Chevrolet Corvette Stingray C7 Forum - View Single Post

Martinjlm · 07-14-2024, 09:32 AM

Position of ICE / EV short term & long term
In the short term (now - 2030) I expect that we will continue to see more models of EV introduced in the small, small premium, mid-sized and mid-sized premium utility segments. These (along with pickups) are the most popular vehicles in the US auto market and they are highly competitive. I think the most important vehicle on the market right now is the Equinox EV. It’s the first real example of an automaker offering an affordable EV that is usable by most people for all intended design uses. Anybody who has an Equinox as a primary vehicle could easily replace it with an Equinox EV and not miss a beat. The Equinox EV starts at $41,900.Equinox ICE base prices range $27,995 - 34,795. When you factor in content differences the price delta is reduced, since th EV has more standard content than the ICE.

Some could argue that the Tesla Model Y should be considered the first affordable, but I have to point out that is not where Model Y started. It is capable of doing everything that any ICE utility in its class is capable of, but it was originally launched with pricing in the $60,000 range and it’s logical to believe that most people consider that it is still priced in that range. Through a series of price reductions it is now priced starting at $45,000. A little more than an Equinox EV, but also in a larger more premium market segment. The average price of a new vehicle in the US 2023 was $48,008 so it falls into the affordable category.

So, more entries in the crossover an SUV segments in the short term. That is likely to expand into new entries in the large SUV categories. This is where it gets interesting. The traditional automakers make an incredible amount of profit on their large RWD SUVs. Tahoe / Yukon, Suburban, Escalade, Expedition, Grand Cherokee, etc are all cash cows. So the parent companies are not going to be in any hurry to replace them with EV models. But, non-traditional automakers who have been locked out of this lucrative product segment have nothing to lose and will begin to bring alternative 6+ passenger vehicles with impressive feature content to the segment. The traditional automakers will need to introduce similar EV product simply to defend their turf.

The first shots have already been fired. Rivian R1S and Kia EV9 are already well received in market as alternatives to 3 row 6+ passenger ICE utilities. The pricing of the Kia EV9 in particular is right in the middle of the pricing range for Chevrolet Tahoe. Add to that the cost savings of operating on household supplied electricity vs gasoline and the Kia EV9 begins to look more attractive by comparison.

The thing is, this is the type of vehicle that is also most considered for long distance family travel and that touches on the biggest concern with EVs in general. Common perception works against 3-row 6+ passenger EV and will slow the adoption, particularly for non-traditional automakers. But when the traditional automakers are pushed into the market, they will need to assist the non-traditional automakers in pushing back on elements of common perception that are factually incorrect. That could be game changing.

Perception: It will take hours to charge the EV on road trips.
Fact: Effective recharging can by done in roughly 20 - 40 minutes depending on size of battery and vehicle’s charging system capability. Hyundai-Kia currently has the fastest charging system in the industry. The Kia EV9 and can charge from 10% to 80% in 24 minutes

Perception: It is difficult to find places to charge.
Fact: Every EV sold on the US market today has charging station location information embedded in their navigation systems. These location services target and navigate to charging stations when prompted. In my experience driving an EV and just randomly “checking” to see where charging stations are I have always been able to identify multiple charging locations within 20 miles of my current position. No, I haven’t driven through Iowa, the Dakotas, Montana, and other upper Midwest states that will be among the last to add infrastructure so there’s that. Tesla opening up their Supercharger network to other brands more than doubles the availability to fast charging solutions for anybody considering an EV.

Long term (2030 - beyond) I expect to see broader development of additional form factors for EVs. Once the crossover / SUV segments get saturated with available models, expect to see different form factors start to emerge. Sedans and coupes may be positioned for a comeback since they would no longer be constrained by illogical EPA shadow area math. Also, the skateboard platform lends itself to high flexibility design bandwidth for the tophat, the part of the vehicle the customer sees. This is also the point in time where ICE start to see the most significant increases in cost and resultant prices. As EV volume goes up, ICE volume will trend down. This will deteriorate the scale advantage that ICE products have today at the same time that the scale position of EVs improves. In addition to the scale impact on cost, ICE will continue to carry unrecoverable cost for content required to make them compliant from an emissions standpoint. ICE will continue to be viable, but the applications are likely to be consolidated around a few form factors in order to maintain some semblance of scale through use of common components. I expect that ICE pickup trucks are around for the long haul (pun intended) and will be consolidated with the design and manufacture of Class 1 - 3 commercial vehicles. Until such time that EVs can efficiently tow and haul heavy loads for long distance ICE pickups and commercial vehicles will be needed. One of the reasons I’ve been pushing back with our forecasters on EV adoption rates. As long as ICE pickups are available, there will be buyers who will buy them even if an EV pickup can meet their requirements.

The other reason I don’t see EV going 100%, even in the states that have passed ICE bans is the fact that 17% of US households live in multi-family conditions (apartment buildings and complexes, condominiums) and a large percentage of them do not have access to a consistent parking place or charging point. EVs make the most economic sense when the owner can eliminate gasoline purchases in favor of increased electric bills. Until the approach to home charging solutions for multi-family dwellings is solved, ICE will be required to service that part of the population. There are solutions being worked and I mentioned some in this thread https://www.camaro6.com/forums/showp...postcount=2174. But until they become commonplace, EV cannot be 100%.

