[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Wyzz Kydd

I agree with some of what you've stated above. I bolded several parts that you present as fact, which I think you should admit are your opinion. You may be right, but then again, you may not.

Two years ago nobody would have predicted that NY would ban gas appliances in new construction, but they have. You can't predict whether the administrative state will ban ICE vehicles or not. Clearly they would like to do it if they thought they could get away with it.

I would at best amend it to say that I know as well as anyone else would know and better than most. Here’s why I say that.

By the time 2035 gets here, the automotive landscape will look a lot different than it looks today.

I’ve been with this company since shortly after I retired from GM. It is the leading supplier of vehicle sales forecasting and vehicle production forecasting. Nine times out of ten if you are looking at a vehicle, powertrain, or component forecast it is from my company or someone to whom we sold the data. It is the leading supplier because over the years it has been the most accurate. Same holds true for powertrain forecasting, technology forecasting, component forecasting and so on and so on. My last 10 years that I was at GM I bought forecasting information from this company. All of the major OEMs and most of the minor ones buy some version or another of our forecasts. About 95% of Tier I suppliers buy our forecasts. So do government agencies, unions, pretty much every entity connected with the auto industry. And I have all of that data available at my fingertips. So, yes, I have an informed view of what is being worked on for 2035.


By 2035, people with more expertise in those areas than either you or me will have developed and implemented solutions to both problems.

I talk to these people.

As the leader for my company’s automotive consulting practice in the Americas I and the consultants who work for me are in contact with the companies that are or soon will be driving the change. We provide them detailed forecasts of where the industry is going, what technology is being implemented when and where, trends in consumer economics and buying practices, and details on pending legislation.

To your point, some things, like NY regulating stoves used in new construction are not easily predictable. On the other hand, that has zip to do with the auto industry so it’s not something I even loosely follow. But all of the tech trends currently moving the auto industry are things that have been on our radar screen for years and we have a strong handle on what’s happening when.

You keep saying that you would be forced into an EV. That is not true.
I can still say that with with the highest degree of confidence. I’d put big money on it and I don’t gamble. Georgia is one of the states that is pretty much standing on the sidelines in the whole electrification transition. There is no motivation for Georgia to move one way or the other. Could they? Of course they could. They could just as easily ban helicopters and motorcycles. Will they? Smart money is on “no”.