For the record, this is my "informed opinion" as an automotive analyst and consultant (now retired
). I've expressed this opinion in private consultation with clients as well as at numerous conferences and industry events that I've had the honor to speak before...
When Tesla launched the Model S and a bit later the Model X, they targeted those vehicles directly at luxury sedans and luxury utilities. The market leaders in those segments chose to ignore them or view them as a niche vehicle that might take a little bit of market share here or there.
The Model S ate S-Class and 7-Series lunch. The Model X significantly impacted sales of BMW and Mercedes-Benz utilities. Set that aside for a minute.
Tesla comes forward with an announcement of an all electric truck aimed primarily at the "lifestyle truck" portion of the full-sized truck market. This is arguably the most profitable portion of the light duty pickup market.
In 2019, Tesla's claims for the then upcoming truck was that it would have a 500 mile range, 15,000 lbs towing, practically zero maintenance requirements and prices starting at $40k for a RWD variant. Based on the experience with luxury sedans and utilities it would have been foolish for the leaders in the pickup truck market to NOT pay attention and to NOT be prepared to respond.
Three things happened...
- The Cyber truck achieved NONE of its originally stated targets.
- The Cybertruck was more than two years late to market.
- Ford and GM not only reacted, they over-reacted.
Based on what I've learned about how the new generation of Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREV) are designed to operate, EREV is the most logical technology application for electrified trucks. This is the direction Ford has just announced for the F150 Lightning replacement and the direction that Ram is following whenever they actually launch their Ram 1500 REV. It's not clear at this time whether GM will join the EREV parade or if they will plan to go with a more traditional Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) approach. I think if they were ever on the fence with this, the Ford announcement will nudge them to the EREV side.