[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by NW-99SS

For ICE to be gone, Worldwide battery production will have to increase to more than 1000 x current capabilities...and that's just production and doesn't even mention mining resources increases that would also be necessary. It also ignores all infrastructure upgrades.

Point - it will be a slow transition, and if the miraculous battery improvements that I've been hearing about for 25 years never happen, Hydrogen fuel cell will quickly take over the ICE market share and easily out pace EVs due to inefficient batteries and their production.

I was with you until that last sentence. Passenger vehicle application of hydrogen fuel cell will probably never happen. If EVs have an infrastructure problem, then Fuel Cells are screaming “hold my beer”. I think there will be a healthy deployment of Fuel Cell in commercial transport where infrastructure can parallel depot systems and service vehicles with known repeatable routes. With EVs, private vehicle owners quickly find out that they do 90+% of their charging at home. For trips that exceed the battery range (200+ miles) the infrastructure is constantly growing and the option of just taking an ICE vehicle is still available. For FCEV, nobody is refueling at home.