Facebook IPO

8cd03gro · 01-31-2012, 11:10 AM

Should be interesting. Thoughts? I think they're going to massively overvalue it.

jdcvictory11 · 01-31-2012, 11:13 AM

I have been waiting for this moment. I hoping to make a few dollars on them going public. Any word on when?

8cd03gro · 01-31-2012, 11:18 AM

Not yet. They just recently filed, so we won't know the date for a while yet. I would be cautious with how you play this one though. Don't get sucked into the idea that IPO's always turn bullish, especially this one. I think we'll see something similar to GM's IPO, a surge if institutional buyers followed by massive sell-offs. On the other hand, that initial surge could be incredibly huge and the right price could be great long term. Just nobody bet the farm.

jdcvictory11 · 01-31-2012, 11:49 AM

Forbes is saying that the numbers are similar to that of Google in 2004. I am going to get in when I can, and sell 1/2 at 50% profit (if it gets that way). Then hold for larger gains. Again..... IF. It will be interesting to follow.

Mr_Draco · 01-31-2012, 11:50 AM

With as popular and profitable as FB is with selling out server space to other companies, I expect their initial list price will be out of reach of the common investor and wouldn't be surprised if it starts close to $100 but I think somewhere in the $50-$75 range. Just imo.

Mr_Draco · 01-31-2012, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 8cd03gro

Should be interesting. Thoughts? I think they're going to massively overvalue it.

You mean like how Google is way overvalued at $100+ a share.

jdcvictory11 · 01-31-2012, 11:56 AM

Google is now $580/share, but started out at less than a dollar. And peaked around $680/share. If Facebook is over a hundred a share for the initial, it will be too steep for me. I am hoping for a low enrty.

JohnnyComeLately · 01-31-2012, 12:16 PM

I'm just not sold on FB as a company. Maybe I need to do more research. I'm heavy on Oracle and Apple right now. I bought a good amount of Apple at $390, so I'm enjoying it at $450+. I've thought about FB, but I just don't see a long term plan for profitability, etc. I've seen too many Internet companies flame out, so maybe I'm just gunshy. I've been heavy in tech stocks and always been 20%+ annually for over the last 15 years ( to include the AAPL I bought at peanuts back in late 80s and still have).

Mr_Draco · 01-31-2012, 12:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyComeLately

I'm just not sold on FB as a company. Maybe I need to do more research. I'm heavy on Oracle and Apple right now. I bought a good amount of Apple at $390, so I'm enjoying it at $450+. I've thought about FB, but I just don't see a long term plan for profitability, etc. I've seen too many Internet companies flame out, so maybe I'm just gunshy. I've been heavy in tech stocks and always been 20%+ annually for over the last 15 years ( to include the AAPL I bought at peanuts back in late 80s and still have).

FB makes billions a year in profit off of selling server space to other companies. They recently started building 4 buildings in NC near where I live that all cost over 4 million a piece just to house tens of thousands of servers to sell off to other companies. As long as the internet exist, FB is going no where and will be one of the most profitable companies out there.

2ndgenz28 · 01-31-2012, 03:44 PM

Just remember how fast the press and media turned on myspace, and everyone in the world hates the new timeline FB is forcing on everyone tomorrow.

The place will be a ghost town soon.

2ndgenz28 · 01-31-2012, 04:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr_Draco

FB makes billions a year in profit off of selling server space to other companies. They recently started building 4 buildings in NC near where I live that all cost over 4 million a piece just to house tens of thousands of servers to sell off to other companies. As long as the internet exist, FB is going no where and will be one of the most profitable companies out there.

Thats just like Amazon, that is done to make sure you can pay the bills to do the things you like.

Just like Summit or even more so Jeggs, they sells parts to make sure they can do what they like, if the main source of income "racing or FB" doesn't bring in enough, your not hurting to keep things top notch. You have a back up funding source.

Stingr69 · 01-31-2012, 05:33 PM

The whole reason to go public is to sell your company to the public and the company uses that money to help grow the business. If you were Facebook, what would you do to grow your business? How do you generate MORE profit without pissing off your members? What would you do with the money to grow the profitabillity??? How many more Facebook users are out there that this money will help to bring in???

It could be that the IPO will allow Zuckerberg to cash out and take the money with him. Then the new owners (stockholders) will be on the hook to produce growth OR the value of the stock the stockholder have will drop rapidly. It ain't worth owning if it does not grow or at least pay a dividend. If they can't find opportunities to grow they could just start handing out dividends from profits then you can better evaluate the investment as it would compare to other dividend paying investments. Unless that happens, you need the growth angle to work.

