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Uhh, everything sounds like a dooms day scenario. How about this off-the-wall prediction?
GM declares bankruptcy
GM jettisons debt, unprofitable plants and dealers.
GM "rightsizes" jobs and logistics to become profitable (pessimists read "downsize")
GM continues to have an "international" presence, with plants and dealers everywhere, inc the US, but less than today of course
GM makes the right cars that people want to buy with the right dealerships in place to sell them fairly (this one is tough I realize)
GM becomes profitable (say like what... 2-4 years or less)
Stock goes up from 0 (easy prediction after bankruptcy)
GM starts upsizing, hiring more people and building more plants (4 years+ wildly optimistically)
US Treasury starts selling its stake (presumably earlier than waiting 4 years)
Bond holders get some return on their investment (after all they own stock and can buy more)
US Union Workers continue to get hired and stay employed (if all the above is true, this can be an easy guess)
Everyone (including the tax payer) is happy!
This doesn't even assume GM will become the best or largest or "most" profitable, simply that from releasing it's choking debt, killing it's too big dealernetwork, and downsizing jobs initially allows GM to grow enough to pay everyone/thing back at least some of their losses, including Mr. Tax Payer.
If you don't assume all the above, the only alternative I see is GM liquidating, everyone getting paid off something extremely little (with Mr. Tax Payer out 20 B's and Evil Union totally destroyed) and other car manufacturers buying up GM brand assets, cherry picking. Do we really think Ford will pick up a lot of this stuff, or some other foriegn car maker. Do you guys really think that its not worth Mr. Tax payer supporting GM to get rid of it's debt? Bankruptcy is better?!? Sorry, I just don't get that. On any level. The only alternative I see is GM liquidating its assets and a ton of more unknown stuff that could happen to those assets, all of which may or MAY NOT benefit jobs, the economy, and Mr. Taxpayer for the US.
Off my soapbox
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