The end of gas engines and millions of jobs

[Doug kj6aco]

Originally Posted by soloknight6

Drove an electric shifter kart the other day @ K1 SPEED in carlsbad. WOW is all I can say. Love my V8's, all of the cars I have here are 8 cyls haha, but they are dinosaurs, its time for them to go extinct.

Bye bye to a lot of jobs, hello to a lot of NEW JOBS.

And remember, even if no new V8's are produced, they will still be here. My 72 455 Firebird is in my driveway RN waiting for some TLC.

It'a so funny you mention Carlsbad and K1. just down the street by the coast of Cannon Street is a plant that takes oil and produces electricity.
I'd like Tesla better if it was not so heavily government subsidized.
And they are not safe for the environment.

[smeech]

As for the gas motor, my guess is that it'll be in less than 10% of new vehicles by 2050. There will be a shift of jobs; not necessarily a loss of overall jobs. Teach your kids some programming languages.

Remember that electric cars are not synonymous with autonomous vehicles.

That said, autonomous vehicles have a bit further to go in order to be successful:
1. The obvious: super-intelligent AI (cameras, sensors, constant communication back and forth between vehicles and other static nodes in the roads, etc.).
2. People accepting that machines will make subjective/human decisions for them. This is a big one: if a car traveling with one person is on a collision course with a car traveling with a family of four; the AI may choose to ensure the priority of safety leans towards the family of four.
3. Success in safety is contingent on all vehicles being 100% autonomous.

The latter makes me think that, unless certain lanes or roadways are autonomous-only (regulating this would be difficult and crossing paths with human-driven cars is inevitable), autonomous passenger flying vehicles may end up becoming the norm before autonomous cars.

[LuvMI]

Everything has its place. Yet a lot of elements must change before then: millions of minds, money from consumers, federal laws, state laws, lobbyists for oil industry, roads, lobbyists for supplemental industries tied in with cars and oil... 2030,2040 or maybe damn near the next century before they all line up correctly and enough greedy, stubborn-asses die off. Who knows, when that day comes I may be bored with V8 engines... tho I seriously doubt it.

[MrChrisLS3]

First, in terms of power gained from energy used, the internal combustion engine is still the king. The electric engine is far from producing enough range to overtake the i.c.e. just yet. I think it will still be some time to come, but 20 to 30 years can see a lot happen.

That said, the real issue is infrastructure. Right now, there are not a lot of people, companies, or governments willing to roll that much dice on investing in a complete overhaul of our current infrastructure. Just the simple idea posted above is enough to keep many trigger shy on that kind of investment.

Also, just making a bunch of EV's and putting up a couple million EV charging stations is not the whole picture. If even so much as 50% of the cars were EV, how much more electricity would we have to produce to meet that kind of demand, and where would it come from? Sure there is wind and solar, but what about all of those batteries that will be needed to store it all? Those will have be manufactured, and of course, the materials will come from where? I'm no expert on lithium batteries, but it seems that they are not cheap to build, never minding their overall inefficiency in terms of size, weight, replacement costs, vs range. Then rises the other question, where we do put all these dead lithium batteries when their time has come? Even the "anti-carbon" crowd has to admit that at a global volume level, that could be an ecological nightmare. (Side question, how much petroleum is used just to build a car? Plastics, polymers, lubricants, that kind of stuff, before you even begin to fuel it?)

Will gasoline engines meet their day? Of course they will. But the driving force will be when adequate supplies of fossil fuels dry up. It won't be from anyone's altruistic movement to save the Earth, that's for sure. With that in mind, instead of using all these resources to create an entirely new type of engine, might it be better to use them to create a completely synthetic, as in non petroleum fuel and lubricant? Something perhaps that fuel the engines we have, lubricate them and make the non metal components necessary to build them? Just a thought.

[Red Chief]

Originally Posted by Doug kj6aco

It'a so funny you mention Carlsbad and K1. just down the street by the coast of Cannon Street is a plant that takes oil and produces electricity.
I'd like Tesla better if it was not so heavily government subsidized.
And they are not safe for the environment.

I agree with all of your points because we aren't quite "there" yet but I also think the potential of electric-powered vehicles and equipment is really exciting.

I got into race drones earlier this year and being able to access max torque instantly is incredible. The speed and maneuvers electric motors are capable of just annihilates combustion engines. My drone only does 50mph but it gets there in about 1 second.

[redcoats1976]

people are driving electric forklifts now that are comparable to gas lifts in every way and superior in several ways.once a solar panel becomes available to power the electric cars directly it wont be long before gas cars are gone.

[AndyUK]

The UK is not banning petrol or deisel cars. It is banning cars that ONLY have a fuel engine, hybrids will still be allowed so petrol and diesel engines will still be prevalent. Bearing in mind, in the UK manufacturers get away with advertising cars with stop/start as a type of "hybrid", all manufacturers have to do is fit the tiniest lip service electric motor and it will still be able to be sold.

Its going to be a hundred years before all petrol/diesel motors are off the roads (and power stations) for good.

[Gunkk]

Originally Posted by redcoats1976

people are driving electric forklifts now that are comparable to gas lifts in every way and superior in several ways.

Except inside freezers, high-duty cycle environments, outside in mud yards...

[Number 3]

OP, a good discussion topic, but not sure where you come up with the loss of MILLIONS of jobs. The people that make engines today will make electric motors and batteries tomorrow.

