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Originally Posted by snizzle
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Exactly. There are way to many factors that affect both fossil fuel prices and electricity prices for anyone to credibly claim they can predict where these things are going to be next year, let alone in 12 years.
There are also a huge array of regulatory hurdles to overcome to expand and upgrade the grid, and those hurdles also have tons of variability depending upon location, which party is in power, what the supplies of needed materials are etc. etc.
In the article I posted they state that it takes
10 years just to get approval yet we're supposed to believe that in 12 years the grid will have triple the capacity it currently does? We're supposed to believe that despite the fact that there haven't been any serious attempts to upgrade the grid in recent memory?
Meanwhile some states have had to deliberately shut off power just to avoid widespread blackouts? This is with the currently minuscule adoption of EVs?
Sorry, but this is a classic case of someone saying 'who are you going to believe, me and my 'experts' that I can talk to whenever I want, or your lying eyes.
My experience with projections, and I've been in the business of making them myself, says that anyone who claims they can predict these things five years out is delusional and 12 years out is laughable.