[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by KMPrenger

Yet Ford and other automakers world wide are pulling back the reins on their big EV plans. What do you mean by "other markets seem a lot more focused on economy and safety"? Safety?

...and I'm just gonna revert back to my broken record saying now....but...

Hybrids just make sense. I'm not saying EVs don't make sense at all, but the FASTEST WAY to reduce tailpipe emissions through buyer acceptability of battery operated vehicles is through hybrids.

Automakers are definitely rescoping their approaches to EVs. They are not ripping up the playbook, but they are tearing out a page or two and rewriting some pages. Ford and GM both went balls out developing and bringing to market EV pickups. In both cases it was in direct response to Tesla’s initial reveal of the CyberTruck. Remember, the whole industry ignored Tesla when Tesla unveiled Model S. Then Model S ate M-B S Class and BMW 7 Series lunch. The industry laughed at the goofy doors when Tesla introduced the Model X. Then it ate M-B GL Class and BMW X6 lunch. So when Tesla came at pickup trucks, Ford and GM cash cows, they paid attention and reacted quickly. Now they are seeing that they probably overreacted. So now they are dialing that back. Both companies beat Tesla to market with arguably better trucks than the CyberTruck and the CyberTruck has fallen short of expectation on almost every measure when compared to Elon’s original targets.

Ford is also seeing that even though the 3-row large SUV Kia EV9 is technically acclaimed and lauded in the auto press, it’s not exactly flying off the lots. So they are understandably slowing their roll on chasing that one. Rivian R1S is doing ok in terms of sales, but pricing is going to limit that to some extent. So no hurry for Ford to bring in the EV equivalent of an Expedition, especially when the Expedition brings in 5-digit profit margins. Same with GM cutting back target volumes for Silverado EV and Sierra EV. Cadillac is still launching 3-row EVs this year and next, including an EV Escalade. Both GM and Ford are still moving forward with multiple EV products in other product segments. But they are also increasing the number of hybrids in their portfolios. The hybrids are likely to replace some of the planned EV product and ALL of the remaining ICE product.

I’ll continue to stand by my position that for my lifetime at least, we should expect to see a mix of hybrid, PHEV, and EV where most buyers will be able to find a vehicle that best suits their needs. ICE only vehicles will likely die out 2030-ish if for no other reason than adding hybrid systems to existing vehicles. The issue will continue to be at what point will EVs have larger market share than non-EVs. Last year my company was forecasting that to occur in 2028 globally, 2030 in the US. Now we’ve backed that off to about 2032-3 in the US. China (world’s largest market) just crested the 50% EV mark in the last quarter. Europe is probably still on target for 2028-ish.


Shameless promo… As I type this I’m drafting my presentation for an upcoming client conference. Title is “Detours on the Yellow Brick Road: Charting the multiple paths to vehicle electrification”