GM Commences $13 Billion Public Offering

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by 1bad65

True. 100% true.

Look, you fans of GM who want to buy stock, go right ahead. It's your right. But use your HEAD, not your HEART. A perfect example is WWF/WWE. When they decided to go public in 2000, wrestling fans couldn't wait to buy it. They loved the product and the WWF/WWE was turning a profit. So they bought in on the IPO. It opened at ~$24/share. Now 10 years later, the stock has NEVER broken what it opened at. Never.

Look at GM's books, and look at their balance sheet and use your HEAD. If the numbers look good, your chances of making money on the stock are good, if the numbers don't look good, you're likely throwing money away. Just a word of caution.

And before I'm called a hater, I want to say I hope everyone who invests in GM makes money. I'm (and SC2150) just throwing out a few facts any intelligent, educated investor should look at.

When is there ever a guarantee that any particular stock will be worth more in 10 years than it is now? Buying stock is always a gamble, the odds are better than at the roulette wheel, but its never a sure thing. If you want a safe investment, there are plenty of other options.

[1bad65]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

When is there ever a guarantee that any particular stock will be worth more in 10 years than it is now? Buying stock is always a gamble, the odds are better than at the roulette wheel, but its never a sure thing. If you want a safe investment, there are plenty of other options.

Of course there isn't a guarantee. And it is a gamble, but look at GM stock's past performance over the last 10 years and tell me what YOU feel the odds are it will increase in value.

Also buying on an IPO, imo, is like betting on the game before the point spread is set by the oddsmakers. If I was gonna buy some GM stock at this time, and I'll be honest and openly admit I'm not, I'd at least wait til after the IPO and see where the market (ie the investors) dictates what the price should be.

[FenwickHockey65]

Can't afford too many shares myself. I'll see what the parents are thinking and match theirs most likely.

[SC2150]

Even with all the negatives surronding it I would still throw some gambling $$ at it. I suspect it will appreaciate.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by 1bad65

Of course there isn't a guarantee. And it is a gamble, but look at GM stock's past performance over the last 10 years and tell me what YOU feel the odds are it will increase in value.

Also buying on an IPO, imo, is like betting on the game before the point spread is set by the oddsmakers. If I was gonna buy some GM stock at this time, and I'll be honest and openly admit I'm not, I'd at least wait til after the IPO and see where the market (ie the investors) dictates what the price should be.

And nothings changed in the past 10 years, right? Well nothing except for reduced cost. And drastically reduced debt. And improved quality. And excellent product. And fewer brands. And they're making way more money per vehicle sold. What else am I missing that might be a sign to investors that they're way better off than they were as little as 2 years ago, let alone 10?

[motorhead]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

And nothings changed in the past 10 years, right? Well nothing except for reduced cost. And drastically reduced debt. And improved quality. And excellent product. And fewer brands. And they're making way more money per vehicle sold. What else am I missing that might be a sign to investors that they're way better off than they were as little as 2 years ago, let alone 10?

If they fail again I don't think it will be their fault this time mainly for the reasona you just stated ,but if gas prices go nuts again along with everything else going up well then, all bets are off. The way the future looks to me is why I don't really know if I want to step into any car company right now. Maybe for a really good price ,but from what I'm seeing right now it's more than I'm willing to let go.

[HeHasReturned]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

And nothings changed in the past 10 years, right? Well nothing except for reduced cost. And drastically reduced debt. And improved quality. And excellent product. And fewer brands. And they're making way more money per vehicle sold. What else am I missing that might be a sign to investors that they're way better off than they were as little as 2 years ago, let alone 10?

The point is that an IPO is limited in scope. How do we know that those GM shares should really be worth $26? It's not the same as normal stocks trading on the NYSE because those have been on the market for years, and therefore the market has decided a general equilibrium of stock prices, until of course new news and expectations come out. But the market has not decided that GM is worth $26 a share, a few I Bankers have, and therefore it would be a huge gamble to buy at that price, since the market may have a very different view of things than the few I Bankers. It's nearly impossible to accurately predict the expected price of a stock on the market until it's already on the market, hence why IPO's in general are risky
Note that this has nothing to do with the nature of the company, it's just the nature of an IPO.

[DGthe3]

Originally Posted by motorhead

If they fail again I don't think it will be their fault this time mainly for the reasona you just stated ,but if gas prices go nuts again along with everything else going up well then, all bets are off. The way the future looks to me is why I don't really know if I want to step into any car company right now. Maybe for a really good price ,but from what I'm seeing right now it's more than I'm willing to let go.

I've heard that GM has long term plans for gas to be something like $4.50/gal in the US, and not come down like it did in 2008.

[1bad65]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

What else am I missing that might be a sign to investors that they're way better off than they were as little as 2 years ago, let alone 10?

Well, there are several things that might be signs to the investors that they may be worse off than before.

If you ask me to list them, I will.

[motorhead]

Originally Posted by DGthe3

I've heard that GM has long term plans for gas to be something like $4.50/gal in the US, and not come down like it did in 2008.

If they keep ahead of that curve that will be a big plus. What worries me is if a large part of the country is out of a job and what little they have will go to needs not wants, then know body will be buying cars. I saw it first hand the first go around with my dealer friend. He used to sell GM cars and trucks like crazy (trucks and SUV's mainly) until gas went up first and then the economy went south. It only took about six months before he was out of the car business. It was by far the largest GM dealership in our area and it was no more. Now he sales real estate for someone else. These are scary times if you asked me.

[SC2150]

With the size of this IPO I doubt they will need to go the "pink sheet" route and then NASDAQ. They will go right to a NYSE listing shortly after the IPO. And even though I don't think it all is in anyway fair as I stated in my fist post, my bet is it will be well recieved. All this is my educated guess and IMHO, so lets see how it plays out....and then come back to these posts and see how far off I was.

[a_Username]

Originally Posted by motorhead

If they keep ahead of that curve that will be a big plus. What worries me is if a large part of the country is out of a job and what little they have will go to needs not wants, then know body will be buying cars. I saw it first hand the first go around with my dealer friend. He used to sell GM cars and trucks like crazy (trucks and SUV's mainly) until gas went up first and then the economy went south. It only took about six months before he was out of the car business. It was by far the largest GM dealership in our area and it was no more. Now he sales real estate for someone else. These are scary times if you asked me.

These boom-bust cycles will continue to be that way. Every bust is closer towards total collapse...

[Mr Twisty]

I like GM, but I refuse to buy stock based on "I want to see them succeed". Now if they put me on the board, none of the above applies

Due diligence, guys... seriously... unless you just like burning cash. Right now it's a 50/50 coin flip. Might as well go to Vegas, at least they give you free drinks before they bend you over... the stock market don't even kiss you first

[Mr Twisty]

Originally Posted by The_Blur

Autoblog seems to recommend buying.

I think I'll wait to see what Warren Buffett thinks