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Old 07-29-2019, 08:26 AM   #91
Martinjlm
Retired fr GM + SP Global
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DGthe3 View Post
My guess is that translates to around 15 thousand pre-orders. Nominally, production at Bowling Green maxes out at around 35k units a year (though they haven't hit that in a while). Call it 3000 per month. For the C8, the 2020 model run is going to start late this year, which is around halfway through the normal production cycle. Then you have ramp-up which takes a couple months before things are at full speed, so the first few months are going to average maybe half-speed.

Assuming they intend on eventually building at the old max rate, I could see maybe 500 cars this December, then 1000 in January. 2000 for Feb. Then 3000 for March, April, May, and June with July being the start of the 2021s. That adds up to 15,500 ... so maybe just treat December's production as a rounding error, taking it down to 15k.

I could just as easily build a case for it being as much as 20k or as little as 10k. I'd bet a dime on 15k, but only a nickle on each of the other two.
^^ This. Plus factor in dealer stock orders.
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