Electric Vehicles

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by snizzle

Even on the topic of EVs, where is the groundswell of support from a consumer perspective (<6% in 2022 sales) that in a theoretical free market would urge automakers to continue. We've discuss ad nauseam the other driving factors. I believe "they" want us to rent these cars and associated features with a recurring revenue model. It's not a one and done purchase anymore. The tech industry is doing this as well which is now tied in via a software defined vehicle concept. Say a pandemic arrives, wouldn't it be nice to lock everyone down and turn off their vehicles OTA (for the "greater good" of course).

Yep. I need to hire a skilled mechanic to disable my OnStar functionality and I'll definitely be keeping the Honda Accord which is old enough not to have any of that stuff.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

If you have driven enough internal combustion-powered vehicles and EVs, you would know that fossil fuel-burning cars have their own character.

This part will not be true going forward

Its not true now, a Taycan feels different from an Audi E-Tron GT and they are effectively the same car, in fact an E-Tron GT drives totally differently from an E-Tron sportback
This is all before you start dicking around with power, regen and chassis settings. Cant see them being used as trackcars anytime soon but theres definitely plenty of variation even now.

[90503]

Originally Posted by GearheadSS

This is a big one that most EV buyers don't think about. Right now, it's cheap top charge your EV but when states and govt can't make money on gas, they're going to start taxing electricity to make up for it. It's going to cost a lot more to charge an EV when that happens.

If I recall, the EV proponents have lobbied against any type of extra costs, taxes, etc., related to EV usage whether it be electricity or road taxes as part of the incentive to go along with the Tax Credits, etc...Perhaps that will all end some day...But for now you are right, it can be cheap/cheaper at home to charge up...How long these "programs" will last is anyone's guess.

I can't imagine electricity being more expensive than So Cal, but just for review and reference here's So Cal Edison's EV web-site and options...Might have some useful info for anyone going EV...

https://www.sce.com/residential/rate...-vehicle-plans

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by snizzle

Even on the topic of EVs, where is the groundswell of support from a consumer perspective (<6% in 2022 sales) that in a theoretical free market would urge automakers to continue. We've discuss ad nauseam the other driving factors. I believe "they" want us to rent these cars and associated features with a recurring revenue model. It's not a one and done purchase anymore. The tech industry is doing this as well which is now tied in via a software defined vehicle concept. Say a pandemic arrives, wouldn't it be nice to lock everyone down and turn off their vehicles OTA (for the "greater good" of course).

It’s only 6% in 2022. Up from just over 3% in 2021, so almost a 100% increase in demand. This is to be expected because availability is not on par with availability of ICE vehicles. But in some of the segments where EV and ICE compete head-to-head, EV more than holds its own. In Luxury Sedan segment, for example, Tesla Model S, 10 year old design and all, outsells new generation BMW and Mercedes sedans, even though it’s priced higher than both of them. And Tesla earns more profit per vehicle sold than either of them.

As EVs extend to more mainstream product segments at lower prices ($30k Chevy Equinox EV coming later this year) similar shifts in demand are expected. S&P Global Mobility forecasts EV will be about 44% new passenger vehicle sales in the US in 2030.

As for the OTA enabling of features, it’s not just an EV thing. It can be and is being done now with ICE vehicles. Even if EVs suddenly ceased to exist, that capability is in place and expanding.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by docwra

Its not true now, a Taycan feels different from an Audi E-Tron GT and they are effectively the same car, in fact an E-Tron GT drives totally differently from an E-Tron sportback
This is all before you start dicking around with power, regen and chassis settings. Cant see them being used as trackcars anytime soon but theres definitely plenty of variation even now.

We finally found something we agree on. Plenty of variation. From pretty bad to pure garbage.

[docwra]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

We finally found something we agree on. Plenty of variation. From pretty bad to pure garbage.

Youve driven all 3 too? Im surprised to hear that, I cant imagine youd make such a sweeping statement without having some experience as that would be stupid.

[Wyzz Kydd]

Originally Posted by docwra

Youve driven all 3 too? Im surprised to hear that, I cant imagine youd make such a sweeping statement without having some experience as that would be stupid.

I'm sure that's a topic with which you're intimately familiar.

[snizzle]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

As for the OTA enabling of features, it’s not just an EV thing. It can be and is being done now with ICE vehicles. Even if EVs suddenly ceased to exist, that capability is in place and expanding.

True, and there are of course pros/cons. I hope automakers are taking security seriously for example. It'll be a continually iterative process that takes time, effort, and money to protect against bad actors. Having an OTA entry point into our autos is wrought with complications even if it's well intentioned (think IoT devices).

