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Call it a war in Georgia. That's more correct. Russia has yet to be invaded.
For political correctness, allow me to reiterate what is happening.
South Ossetia seceded from Georgia, much like the Confederacy seceded from the Union in the Civil War. In this case, South Ossetia succeeded. Apparently, Russia either wants South Ossetia to remain independent or to be part of Russia. South Ossetia seeks to be included in Russia. Georgia wants to maintain its territorial integrity by maintaining South Ossetia. Before this, Georgia was part of the Russian mainland for over 200 years.
Georgia contains a major oil pipeline that feeds oil to the West. In addition, Georgia has been seeking to partake in the NATO alliance like its southern neighbor, Turkey. NATO has not yet accepted Georgia's application. Additionally, Georgia is a nation supported by the US. In effect, the Russian invasion of Georgia polarizes the United States. This is a unique situation for both countries and the world since this potentially violates Democratic Peace Theory, a theory that concludes that no democracies will declare war on one another since democracies are naturally allied. By creating this conflict, Georgia poses the US and Russia against one another.
Now you ask: "Why did The_Blur put the blame on Georgia?" Georgia began a serious intrusion into its renegade province of South Ossetia. Russia, a country that has granted Russian passports to most civilians in the region, has sought to protect the region. For the civilians in South Ossetia, Russia is the good guy. The United States seeks to keep Georgia allied for economic reasons, specifically regarding oil.
Below are possible outcomes of the current situation.
If Russia annexes only South Ossetia, it will create temporary hostility between the US and Russia.
If Russia annexes Georgia, oil prices in the US and Europe will rise, creating tense relations with Russia and a possible second Cold War.
If Russia seeks to annex multiple former Soviet republics, Russia will be seen as an empire and war will be imminent. Europe and the United States will be forced into a conventional war not unlike World War II. It is important to note that no nation has successfully invaded Russia and caused it to surrender via Moscow due to climate conditions and a strong defense near the capital. Such a war would likely involve nuclear arms at some point early in the war, plummeting the US and Russia into a violent exchange, likely involving catastrophic casualties.
Below is some final analysis.
The US is likely to give diplomatic opposition to Russian tactics regarding the Georgia issue. As a result, Russia will continue its push into Georgia until the nation is totally subdued. Until then, no one will truly know Russia's intentions.
The US is not likely to engage Russian troops since they have the upper hand. Neither country seeks nuclear confrontation. Despite this, Russia has more to gain by being involved than the United States. As a result, expect the US to stay out of the conflict but maintain staunch opposition to Russia in the meantime. Unfortunately, the US is not likely to get involved directly.
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