If you want to believe there IS a growth opportunity then go ahead and buy some but it might be better to wait a few quarters to see what the game plan is and see if they know how to execute the plan.

Bottom line - you might want to look elsewhere to see if this is the best opportunity you can find for your money before diving in. JMO.

-Mark.

JohnnyComeLately · 02-03-2012, 01:13 PM

Stingr69 has stated exactly what I was thinking, but just trying to not be a "Negative Nancy" (nothing wrong with his post, I was just trying to keep it light/positive). I've been investing since I was 16 (I picked, my mom bought through a Dean Whitter account for me), which was in the late 80s. I've been maintaining 20+ percent growth annually for over two decades (heck, Apple and Oracle have me at 10% just in the last 30 days). I've seen companies with great promise, but 99% of the time if I don't see long term sustainability, I've been right. My only misread was Novell. Every other "call" has been spot on. I held Apple all through the late 80s and early 90s even though I was getting killed. I saw longterm potential (I still remembered programming an Apple IIe in elementary school). I started a buying spree late last year, and it's working out. The only reason I'm mentioning this is I really firmly believe in only investing in what you know and understand a great deal. My "motto", if you will is, "Whoever has the best information first, wins on Wall Street."

That said, hosting and selling ads doesn't get my expectations terribly high (meaning, above "risk free investing" at a 10 year bond rate....which is horribly low right now, plus a normal risk premium). I watched MySpace blow up, and I don't see many barriers to a repeat, or a newcomer handing Facebook their lunch, so to speak. They haven't "copyrighted" social media, so the practical/legal barriers are low. Advertising and selling server space is a commodity. Commodities generally are very low margin, and so unless you've got some great hook that gives you a competitive advantage (really hard to do with a commodity), you're always in a precarious position watching your "6" for competitors. Google got lucky they caught Yahoo sleeping. Remember Alta Vista? They were the "go to" search engine when the Internet first became popular in the mid-90s, and you'd be hard pressed to find a single person who's been to their website in the last 8-10 years.

2ndgenz28 · 02-03-2012, 01:28 PM

If anyone body knows better Zuckerberg has to know the gravy train has its limits.

Also note worthy, the out cry about the forced timeline seems to have worked some.

FB isn't saying anything about it though, but the as planned forced transfer to time line for all users never happened Feb 1.

Smart not to have 75% of your users pissed off while you try and roll out an IPO.

01-31-2012, 11:10 AM	#1
8cd03gro Drives: 2005 STi corn fed Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Colorado Posts: 2,997	Facebook IPO Should be interesting. Thoughts? I think they're going to massively overvalue it.

01-31-2012, 12:16 PM	#8
JohnnyComeLately Drives: 2010 SS/RS Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: San Diego Posts: 311	I'm just not sold on FB as a company. Maybe I need to do more research. I'm heavy on Oracle and Apple right now. I bought a good amount of Apple at $390, so I'm enjoying it at $450+. I've thought about FB, but I just don't see a long term plan for profitability, etc. I've seen too many Internet companies flame out, so maybe I'm just gunshy. I've been heavy in tech stocks and always been 20%+ annually for over the last 15 years ( to include the AAPL I bought at peanuts back in late 80s and still have). __________________ Both my rides will smoke ya 2010 L99 2SS/RS - Hertz HE HSK 165 components/PPI A404 & A600/JL Audio 10W6/Audio Control EQX, FAST Intake Manifold

02-03-2012, 01:13 PM	#13
JohnnyComeLately Drives: 2010 SS/RS Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: San Diego Posts: 311	Stingr69 has stated exactly what I was thinking, but just trying to not be a "Negative Nancy" (nothing wrong with his post, I was just trying to keep it light/positive). I've been investing since I was 16 (I picked, my mom bought through a Dean Whitter account for me), which was in the late 80s. I've been maintaining 20+ percent growth annually for over two decades (heck, Apple and Oracle have me at 10% just in the last 30 days). I've seen companies with great promise, but 99% of the time if I don't see long term sustainability, I've been right. My only misread was Novell. Every other "call" has been spot on. I held Apple all through the late 80s and early 90s even though I was getting killed. I saw longterm potential (I still remembered programming an Apple IIe in elementary school). I started a buying spree late last year, and it's working out. The only reason I'm mentioning this is I really firmly believe in only investing in what you know and understand a great deal. My "motto", if you will is, "Whoever has the best information first, wins on Wall Street." That said, hosting and selling ads doesn't get my expectations terribly high (meaning, above "risk free investing" at a 10 year bond rate....which is horribly low right now, plus a normal risk premium). I watched MySpace blow up, and I don't see many barriers to a repeat, or a newcomer handing Facebook their lunch, so to speak. They haven't "copyrighted" social media, so the practical/legal barriers are low. Advertising and selling server space is a commodity. Commodities generally are very low margin, and so unless you've got some great hook that gives you a competitive advantage (really hard to do with a commodity), you're always in a precarious position watching your "6" for competitors. Google got lucky they caught Yahoo sleeping. Remember Alta Vista? They were the "go to" search engine when the Internet first became popular in the mid-90s, and you'd be hard pressed to find a single person who's been to their website in the last 8-10 years. __________________ Both my rides will smoke ya 2010 L99 2SS/RS - Hertz HE HSK 165 components/PPI A404 & A600/JL Audio 10W6/Audio Control EQX, FAST Intake Manifold