[90503]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

I think that rather than taxing across the board for electricity states will have to be more creative. Charging across the board would also increase the rates for residential non-vehicle related electricity. That is already governed by regulatory agencies that limit increases proposed by power utilities. Instead, states are more likely to get revenue to support road maintenance from:

• Vehicle registration fees. A number of states already have higher rates for registering an EV simply because EVs don’t participate in gasoline taxes. Some get around specifically calling out EVs by setting rates on a weight based metric. EVs are going to weigh more than ICE vehicles in the same product classes and therefore pay higher registration fees.
• Establishing a use tax for public chargers. They may even be able to vary the tax based on the charging rate. So people who mostly charge at home will be affected least. Those who have to use public charging would be most impacted.
• More states could follow the lead of California and New York (and others) that require annual mechanical / safety inspections for all vehicles. This “new” revenue could be directed to state road maintenance budgets.

The latest from the Cali legislature....re weight:

The weight/safety rationale for taxation...lol...and its not for just trucks and suvs...How much do those batteries weigh?,,,lol

"The proposed study is expected to examine how much revenue California would generate from a weight fee for passenger cars and what weights would be used as cutoffs for the potential fees."

https://www.sfchronicle.com/californ...s-17771795.php

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by 90503

The latest from the Cali legislature....re weight:

The weight/safety rationale for taxation...lol...and it’s not for just trucks and suvs...How much do those batteries weigh?,,,lol

"The proposed study is expected to examine how much revenue California would generate from a weight fee for passenger cars and what weights would be used as cutoffs for the potential fees."

https://www.sfchronicle.com/californ...s-17771795.php

The link is behind a pay wall, but I should be able to find another source for the same info.

Fun fact(?)… The battery in the Hummer EV weighs roughly the same as a Honda Civic. I haven’t confirmed it, but it was told to me by a GM engineer who is in a position to know.

[90503]

Maybe better luck with this link....

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ca...vs/ar-AA17hFoy

California could start charging drivers more for owning heavy trucks and SUVs
Story by Ricardo Cano

California could consider charging weight-based registration fees for heavier passenger vehicles, such as trucks and SUVs, under a proposal making its way through the state legislature.
A state lawmaker wants to explore charging drivers more in registration fees for owning heavier vehicles such as trucks or SUVs.

Assembly member Chris Ward, a San Diego Democrat, wants the California Transportation Commission to study the costs and benefits of levying a weight fee for heavy cars to pay for street safety improvement projects.



Ward’s bill, AB 251, would require the commission to submit a study to the legislature by the end of 2025. The study would include recommended legislation as well as an “analysis of the relationship between vehicle weight and vulnerable road user injuries and fatalities,” according to the bill’s text.

A vehicle weight fee wouldn’t be imminent if Ward’s bill gets signed by the governor. But the proposed study comes as car manufacturers introduce increasingly heavier truck and SUV models that street safety advocates say imperil efforts to reduce traffic deaths and severe injuries.

“We know there are studies suggesting fatality rates can be higher for crashes involving heavier vehicles –– especially models weighing several thousand pounds,” Ward said in a statement to The Chronicle. “AB 251 will look further into the relationship between vehicle weight and injuries to help inform policy in the future.”

The proposed study is expected to examine how much revenue California would generate from a weight fee for passenger cars and what weights would be used as cutoffs for the potential fees.

Currently, California is among the handful of states that charge registration fees largely based on a vehicle’s value. At least 14 states, including Florida and New York, already charge weight-based vehicle registration fees, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures, though their structures vary.

In Florida, for example, someone registering a truck that weighs between 6,000 and 8,000 pounds must pay $87.75 along with other required fees. New York state charges a weight fee every two years that includes 55 tiers ranging from $26 for cars under 1,650 pounds to $140 for cars that weigh more than 6,951 pounds.

Last year, Washington D.C.’s council approved a weight-based registration fee that takes effect in 2024. D.C. owners of cars that weigh more than 6,000 pounds — the highest weight tier — will have to pay $500 per year in a weight fee, more than triple the cost of current registration fees.

Weight fees could have a broad impact on California car owners. About 1 in 6 cars registered in the state are trucks that could be subject to a weight fee, according to data from the Department of Motor Vehicles.

A recent study by the Insurance Institute of Highway Safety analyzed recent federal crash data and found that drivers of SUVs and pickup trucks were more than three times likely to hit a pedestrian while turning, compared to smaller vehicles.

The federal government is awarding $800 million in grant funds to states and cities for road projects that would reduce traffic fatalities on roads and highways. Some cities have also aggressively pursued street redesigns and policies meant to curtail deaths and injuries on streets. “Yet, at the same time, we’re seeing vehicles get bigger, heavier, faster and more dangerous,” Leah Shahum, executive director of the Vision Zero network said.

