C7 CONSTRAINTS AND AVAILABILITY

[Richardlord]

There is much conversation about C7 “constraints” (lack of availability of certain options) limiting and delaying production of C7 orders. The three most noted culprits are the Z51 Package, Carbon Fiber Interior Trim (FAY), and Competition Seats (AE4). I looked at the website of the biggest of the big dealers (Kerbeck) that lists C7s for sale and sold with their options to get a snapshot sense of what optioned C7s Chevy has and is producing for Kerbeck. I conducted an analysis of these data, and while there may be a host of variables and reasons Kerbeck has these C7s optioned as they are, what these C7s have and don’t have as options may be telling as to the real-time status of constraints. I qualify this statement as for example we don’t know what Kerbeck ordered and what it had to accept as to availability. Kerbeck also may not have listed all options including the 3 culprits. Additionally, Kerbeck may not have listed sold special orders. Keeping these and other possible factors in mind, the following is my quick and dirty analysis, and you may draw your own conclusions from the results. The math is correct within reason if you are of the math-checking kind.

Kerbeck has an allocation of 1,277 C7s, and lists 82 for sale or sold with 23 sold. Kerbeck list 4 categories of C7s – In Stock Coupes, In Stock Verts, In Bound Coupes, and In Bound Verts. Presumably, In Bound means ordered but not yet in stock. Kerbeck lists some of the In Bounds as sold. The following are some of the more interesting tabulations of these data by options. You may do your own analysis.

In Stock Coupes:
31 with 14 sold
3 - Z51s at MSRP (1 sold) – No FAY or AE4
27 - Non-Z51s $2,000 below MSRP (13 sold)
1 – Non Z51 $500 below MSRP (has FAY but not sold)
1 – FAY
No AE4s

In Stock Verts:
4 with 3 sold
All at MSRP
No Z51s
2 – FAYs (1 sold)
No AE4s

In Bound Coupes:
26 (1 sold)
No Discounts
12 - Z51s
14 – Non Z51s
No FAY
1 - AE4 on a Z51 (sold)

In Bound Verts:
21 (5 sold)
No Discounts
No Z51s
2 - FAYs
No AE4s

Quick Summary of Select Stats:
82 C7s
57 Coupes
25 Verts
16 – Z51s
5 – FAYs
1 – AE4

Again, the Kerbeck data analysis may not be conclusive of anything about constraints, but is telling as to what the largest C7 dealer has inventoried and available.

Note: This is real quick and dirty math and analysis and so no nitpicking please as to any errors, where there very well may be some (I have noticed some nitpickiness on this forum). Also, keep in mind the data shall change as Kerbeck updates the web information. If you find any errors, I shall make corrections. Also, if you see anything else of interest in the Kerbeck data from its website, please note that.

This is the Kerbeck site:

http://www.kerbeck.com/kerbeck/kerbeck.nsf/new_corvette_inventory

[Glen e]

What does this tell us?...not sure I see the point you are making.....

[Richardlord]

Originally Posted by Glen e

What does this tell us?...not sure I see the point you are making.....

The data may suggest a number of things - I shall wait to see what others may make of these data before fully commenting - However, Kerbeck is discounting a number of vehicles $2,000 below MSRP that are not Z51s, and don't have FAY or AE4, and what may that suggest? - The one non Z51 car it has with FAY is discounted at $500 rather than $2,000, what may that suggest? - As Kerbeck has a limited number of Z51s and very few C7s with FAY or AE4, what may that suggest? - Kerbeck is not yet discounting Verts - Maybe, supply V demand issues related to constraint problems? Seems odd that Kerbeck should have so many C7s that don't have what so many of us want, like 75% of us want Z51s, thus Kerbech is discounting them by $2,000, and so what may that suggest? - So, the data may suggest any number of things in real-time as of today.

There also are some givens here; like the given that Chevy isn't going to stop production because it is unable to fulfill orders exactly. If all of us order FAY and Chevy has none, it is still going to produce C7s wiithout FAY. Those of us who shall only settle for FAY shall just have to wait while Chevy builds cars and sells them with the advice, conscent, and sometimes coercion (or should I say incentives) to the Kerbecks that figure sooner than later they shall sell them. But even the Kerbecks must have a limit as to what they can and are willling to accept. It would not surprise me if Chevy soon opens up allocation to the other 2,000 Chevy dealers to keep the assembly line going and move cars while it waits for parts to fulfill the harder orders to fill given constraits. Again, 75% of us want Z51s and it appears a great many us want FAY, but Kerbeck has so few of theses C7s on hand or order. It is now just getting a number Z51s and it appears few to no FAYs and AE4s. I believe the Kerbeck inventory speaks volumes in this regard and to still existing real-time contraints.

I believe the Kerbeck (and Conti) inventory bears watching as a bell-weather, weather vane, or barometer of C7 demand, supply, and related contraints. My interest in seeing what is going on with Kerbeck is that I have a highly optioned 3LT Z51 Vert with FAY on order, and my dealer tells me (2 weeks ago) if I am willing drop the FAY he can get me my C7, but if not, he does not know when. So, it appears that FAY remains a constraint issue. As Kerbeck has few to no C7 FAYs, when it begins to get some, as I am sure it shall want some, and have some on order; that may be a good sign the FAY constraint has eased and I may actually get my C7 soon thereafter. Looks like Conti is now getting more FAYs so maybe availabilty is increasiing.

The following is a good explanation back in July from Conti on constraints related to allocation and what it orders, gets, and when from Chevy.

http://www.corvetteconti.com/blog/?p=19151#more-19151