Electric Vehicles

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

Why a pickup? That just seems stupid. We already know that nobody wants a Lighting. There is no market.

A lot of people want a Lightning. But only about half as many as Ford originally thought. They are now producing 1,600 per week, not 3,200. Still amounts to about 80,000 per year. Better than Mustang numbers.

[Evergreen6]

Ford sold as many EV Lightnings last year as Chevy sold Camaros in 2022. Camaro beat it in 2023 but that was a one year bump because of the end of the production.

I'm glad to hear Fisker is working with one of the big OE's.

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

A lot of people want a Lightning. But only about half as many as Ford originally thought. They are now producing 1,600 per week, not 3,200. Still amounts to about 80,000 per year. Better than Mustang numbers.

They can produce them but if nobody buys them

How many did they sell last year? My dealership contact says they can't give them away and its a nice truck

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

Originally Posted by Iron Lung Jimmy

They can produce them but if nobody buys them

How many did they sell last year? My dealership contact says they can't give them away and its a nice truck

I looked it up. They sold 24,000 amid rising sales.

My point is only that it seems dumb to go after a market where an already really nice vehicle only sold 24,000. If the market quadrupled and they got half its still not very many

[Silveradoss573]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

A lot of people want a Lightning.

Ford sold over 750,000+ F150's last year which I know you're aware of. Let me repeat that for you though...750,000+ F150's. Lightning sales was roughly only 3% of that total. And I just wonder how many of that 3% had buyer regret soon after? I'm not the smartest guy but that's a pitiful for a vehicle that you claim so many want. Now if you're referring to the svt lightning then I stand corrected...🤣

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Silveradoss573

Ford sold over 750,000+ F150's last year which I know you're aware of. Let me repeat that for you though...750,000+ F150's. Lightning sales was roughly only 3% of that total. And I just wonder how many of that 3% had buyer regret soon after? I'm not the smartest guy but that's a pitiful for a vehicle that you claim so many want. Now if you're referring to the svt lightning then I stand corrected...🤣

Ford does not want to sell anywhere near as many Lightning as the sell F150. That would be a disaster. You want to sell more of the product that has the greater profit margin. Ford needed to build the Lightning as a hedge against Cybertruck. GM needs to build Silverado EV as a hedge against Cybertruck. The basic premise being, rather than letting Cybertruck, place a product in the market as an alternative to Cybertruck (and Rivian R1T) so that if truck buyers felt the need to go electric, at least they would stay within brand. A few conquest sales (non-Ford customers) wouldn't hurt either. And most Lightning sales were conquest sales, so mission accomplished there at least.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by MSS1LE

So the mission was to set up a plant to run two shifts, then scale back drop a shift and move all those people over to ICE production? Darn those Ford people can plan!

To an outsider it looks like they vastly overestimated how many people wanted a vehicle that looks like a truck but can’t do most things trucks can do. Then they had to scale back production of this ‘truck’ because dealers had a year supply on their lots and sales were abysmal.

If this is mission accomplished I would hate to see what failure looks like.

The mission was to blunt the impact of a Tesla assault on the pickup truck cash cow and to develop an EV truck that would conquest new customers for Ford without cannabalizing F150 sales. Mission accomplished. The mission was also to not lose your ass while doing that. That mission is still ongoing.

FWIW - I’m about 30’ from one of Ford’s top product planners as I type this.

[Evergreen6]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

The mission was to blunt the impact of a Tesla assault on the pickup truck cash cow and to develop an EV truck that would conquest new customers for Ford without cannabalizing F150 sales. Mission accomplished. The mission was also to not lose your ass while doing that. That mission is still ongoing.

FWIW - I’m about 30’ from one of Ford’s top product planners as I type this.

I'd be curious on your perspective on "blunt[ing] the impact of a Tesla assault on the pickup truck cash cow".

I don't think Tesla was ever a threat to the pickup truck market even with an EV. Certainly not the Cybertruk. Ford was first to market with anything resembling a full-size gas pickup. Do you think they just wanted to be first, or were they hedging against a real threat (if so, what?)

Losing their ass...I'm sure development costs for the Lightning were huge. At some point those costs are recovered. What does that look like for Ford? Isn't the thought that once all these huge startup costs are paid for that EV's are ultimately cheaper to manufacture than their gas counterparts?

[Iron Lung Jimmy]

IMO the Cybertruck is to pickups what the Hummer was to SUV's. In other words, scant few people are going to cross shop a Lightning and Cybertruck. So I don't know what they expected to blunt.

Also IMO, product planners and executives work in an echo chamber. Groupthink takes over and the herd, convinced they are all brilliant, moves in an unfortunate direction. Either that or there is pressure from on high and nobody dares step in front of the train that is headed for derailment. I've been in both rooms.