A weight fee in California could push other states to follow, Shahum said, adding that federal regulators should impose restrictions on how big and heavy manufacturers design their vehicles.

“While we’re working on one aspect of the problem, we’re really ignoring another really big and important one,” Shahum said. “So, we hope California could take a lead in this and other states follow suit, and that the feds follow suit” with tougher regulations.

[genxer]

There's a security blanket affect for people picking larger size, and higher seats. Full-size trucks make a lot of profit. I thought I read somewhere it's $9k per vehicle on Teslas. States first see a big tax target. They could make up almost any reason to upcharge registrations.

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

It’s only 6% in 2022. Up from just over 3% in 2021, so almost a 100% increase in demand. This is to be expected because availability is not on par with availability of ICE vehicles. But in some of the segments where EV and ICE compete head-to-head, EV more than holds its own. In Luxury Sedan segment, for example, Tesla Model S, 10 year old design and all, outsells new generation BMW and Mercedes sedans, even though it’s priced higher than both of them. And Tesla earns more profit per vehicle sold than either of them.

As EVs extend to more mainstream product segments at lower prices ($30k Chevy Equinox EV coming later this year) similar shifts in demand are expected. S&P Global Mobility forecasts EV will be about 44% new passenger vehicle sales in the US in 2030.

As for the OTA enabling of features, it’s not just an EV thing. It can be and is being done now with ICE vehicles. Even if EVs suddenly ceased to exist, that capability is in place and expanding.

Projected EV demand still seems unrealistic. I'm restating my impression to re-think how segments are sliced. Tesla basically is premium or luxury, just making fastbacks. If you slice that out for all others, EVs play better there.

Buyer psychology has to have some different common points for different segments. Maybe premium/lux fastback buyers are: wowed by the tech or spec sheet; feeling slight lifestyle shame and buy into carbon correlation; wanting seen illuminated by the gas light of establishment's preferred future.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by genxer

There's a security blanket affect for people picking larger size, and higher seats. Full-size trucks make a lot of profit. I thought I read somewhere it's $9k per vehicle on Teslas. States first see a big tax target. They could make up almost any reason to upcharge registrations.

I fail to see the connection between the profit an automaker makes on the vehicle to the registration fee the vehicle owner pays. There is zero correlation. And for what it’s worth, Tesla makes a lot more than $9,000 per vehicle. It’s easily 5 digits and for their most expensive vehicles the first digit is a 2.

Originally Posted by genxer

Projected EV demand still seems unrealistic. I'm restating my impression to re-think how segments are sliced. Tesla basically is premium or luxury, just making fastbacks. If you slice that out for all others, EVs play better there.

Not true at all. Luxury buyers moved from Mercedes S-Class and BMW 7-Series to Tesla Model S in droves. Not because they are hatchbacks, but because they considered it to be a better luxury car regardless of the body style. Whether it truly is better is very subjective, so even if you personally think it’s a piece of trash, the people who sold S-Class and placed big money on a Model S spoke with their wallets. Most of them replaced their first Model S with a second Model S. The next most replaced their Model S with a Model X. The fact that the Model S is a hatchback is more a decision by Tesla than a desire of the customers. Now that battery prices are coming down and the production costs of electric vehicles are coming down, we are seeing more body styles. Primarily CUVs, SUVs, and pickups. The body styles that mainstream buyers want.

Originally Posted by genxer

Buyer psychology has to have some different common points for different segments. Maybe premium/lux fastback buyers are: wowed by the tech or spec sheet; feeling slight lifestyle shame and buy into carbon correlation; wanting seen illuminated by the gas light of establishment's preferred future.

As I stated earlier, Model S buyers are not fastback buyer, they’re luxury sedan buyers. Surveys show that most popular second choice vehicle for first time Model S buyers is Mercedes S-Class. The next most popular second choice is BMW 7 Series. There is a lot to be said about your thoughts on buyer psychology. You’re on the right track for sure, but it goes much deeper than what you’ve assumed. There is actually a lot of psychographic work that goes into identifying the persona of likely buyers of each type of vehicle. Way too much for me to get into in this newsgroup but it’s fascinating stuff. I’m still learning about it. Thankfully one of my colleagues is an expert in it. We just finished a project for an automaker where she laid out the psychographic detail for their target market buyers. They were floored.

[genxer]

I wrote fastbacks and should have included sedans. I was thinking a streamlined roof, real notchbacks are gone.

I have encountered a Telsa driver playing the expressway box in game, slurping on a fountain drink. After finally getting in front and slowing him way down, albeit with a clear left lane - he just would not go.

Psychographics? Please, delve into the wonkish geek stuff. We can handle it.