What if?
 

First let me say that I don't think this will happen.

What if GM releases the Camaro and the sales are low? How badly will this damage GM? With all of the press still pumping up Honda and Toyota as the "best" cars in the U.S., will this signify a massive shift in the U.S. market?

Obviously all of us here are GM and/or Camaro fans, so we will be doing what we can to have one in our garage; but what about everyone else? If GM plans to sell 100,000 per year, and that's what they are estimating, what would happen if sales were actually 50,000? As an example, the recent GTO did not reach the numbers they had hoped for and it lasted only a few model years. It seems to me that GM is banking a lot on the new Zeta platform to reinvigorate their sales in the sedan and coupe markets. (not that it's a bad idea)

Thoughts?

If the car were to come out now, sales would easily hit 100,000-150,000 and firmly own the biggest chunk of the muscle market. But its hard to say what will happen in 2009. Depends on what the competition does and what the imports do. The early debut and late release make it very difficult to predict what will happen.

The difference with the GTO is that the GTO was never intended to be a high volume car to begin with.

They produced only 17,000 in 2004. Sales dipped to around 12,000 to 13,000, the next two years with the LS2 version (which was below GMs projections), but it was still wasn't intended to sell in massive numbers. If it were I think the GTO would have come with a V6 option too.

The GTO was also cancelled because they didn't want to renew a platform that was getting replaced soon anyway. The GTO wasn't as bad of a car as many people made it out to be.


For the sake of the question, if the numbers for the Camaro tanked, I wouldn't expect this generation of Camaros to last more than a year or two. It would also be a big enough kick in GM's pants that it could affect their overall reputation and hurt sales in other areas.

One thing to remember, the online Camaro fans are the minority car owners out there.

The Holden/Pontiac GTO was only intended to be out of a few years from the beginning.

First off, it doesn't really matter when this car comes out, it will sell 100,000+ units in its first year. My concern is how it will do in the 3rd and 4th MY runs, but I am confident that it is a fresh enough look that it will do ok. I really believe pricing is going to be a key factor with this Camaro. IMO if they can come out with a V-6 model that they can price a few hundred less than a similar Mustang, then they will be set. I mean, lets be honest, the people who buy the V-6s are typically looking for the sporty appearance, not the power.

Either way, the Camaro alone can not make or break GMs future. Now if ALL of the zeta cars failed to sell (practically impossible) then there would be a crisis. I mean, over the past year GM has posted stronger and stronger profits each quarter without the Camaro.

As for the GTO... it was never intended to be a high volume car from the start, nor was it intended to have a long model year run...

EDIT: It looks like a few of you beat me to the punch about the GTO.... excuse the duplicated info.

I absolutely agree, pricing will be key. Muscle cars traditionally are supposed to be affordable power, and I really hope the Camaro's don't price themselves out of the market.

I believe another key to its long term success is frequent updates. I believe GM is doing much better in this department. By the 4th model year, they'd better have some significant updates ready to roll out, be it engine upgrades or interior improvements. They can't go 10 years on a particular design as in decades past.

I dont believe they will sell 150,000 the first year because of the dealers. They are probaly going to jack them way up for the first year like the Z06 i was talking about that with a salesman he believes that for the first year you would be able to buy a corvette cheaper than the camaro. I kind of belive him.

It wouldn't surprise me. I really hope that doesn't happen, because then I will have to wait even longer to get my Camaro,

I believe it for the V-8 models but not the V-6.... those things will be hitting dealers lots so fast they they will be able to keep up with demand.

150,000 does seem fairly high, but I doubt they will have a problem hitting 100,000.

Even for the V-8 models, it seems unlikely that the demand will greatly outweigh the supply for a full year, but I guess that really depends on how how many they plan to make in the first year.

GM will make their sales. I can't tell you how many people were standing around both concepts who were seeing it for the very first time. Males and females alike who had never seen it were in awe. Those are the types of people who aren't enthusiasts like us. They wanted it. Yes....it will sell.

I do not doubt that they will sell. I think the new Camaro's design will help it to appeal to a much broader range of people. The 4th gen Camaro was a very strong masculine design, where as the 5th gen, inmy opinion, still retains that muscular design but is more soft around the edges (If that makes sense... it is hard for me to describe).

I think this is what has helped fuel the Muskrat's sales for so long. It is a car that guys see as masculine and strong, but one that girls can look at and say it is "cute".

I think the only thing that will prevent it from selling huge numbers in its first year is GMs inability to keep up with demand and thus creating dealer markups. Although, I can't see this being a problem past the first half of the year.

Camaros are going to sell like hotcakes, tons of dealers already have waiting lists.

The supply has to meet the demand though. If dealers are marking them up I will refuse to buy one even though I've been dreaming about owning another since I sold my '85.