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Originally Posted by Martinjlm
You're not wrong. You're just over-applying the situation. There's about a dozen states that have or are considering ICE bans. Which means there are 38 states that are not. So what will consumers in those states drive? A lot will drive BEVs. But a lot will also be driving HEV and PHEV. Both of those have ICE. Some companies (GM) may decide to only offer BEV, but some (Ford, Toyota, Stellantis, BMW, Mercedes) will still offer HEV and PHEV.
Of the 12 states that have or are considering ICE bans, what's the likelihood that all 12 will end up with the same outcome? Fairly low in my estimation. Some might actually pass legislation that says no new cars sold with ICE after 2035. Some may extend it out to 2040 or even later. Some might not be comfortable with 100% zero emissions vehicles and find a way to include HEV and PHEV in the equation. We won't know until the specific legislative pieces are actually brought to the table. Remember, the original California ZEV Mandate required BEV as 10% of all new vehicles sold in California by 2003. That ruled morphed several times to the point where California had not achieved the 10% mark until 1st quarter 2021. Only 18 years after the original "mandate".
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Well to me it goes beyond that. What happens when they get banned in other countries? Will sales in the US be strong enough to justify or support their continued existence? At that point, even if there are no bans, it won't matter because no manufacturers will be producing them anyway. Or the ones that will still produce them will have to jack the price sky high to make a profit. How much you think these diehards will be willing to pay? Or what about the costs of gas itself? When more and more EVs show up and less and less ICEs are out there gas will continue to increase. At what point do you think these diehards will figure that it is too expensive to even drive them? $5 a gallon? $6 a gallon? States banning them is just one piece of the puzzle. At some point cost to produce or operate will make people switch. And again, the government will start offering incentives, tax breaks, etc to get people to switch. On top of that, if even 1 state bans them that will be a heavy blow to an already dying brand. Do you really think that anyone of these people will still be in support when all these factors stare them in the face as a brand is slowly but surely dying around them? LOL!