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01-31-2012, 11:13 AM	#2
jdcvictory11 Sonja Drives: '11 LT/RS, '95 Camaro Conv. Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Las Vegas, Nevada Posts: 884 View My Garage	I have been waiting for this moment. I hoping to make a few dollars on them going public. Any word on when?

01-31-2012, 11:18 AM	#3
8cd03gro Drives: 2005 STi corn fed Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Colorado Posts: 2,997	Not yet. They just recently filed, so we won't know the date for a while yet. I would be cautious with how you play this one though. Don't get sucked into the idea that IPO's always turn bullish, especially this one. I think we'll see something similar to GM's IPO, a surge if institutional buyers followed by massive sell-offs. On the other hand, that initial surge could be incredibly huge and the right price could be great long term. Just nobody bet the farm.

01-31-2012, 11:49 AM	#4
jdcvictory11 Sonja Drives: '11 LT/RS, '95 Camaro Conv. Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Las Vegas, Nevada Posts: 884 View My Garage	Forbes is saying that the numbers are similar to that of Google in 2004. I am going to get in when I can, and sell 1/2 at 50% profit (if it gets that way). Then hold for larger gains. Again..... IF. It will be interesting to follow.

01-31-2012, 11:50 AM	#5
Mr_Draco Drives: 2SS/RS Join Date: Sep 2008 Location: Western North Carolina Posts: 7,344	With as popular and profitable as FB is with selling out server space to other companies, I expect their initial list price will be out of reach of the common investor and wouldn't be surprised if it starts close to $100 but I think somewhere in the $50-$75 range. Just imo.

01-31-2012, 11:56 AM	#7
jdcvictory11 Sonja Drives: '11 LT/RS, '95 Camaro Conv. Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: Las Vegas, Nevada Posts: 884 View My Garage	Google is now $580/share, but started out at less than a dollar. And peaked around $680/share. If Facebook is over a hundred a share for the initial, it will be too steep for me. I am hoping for a low enrty.

01-31-2012, 03:44 PM	#10
2ndgenz28 Thread Killer Drives: All Black Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: NWO Toledo Area Posts: 4,720	Just remember how fast the press and media turned on myspace, and everyone in the world hates the new timeline FB is forcing on everyone tomorrow. The place will be a ghost town soon.

01-31-2012, 05:33 PM	#12
Stingr69 '69 Owned Since '79 Drives: '69 Z/28 LeMans Blue w/White Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: LR AR Posts: 1,848 View My Garage	The whole reason to go public is to sell your company to the public and the company uses that money to help grow the business. If you were Facebook, what would you do to grow your business? How do you generate MORE profit without pissing off your members? What would you do with the money to grow the profitabillity??? How many more Facebook users are out there that this money will help to bring in??? It could be that the IPO will allow Zuckerberg to cash out and take the money with him. Then the new owners (stockholders) will be on the hook to produce growth OR the value of the stock the stockholder have will drop rapidly. It ain't worth owning if it does not grow or at least pay a dividend. If they can't find opportunities to grow they could just start handing out dividends from profits then you can better evaluate the investment as it would compare to other dividend paying investments. Unless that happens, you need the growth angle to work. If you want to believe there IS a growth opportunity then go ahead and buy some but it might be better to wait a few quarters to see what the game plan is and see if they know how to execute the plan. Bottom line - you might want to look elsewhere to see if this is the best opportunity you can find for your money before diving in. JMO. -Mark.

02-03-2012, 01:28 PM	#14
2ndgenz28 Thread Killer Drives: All Black Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: NWO Toledo Area Posts: 4,720	If anyone body knows better Zuckerberg has to know the gravy train has its limits. Also note worthy, the out cry about the forced timeline seems to have worked some. FB isn't saying anything about it though, but the as planned forced transfer to time line for all users never happened Feb 1. Smart not to have 75% of your users pissed off while you try and roll out an IPO.