry will meet demand when the need arises and jobs will be created, lost, and shuffled around. The opposition will be the ones who stand to lose profit and the average skeptic. I'm typing this on a tablet and it's magically showing up on whatever device you guys are using instantly. To see all my neighbors also plugging in a car doesn't seem that crazy.

[Lerch98]

Electric cars are a fiasco.
Imagine when all (or most of) all the cars are electric. The Electricity has to come from some where. The price of electricity will go up...Maybe a buck or more a KW hour (probably dollars/KWHr). People will be complaining about that.
Then just think of all the environmental problems and costs associated with recycling all those batteries. Lithium a a nasty, reactive and a toxic substance. The better the battery, the nastier the chemistry.
People do not realize the first rule of engineering; "There ain't no free lunch"

In a hundred years from now, the History channel will have a show about the demise of the automobile and the electric car will be highlighted. A bad idea in 1905, a stupid idea in 2017.
Everybody will go back to having a horse. Horse #### all over the place, but carbon neutral.

[DAC17]

Martinjim: Great answer; thanks for the thoughtful analysis.

[LuvMI]

Just think, if everyone lines up for an electric Camaro then premium gasoline prices will tank... yay me and my future gen 6 2ss!!

[wavsine]

If a lithium ion pack has 300-500 full discharge cycles or let's say 1000 or more partial discharge cycles, would you really compromise your $15,000 battery pack by draining it back to the grid on a regular basis? What about if you are a single car family and your wife develops a migraine and needs you to go to the store at midnight for medicine? Sorry, you will have to wait while I recharge the car. I sold power back to the grid.

I know I am coming off as being totally against electric power but I am not. I am simply a pragmatist. I have personal experience with both lithium ion and lithium polymer technology. They are dangerous and must be respected.

Ever heard of Horlacher? I was bitten by the electric bug way back in the 80s.

http://www.horlacher.com/products_se...ment/index.htm

[Mr. Meh]

Originally Posted by LuvMI

Just think, if everyone lines up for an electric Camaro then premium gasoline prices will tank... yay me and my future gen 6 2ss!!

Unfortunately, they probably tank to the point of costing more per unit due to significantly decreased sales. Refineries wouldn't keep up with cracking and distillation systems needed to separate and process crude in to this particular set of chemicals.

You'd need to be lucky and have our society need the chemicals on either side of gasoline's C7H16 thru C11H24, which are usually solvents on the shorter end and kerosene on the longer end. Then you'd still have to pay more for their baked in costs of further additives and then storage and delivery on top of any state levied tax and then whatever the local station is dealing with maintaining this old gas pump that's used less and less.