[Evergreen6]

This is an assumption, but I don't think any Product owner for Ford ever envisioned a utilitarian truck shopper to cross-shop a gas and EV full-size pickup. I think Ford envisioned the Lightning would appeal to the majority of pickup truck buyers who want a high-riding full-size sedan with a 5' open bed so they can buy a big TV at costco and the occasional potted plant from a nursery.

The work truck makes some sense. Look around a modern construction site and a full-size pickup is often used as a tool to keep someone warm while they make phone calls.

[genxer]

Originally Posted by Martinjlm

The mission was to blunt the impact of a Tesla assault on the pickup truck cash cow and to develop an EV truck that would conquest new customers for Ford without cannabalizing F150 sales. Mission accomplished. The mission was also to not lose your ass while doing that. That mission is still ongoing.

FWIW - I’m about 30’ from one of Ford’s top product planners as I type this.

It's worth mentioning hurting Rivian's chance to hang around as a Ford or gm goal. But the topic does sound like c.y.a. speak from the MBAs.

Is there any talk of US manufacturers pursuing battery swapping? One of the China companies does it. I imagine there'd have to be an American consensus standardized pack size or two, to cover luxury and premium crossovers, and other segments use dc charging or back off from BEV.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Evergreen6

I'd be curious on your perspective on "blunt[ing] the impact of a Tesla assault on the pickup truck cash cow".

I don't think Tesla was ever a threat to the pickup truck market even with an EV. Certainly not the Cybertruk. Ford was first to market with anything resembling a full-size gas pickup. Do you think they just wanted to be first, or were they hedging against a real threat (if so, what?)

Losing their ass...I'm sure development costs for the Lightning were huge. At some point those costs are recovered. What does that look like for Ford? Isn't the thought that once all these huge startup costs are paid for that EV's are ultimately cheaper to manufacture than their gas counterparts?

When Tesla announced Model S they were ignored. Model S ate S-Class, 7-Series, and A7/8 lunch.

When Tesla announced Model X people laughed at the Falcon doors and otherwise ignored them. Model X ate X7 lunch.

When Tesla launched Model 3 people paid more attention. It still ate 3-Series, C-Class, and A3/5 lunch.

When Tesla launched Model Y people paid a lot of attention and it is still eating everyone’s lunch.

When Tesla revealed Cybertruck it was aimed directly at the D3 family jewels. They paid attention and developed Lightning and Silverado EV to protect the family jewels. Now that Cybertruck is here it’s pretty easy to say “meh, there wasn’t really anything to worry about”. But after watching what happened when OEMs ignored the Model S and Model X, they weren’t going to take any chances. Tesla had all intention of being the 1st EV truck. Because of Rivian, Ford and GM actually addressing the threat head on, and Tesla’s self-inflicted wound of being 2 years late to market, they were 4th, not 1st. Had they launched on time they would have been second to Rivian.

Most of the development costs associated with Lightning should be transferable to future Ford EV product. What is NOT transferable is manufacturing plant infrastructure. For that I give Ford credit for cancelling the second shift and even more so for putting the brakes on capacity installation at Blue Oval campus. That campus can now be targeted to manufacture of other EVs. Same with GM Orion (Silverado EV plant #2).

[Capricio]

Originally Posted by Evergreen6

Most, but not all. So, I'm right again! So how much in taxes do they get away with not paying? I haven't seen a number quoted yet. Afraid to admit what a mooch they are?

What am I now your research assistant for the green agenda? Find your own statistics. The article I linked indicates they pay an overall rate of 45%. More than most other industries, especially compared green energy providers.

[Martinjlm]

Originally Posted by Evergreen6

This is an assumption, but I don't think any Product owner for Ford ever envisioned a utilitarian truck shopper to cross-shop a gas and EV full-size pickup. I think Ford envisioned the Lightning would appeal to the majority of pickup truck buyers who want a high-riding full-size sedan with a 5' open bed so they can buy a big TV at costco and the occasional potted plant from a nursery.

The work truck makes some sense. Look around a modern construction site and a full-size pickup is often used as a tool to keep someone warm while they make phone calls.

The mistake Ford may have made is if they looked at the data and saw that the majority of F150 buyers (not F250 or F350) use their car as family / personal transport with very little towing and hauling, they may have been basing their capacity plans on too high a number based on that premise. I would have very likely made the same mistake. It’s one they will recover from.

The work truck makes a lot of sense especially if you consider that often the site manager is the primary user of the work truck. Add to it the capability to power small tools and it makes an attractive package.