07-14-2024, 09:32 AM	#2278
Martinjlm Retired fr GM + SP Global Drives: 2017 Camaro Fifty SS Convertible Join Date: Mar 2017 Location: Detroit Posts: 5,942	Round 2 Position of ICE / EV short term & long term In the short term (now - 2030) I expect that we will continue to see more models of EV introduced in the small, small premium, mid-sized and mid-sized premium utility segments. These (along with pickups) are the most popular vehicles in the US auto market and they are highly competitive. I think the most important vehicle on the market right now is the Equinox EV. It’s the first real example of an automaker offering an affordable EV that is usable by most people for all intended design uses. Anybody who has an Equinox as a primary vehicle could easily replace it with an Equinox EV and not miss a beat. The Equinox EV starts at $41,900.Equinox ICE base prices range $27,995 - 34,795. When you factor in content differences the price delta is reduced, since th EV has more standard content than the ICE. Some could argue that the Tesla Model Y should be considered the first affordable, but I have to point out that is not where Model Y started. It is capable of doing everything that any ICE utility in its class is capable of, but it was originally launched with pricing in the $60,000 range and it’s logical to believe that most people consider that it is still priced in that range. Through a series of price reductions it is now priced starting at $45,000. A little more than an Equinox EV, but also in a larger more premium market segment. The average price of a new vehicle in the US 2023 was $48,008 so it falls into the affordable category. So, more entries in the crossover an SUV segments in the short term. That is likely to expand into new entries in the large SUV categories. This is where it gets interesting. The traditional automakers make an incredible amount of profit on their large RWD SUVs. Tahoe / Yukon, Suburban, Escalade, Expedition, Grand Cherokee, etc are all cash cows. So the parent companies are not going to be in any hurry to replace them with EV models. But, non-traditional automakers who have been locked out of this lucrative product segment have nothing to lose and will begin to bring alternative 6+ passenger vehicles with impressive feature content to the segment. The traditional automakers will need to introduce similar EV product simply to defend their turf. The first shots have already been fired. Rivian R1S and Kia EV9 are already well received in market as alternatives to 3 row 6+ passenger ICE utilities. The pricing of the Kia EV9 in particular is right in the middle of the pricing range for Chevrolet Tahoe. Add to that the cost savings of operating on household supplied electricity vs gasoline and the Kia EV9 begins to look more attractive by comparison. The thing is, this is the type of vehicle that is also most considered for long distance family travel and that touches on the biggest concern with EVs in general. Common perception works against 3-row 6+ passenger EV and will slow the adoption, particularly for non-traditional automakers. But when the traditional automakers are pushed into the market, they will need to assist the non-traditional automakers in pushing back on elements of common perception that are factually incorrect. That could be game changing. Perception: It will take hours to charge the EV on road trips. Fact: Effective recharging can by done in roughly 20 - 40 minutes depending on size of battery and vehicle’s charging system capability. Hyundai-Kia currently has the fastest charging system in the industry. The Kia EV9 and can charge from 10% to 80% in 24 minutes Perception: It is difficult to find places to charge. Fact: Every EV sold on the US market today has charging station location information embedded in their navigation systems. These location services target and navigate to charging stations when prompted. In my experience driving an EV and just randomly “checking” to see where charging stations are I have always been able to identify multiple charging locations within 20 miles of my current position. No, I haven’t driven through Iowa, the Dakotas, Montana, and other upper Midwest states that will be among the last to add infrastructure so there’s that. Tesla opening up their Supercharger network to other brands more than doubles the availability to fast charging solutions for anybody considering an EV. Long term (2030 - beyond) I expect to see broader development of additional form factors for EVs. Once the crossover / SUV segments get saturated with available models, expect to see different form factors start to emerge. Sedans and coupes may be positioned for a comeback since they would no longer be constrained by illogical EPA shadow area math. Also, the skateboard platform lends itself to high flexibility design bandwidth for the tophat, the part of the vehicle the customer sees. This is also the point in time where ICE start to see the most significant increases in cost and resultant prices. As EV volume goes up, ICE volume will trend down. This will deteriorate the scale advantage that ICE products have today at the same time that the scale position of EVs improves. In addition to the scale impact on cost, ICE will continue to carry unrecoverable cost for content required to make them compliant from an emissions standpoint. ICE will continue to be viable, but the applications are likely to be consolidated around a few form factors in order to maintain some semblance of scale through use of common components. I expect that ICE pickup trucks are around for the long haul (pun intended) and will be consolidated with the design and manufacture of Class 1 - 3 commercial vehicles. Until such time that EVs can efficiently tow and haul heavy loads for long distance ICE pickups and commercial vehicles will be needed. One of the reasons I’ve been pushing back with our forecasters on EV adoption rates. As long as ICE pickups are available, there will be buyers who will buy them even if an EV pickup can meet their requirements. The other reason I don’t see EV going 100%, even in the states that have passed ICE bans is the fact that 17% of US households live in multi-family conditions (apartment buildings and complexes, condominiums) and a large percentage of them do not have access to a consistent parking place or charging point. EVs make the most economic sense when the owner can eliminate gasoline purchases in favor of increased electric bills. Until the approach to home charging solutions for multi-family dwellings is solved, ICE will be required to service that part of the population. There are solutions being worked and I mentioned some in this thread https://www.camaro6.com/forums/showp...postcount=2174. But until they become commonplace, EV cannot be 100%. __________________ 2017 CAMARO FIFTY SS CONVERTIBLE A8 \| MRC \| NPP \| Nav \| HUD \| GM Performance CAI \| Tony Mamo LT1 V2 Ported TB \| Kooks 1-7/8” LT Headers \| FlexFuel Tune \| Thinkware Q800 Pro front and rear dash cam \| Charcoal Tint for Taillights and 3rd Brakelight \| Orange and Carbon Fiber Bowties \| 1LE Wheels in Gunmetal Gray \| Carbon Fiber Interior Overlays \| Novistretch bra and mirror covers \| Tow hitch for bicycle rack \| Last edited by Martinjlm; 07-14-2024 at 09:53 AM.