The shift will not be when we run out of oil as suggested, but simply when it is cheaper to drive and own an EV compared to an ICE. That is the tipping point. And with so many people trying to make that work at all the big OEMs and tiny start ups, it will be sooner rather than later.

As for autonomous vehicles that too is coming sooner rather than later. There is a company that has hundreds of young engineers working ridiculous hours (they are fed all meals) simply working on coding and programming. They update their test fleet every morning with coding done the previous day from data downloaded at the end of the previous day. They are working at a rate that is beyond anything I've seen for one purpose.....to be first.

For autonomy, the companies don't want to make the hardware. Ultimately that's a losing game. It's the software that runs it.

We will see huge differences mid next century.

Just to further the discussion on autonomy, look up The Trolley Problem. The software in your autonomous car will make that decision.

[SSTony]

we should of already had a fuel alternative by now but if we did it would almost collapse the economy. You have no clue how much gas we use today.

[vtirocz]

Originally Posted by Battlezone580

As all of us on this site are car enthusiasts, this seems like the perfect platform to discuss the end of gas engines, muscle cars, and much more.
I'm sure most of you know by now the U.K has banned sales of all gas and diesel motors by 2040, now California is proposing the same. I believe the U.S will be soon to follow in this trend, assuming our next president is for preventing climate change.

Elon Musk recently announced the "Tesla Semi" a heavy-duty electric truck. Tesla Sedans already have the capability to drive them selfs, and were only in 2017. Within 20 years all jobs that require human drivers will be long gone. It's hard to wrap my head around the impact this will have. I was thinking of California alone, a huge part of our yearly revenue is from traffic tickets. With self-driven cars that's all gone. No need for body shops, auto insurance, and so much more.

I work for one of the biggest insurance companies in the U.S, and we've predicted all cars on the road to be robot driven by 2050. We also predict auto insurance will be dead around the same.With all "robot" cars on the street, there will be virtually no crashes or need for insurance. Manufactures will take on the liability for any "freak" accidents caused by the car.

Everyone post their opinions below! I'm curious to see what everyone's thoughts are on this matter.

Sources:
UK gas ban: http://www.npr.org/2017/07/26/539576...are-the-future
CA gas ban:http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-...176030626.html
Telsa Semi: https://electrek.co/guides/tesla-semi/

I'm surprised a big insurance company sees no need for car insurance in the future. Aren't most claims comprehensive related? Also, what about older cars on the road that are not autonomous?

[Oil Man]

As long as the proliferation of electric vehicles is driven by mandates instead of the market, there will be political pushback.

I suspect this is going to be a lot like the gun issue: A lot of "guy on the street" support for changes and controls, but no real political support, because the dirty little secret is that the electorate from BOTH parties secretly love their guns and cars, and just believe that the problem lies elsewhere.

Besides, so long as you have plumes of unregulated, uncatalyzed, untreated jet fuel exhaust streaming into the upper atmosphere at a rate that literally boggles the mind, then there is no rational argument for how my automobile constitutes the greater environmental threat. (and not complaining here, that JFA pays a good chunk of my mortgage)

I do recall reading somewhere that automobiles constitute somewhere between 3-5% of the total global hydrocarbon emissions pie. The lion's share is jet aircraft, and fuel oil burning ships, which run on the nastiest, heaviest, sulfur-rich bottom of the distillation stack oils: decant, vgo, etc.

The difference? Airlines and shipping companies have lobbyists. So automobiles get to be the bad guys.

So yeah. Have fun with autonomous vehicles, and electric cars. I'll be the dude having fun

[MrChrisLS3]

[QUOTE=Number 3;9923794]OP, a good discussion topic, but not sure where you come up with the loss of MILLIONS of jobs. The people that make engines today will make electric motors and batteries tomorrow.

The shift will not be when we run out of oil as suggested, but simply when it is cheaper to drive and own an EV compared to an ICE. That is the tipping point. And with so many people trying to make that work at all the big OEMs and tiny start ups, it will be sooner rather than later.

As for autonomous vehicles that too is coming sooner rather than later.
For autonomy, the companies don't want to make the hardware. Ultimately that's a losing game. It's the software that runs it.

We will see huge differences mid next century.

QUOTE]

Absolutely, market demand will drive it, and market demand will almost always be steered by economic conditions. Right now oil is cheap enough that the average person isn't really to concerned about it. Right now the driving force behind the EV movement is based upon conservationist ideals. While it is not considered "politically correct" to come out against them in many areas, it will absolutely require an economic motivator.

That tipping point is going to be a combination of a shift of balance in the supply v. demand of crude oil and the lowering cost of production for EV's. We are not going to wake up one morning to a news announcement saying "holy crap, we're out of oil!" The problem with the EV's right now, other than price, is convenience. If I left my house right now to drive to Dallas from Houston, it would take about three hours, and I would have to stop for gas once, taking about 2 minutes to fill the take. If I were in a EV, it would take, what 6 hours, as stopping for a recharge would take a couple of hours? (I'm not sure what that rate of time would be, just guessing there)

A lot can happen in the next 100 years though...
https://100yearsagotoday.wordpress.c...ry/automobile/

[Red Chief]

Originally Posted by SSTony

we should of already had a fuel alternative by now but if we did it would almost collapse the economy. You have no clue how much gas we use today.

The funny part is how many people equate oil with gasoline only.

No oil = no plastic. That's an even worse dependency.