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Energy Information Administration (DOE) Short-term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook April 2008

If you want to know what the DOE predicts for the next few months, this pdf has all the info. Interesting information regarding US oil production. The quote below seemed the most appropriate to discussions held on Camaro5.

The methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) phaseout in 2006, high oil prices, and new mandates requiring the use of renewable fuels, have all encouraged construction of new ethanol production capacity. During 2007, 36 new ethanol plants or plant expansions started production, and in 2008 an additional 64 new facilities are expected to begin production. Domestic ethanol production has increased from an average of 314,000 bbl/d during the summer of 2006, to 418,000 bbl/d during the summer of 2007, and is projected to average 550,000 bbl/d this summer. This summer’s domestic gasoline production is expected to be down by about 20,000 bbl/d from last summer’s average. Because of the expected 130,000 bbl/d increase in ethanol production, production of gasoline at U.S. refineries is expected to decline by as much as 150,000 bbl/d this summer.

At the onset of the peak driving season (April 1), total gasoline stocks, at 224 million barrels, are estimated to be ample. That level is 23 million barrels above last year, 19 million barrels above the 5‐year average, and the highest in 15 years (U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories). Because of the high current inventory level, the average stock draw is projected to be about 88,000 bbl/d, compared with last summer’s 14,000 bbl/d stock draw (and the average of 15,000 bbl/d over the last 15 years).