Quote:
Originally Posted by BlaqWhole
While I agree that trucks will likely be the last to go, I still think it will be close. Again, the price of gas will continue to rise until most people are unable to either afford or justify paying the price to own a V8 even in a truck. Then there will be tons of incentives and offers to switch over and a lot of people will do just that. As that happens there will be less people buying V8 trucks which will mean an increase in MSRP. Of course the dealerships will want a piece of the pie and there will be markups.
So yea the truck crowd might hang on a bit longer than most but that is also due to trucks having a much wider variety of uses. You can use it for a family vehicle, you can haul stuff, go grocery shopping, etc. So that will keep them alive for a while longer. But I don't think it will be a whole heck of a lot longer.
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Actually the price of gas will drop, supply/demand. It could very well get really cheap - unless the govt taxes the crap out of it.
I don’t see 5 years. Maybe in affluent areas, I see Teslas regularly, but in the rural town I grew up in I haven’t seen one. And there will be pushback outside of affluent areas as well. They don’t have the infrastructure, hell the affluent areas really don’t have the infrastructure either for anything more then the size of the market now which is just niche.
I like electric cars, but I think 50% at 5 years is optimistic. 10 maybe and a lot would have to happen for that to work as well. :shrug:
If I was a product manager at GM I’d keep a bucket of ICE products in the pipeline (or at least hybrid solutions). If the govt takes a political swing in the opposite direction electric could go the other way… IMO I think it’s a HUGE risk committing to all electric this early in the game.
I work with power plants for work, there is potential for electric prices to jump considerably as well. Running a peaker plant at full capacity that it wasn’t designed to do is going to incur costs. Yeah the grid might be able to support the higher demand, but not at the prices we get now. So look for electric bills to increase significantly to operate your home. And with restrictions on coal and even some pushback on NG that’ll get worse. Power is power. It has to be created somewhere.
If your into investing I’d look at turbine manufacturers and folks in Power Gen. If electric does become mainstream these markets will explode.