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It would make the most sense for all the Texas teams except Baylor to stick together. Baylor could be a conference leader in a smaller conference, so I'm less worried about their future. From a profitability standpoint, Baylor is almost completely worthless because the entire Texas market is dominated by bigger, better schools. Besides, Baylor is a private institution with a heavily religious enrollment, meaning that they don't binge drink and buy school stuff as recklessly as other students do. Baylor is not a good fit for the Big 12 or any conference with so many state schools.
K-State and Kansas have agreed to help one another. Together, they bring in almost all of Kansas' revenue. Missouri might want to join the Big 10. If Notre Dame joins the Big 10, then Missouri is in some trouble on that side of things.
The SEC might be a good fit for Kansas, but no invitations have been offered. I say this because Kansas can resume an old rivalry with Kentucky and have a strong basketball tradition there while developing a stronger football program there. The recruiting might be better, too. If Kansas makes the trip to the SEC, Texas A&M, Kansas State, and Missouri might all want to join. My guess is that Kansas would be a far cry from first on the SEC's list of desirable schools. For now, it makes the most sense for Texas A&M to go there.
Of course, if Texas A&M goes there, the other Texas and Oklahoma schools will be best off in the short term staying in the Big 12, but there would only be 9 teams. For this to work, someone needs to join, but no one has an interest in joining this nobody conference. As a result, it is inevitable that the remains of the Big 12 will leave at some point, so those schools might go ahead and head to the Pac-10. If they hit the Pac-10 without Texas A&M, the new conference will want another team. That other team could be Baylor, saving them from their fear of being alone.
In this scenario, you've Iowa State, Kansas State, Missouri, and Kansas alone. This is bad news. They would have to join the Mountain West Conference, the Big East, or the Missouri Valley Conference. The Big East would be a far stretch, so let's rule that out. The Mountain West Conference would probably have no interest in Iowa State, so that school would have to fend for itself. The Missouri Valley Conference is the best bet for them all staying together, but that conference sucks, has no recruiting power, and offers very weak funding compared to a major conference.
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