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Originally Posted by Chrome383Z
Actually the price of gas will drop, supply/demand. It could very well get really cheap - unless the govt taxes the crap out of it.
I don’t see 5 years. Maybe in affluent areas, I see Teslas regularly, but in the rural town I grew up in I haven’t seen one. And there will be pushback outside of affluent areas as well. They don’t have the infrastructure, hell the affluent areas really don’t have the infrastructure either for anything more then the size of the market now which is just niche.
I like electric cars, but I think 50% at 5 years is optimistic. 10 maybe and a lot would have to happen for that to work as well. :shrug:
If I was a product manager at GM I’d keep a bucket of ICE products in the pipeline (or at least hybrid solutions). If the govt takes a political swing in the opposite direction electric could go the other way… IMO I think it’s a HUGE risk committing to all electric this early in the game.
I work with power plants for work, there is potential for electric prices to jump considerably as well. Running a peaker plant at full capacity that it wasn’t designed to do is going to incur costs. Yeah the grid might be able to support the higher demand, but not at the prices we get now. So look for electric bills to increase significantly to operate your home. And with restrictions on coal and even some pushback on NG that’ll get worse. Power is power. It has to be created somewhere.
If your into investing I’d look at turbine manufacturers and folks in Power Gen. If electric does become mainstream these markets will explode.
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A lot of this could be dead on, but it's likely all at least pretty close. Here a couple of thoughts, including some that I think you sort of hinted at, but didn't directly state...
- While full EV's have been a toy for the 1% for a little while, they are moving a bit more in the direction of being mainstream. The new wall they are pushing up against is a combination of infrastructure to support the significant demand increase for charging and straight-up cash to buy. There are plenty of areas where median income simply will not support the ability to purchase EV's at the price point most are demanding.
- Manufacturers moving to all electric is totally fine. First, it will be at least 5-7 years before any manufacturer truly gets there. Even longer when you consider "GM" to be the manufacturer and not any one of the nameplates. We just lost a dealership in this area because they were unwilling to make the massive investment to support the "all electric future" of Cadillac (they didn't sell enough units to justify the investment). So, you're going to see dealerships fade off, you'll have to travel to major metro areas to actually car shop, and those areas will be happy to sell EV only.
- The used car market is going to boom as manufacturers stop offering ICE-powered cars. Invest in companies like Carvana and Vroom that sell used only as that time draws near and you'll walk away with some nice investment profits.
- "The cloud" exerts a massively larger burden on the electric grid that EV's will for quite a while. As cloud service providers encounter issues because they "break" the grid, money will get spent to improve the public infrastructure (or they will finally build their OWN power generation and remove themselves from the grid completely).