Quote:
Originally Posted by cellsafemode
i'm pretty sure we're at the end of car ownership and variety anyway.
In the next decade or two we will see more lockdown by companies trying to control cars and turn them into cell phones you license and software you subscribe to.
Then we'll see a move towards automatic driving that eliminates human drivers and that will come from so many angles it's guaranteed. Insurance, personal finances, public finances, safety, convenience, speed. All better when humans aren't driving and everything is being orchestrated by a central computer that controls all the cars like chess pieces.
Pollution controls will only get stricter, moving towards electric.
People will get poorer due to cost of living increases and wage stagnation leading towards less cars being bought leading towards consolidation and homogenization.
More regulation and corporate backed laws prohibiting you from modifying cars and raising the bar of entry into the market so only existing mega corps can afford to sell cars.
By the time ford and gm combine nobody will care. Nobody will care which non-descript generic looking car they are ubering in is made by. It'll matter less than it matters what brand of airplane you're flying in and how it looks. And i'm certain i'll see that future in my lifetime. we're already seeing it begin and the momentum is unstoppable because it makes too much sense in every practical way. Owning a car is only a thing now because you have to in most cases as alternatives are not convenient enough and people still have enough expendable cash. In every other measure it's a stupid thing to buy and own. the alternative to ownership is quickly getting into the zone of acceptable for more and more people and is guaranteed to spread until it reaches critical mass. We're going to witness the end of personal vehicle ownership and I think far fewer people are going to mourn it than we'd think.
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"...we're already seeing it begin and the momentum is unstoppable because it makes too much sense in every practical way"
Bingo.
I hate to say it, but I feel the exact same way and I pretty much agree with everything you said. Eventually the only people actually driving will be people living in very non urban areas where it may still be allowed, or perhaps those people whom can afford to drive for fun/sport on tracks. Car enthusiast will be a very small (much smaller than today even) subset of people whom have a love for history, or a means in which they can actually compete whether by hobby or for sport on race tracks.
Ford, GM...any automaker knows that their company as it exists today won't be around forever. I just can't decide how long its going to take before GM is only producing vehicles for sport, and then autonomous (pods if you will) vehicles that people don't actually own, but just ride in to get around. I'm saying somewhere between 20 - 40 years.