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Scalded Dog · 10-15-2014, 11:24 AM

I did some basic math: At the rates of spread cited by SOME sources (and there are wildly conflicting reports of how many have it, what its exponential spread rate, and so forth are... I sort of went "middle- of- the- road/ average" for this), if 1.4 million COULD be infected by January, that rate of spread, unchecked, would reach 11 billion people by May of next year.

Clearly, we don't have that many people on the planet, and, of course, there are a nearly infinite number of variables to factor in, that render this 11 billion figure essentially worthless... but it's something to think about.

I'm not an alarmist... I'm always the guy who rolls his eyes at news sensationalism, and who talks people down from panic or concern. However... Ebola is a thing we've never faced before. There does not seem to be any way to contain its geographical spread, especially not in our world of constant travel and mingling with others.

I WAS a proponent of a travel ban: However, at this point, I see it as pointless... too late. We can't stop ALL travel from those countries, so it seems pointless. Let's say you have a bucket of water... the bucket has ten holes in it, so all of the water runs out. But if you plug seven of the holes... well, all of the water still runs out. Even if you plug NINE of the holes, every drop of the water will still run out. Same with preventing this virus from spreading stateside: If we can't plug ALL of the holes, then it seems pointless. We can't track a person leaving Africa who travels to New Delhi, then to London then to Quebec... we can't even tell who is carrying the virus (but doesn't show symptoms), or stop those people from later spreading it to a LOT of other people. We don't even understand how to contain it by following "CDC protocol." We are up against something that NOBODY can contain.

AIDS was scary... but most people figured that if they did not engage in risky behavior (sexually and with drug use) that they were very unlikely to contract the disease. Ebola is different, and that's why it scares people: Anybody can get it.

IF the shit hits the fan here in the U.S., the usually- mocked Preppers will be king. Everybody will wish they'd prepped.

Only time will tell where this goes. We could develop a vaccine, we might figure out a way to contain it.

10-15-2014, 11:24 AM	#19
Scalded Dog Drives: 2011 1LT Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Crestline, CA Posts: 3,029	I did some basic math: At the rates of spread cited by SOME sources (and there are wildly conflicting reports of how many have it, what its exponential spread rate, and so forth are... I sort of went "middle- of- the- road/ average" for this), if 1.4 million COULD be infected by January, that rate of spread, unchecked, would reach 11 billion people by May of next year. Clearly, we don't have that many people on the planet, and, of course, there are a nearly infinite number of variables to factor in, that render this 11 billion figure essentially worthless... but it's something to think about. I'm not an alarmist... I'm always the guy who rolls his eyes at news sensationalism, and who talks people down from panic or concern. However... Ebola is a thing we've never faced before. There does not seem to be any way to contain its geographical spread, especially not in our world of constant travel and mingling with others. I WAS a proponent of a travel ban: However, at this point, I see it as pointless... too late. We can't stop ALL travel from those countries, so it seems pointless. Let's say you have a bucket of water... the bucket has ten holes in it, so all of the water runs out. But if you plug seven of the holes... well, all of the water still runs out. Even if you plug NINE of the holes, every drop of the water will still run out. Same with preventing this virus from spreading stateside: If we can't plug ALL of the holes, then it seems pointless. We can't track a person leaving Africa who travels to New Delhi, then to London then to Quebec... we can't even tell who is carrying the virus (but doesn't show symptoms), or stop those people from later spreading it to a LOT of other people. We don't even understand how to contain it by following "CDC protocol." We are up against something that NOBODY can contain. AIDS was scary... but most people figured that if they did not engage in risky behavior (sexually and with drug use) that they were very unlikely to contract the disease. Ebola is different, and that's why it scares people: Anybody can get it. IF the shit hits the fan here in the U.S., the usually- mocked Preppers will be king. Everybody will wish they'd prepped. Only time will tell where this goes. We could develop a vaccine, we might figure out a way to contain it.