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Old 05-19-2009, 03:43 PM   #110
MrIcky

 
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Drives: Dodge Ram Megacab & Cobalt SS
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Boise
Posts: 1,536
There are some similarities between now and the 70's, but there are some huge technology differences too.

For instance, there are several cars right now that get ~30 highway MPG and will take a 60's-70's muscle car's lunch money. So V8s become a nostalgia argument. Can that sell enough cars to make it worthwhile at $4/gallon? Maybe yes for Vettes and up, maybe no below that mark.

***Politics, GW, Middle East, fill-in-the-blank be damned: if you really think this through, not just for you and your fun factor you have to realize that oil is finite and it does cause polution (even if it's only haze over a city- not GW). So fuel efficiency isn't a bad thing.

***You also have to realize that traditionally only 3 things really change transportation technologies: war, fuel price, and regulation.

It's not hard to see the pattern here- war, fuel price, regulation---pick any 2. Expect taxes on fuel as the economy recovers. Its never been so easy to be a futurist. Expect a small boon to the economy as cities and states get unfunded mandates to provide infrastructure for electric vehicles. Expect battery technology to get intense funding and coverage. Expect 100 mile electric vehicles that can recharge in an hour or 2 by 2016.

Then in 2020 expect to see a seismic shift to electrical power for cars with a full court press from government, the media, school- you name it.
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